Predictions of largest battery M3 vs. MS 75?

[Erleichda]

Now that the Model S has changed prices/configurations I think we know the bottom target where the S will overlap with the highest cost Model 3.

For comparison:
Model S 75kw 249 mi range
Base price $69,500

So what are your predictions for the upper-end Model 3? We all know the first models will be RWD and the upper end will initially be a P model if history repeats itself

Mine:
55kw base model RWD with 215 mi. $35k
70kw RWD with 250mi for $50k
P70kw RWD with 245 mi $65k

The P70 Model 3 has to differentiate from the base Model S 75 at $69,500 right?? I'm guessing it's top of the line performance and similar range at $65k.

 

[Tam]

Why stopped at 70 kWh when Elon Musk says:

Tesla Model 3’s wheelbase allows for a battery pack up to 75 kWh, says Elon Musk

$35K sounds about right but $50K & $65K don't look right and it seems to be too expensive for Model 3 longer range.

 

[Waiting4M3]

55kwh, 215mi, $35K
75kwh, 245mi, $48K
P75D, $63K
EAP/FSD same pricing as MS/X, not necessarily $5/3K, pricing may come down across the board when M3 volume kicks in.

 

[Sparky22]

55kwh, 215mi, $35K
75kwh, 245mi, $48K
P75D, $63K
EAP/FSD same pricing as MS/X, not necessarily $5/3K, pricing may come down across the board when M3 volume kicks in.

75kwh will be over 300 miles, based on the new cells and lighter vehicle.

 

[Erleichda]

55kwh, 215mi, $35K
75kwh, 245mi, $48K
P75D, $63K
EAP/FSD same pricing as MS/X, not necessarily $5/3K, pricing may come down across the board when M3 volume kicks in.

Wouldn't a 75kw in the M3 do more than 245mi (in the S it does 249...different size, drag, weight and batt chemistry)

 

[Waiting4M3]

Wouldn't a 75kw in the M3 do more than 245mi (in the S it does 249...different size, drag, weight and batt chemistry)

Yes, I think I did my math wrong.

 

[Erleichda]

But who would buy a MS 75kw at 249 mi then if it costs $69.5??

I see a weird positioning problem for the longer range M3...

 

[tsla007]

15kw will be about 6500 more and not 13k more. Tesla still makes 100% profit on batteries.

 

[zer0cool]

M3 75 and 75D are going to be around 280-290 mile range. MS75 is at 249 and M3 is hundreds of pounds lighter so the range should be significantly more.

60 will start at 35 and 75 should be about 7k more, which was the upgrade price before, and about the cost of battery that Tesla has historically charged. D will add 3-5k, probably closer to 3 than 5 since AWD option on this class is generally less than 3k. Tesla can charge more than regular ICE cars for AWD since D brings about longer range and possibly more performance. P, depending on how much boost it is, can be a pretty large premium. Just think 340 vs. M3,15+k difference.

So assuming 3k D option, base 60 starting at 35k, 75D at 45k and P75D starting at 60k. This puts the M3 a few k below the starting price of corresponding BMW cars, for a price competitive advantage.

 

[Erleichda]

M3 75 and 75D are going to be around 270-280 mile range. MS75D is at 249 and M3 is hundreds of pounds lighter so the range should be significantly more.

60 will start at 35 and 75 should be about 7k more, which was the upgrade price before, and about the cost of battery that Tesla has historically charged. D will add 3-5k, probably closer to 3 than 5 since AWD option on this class is generally less than 3k. Tesla can charge more than regular ICE cars for AWD since D brings about longer range and possibly more performance. P, depending on how much boost it is, can be a pretty large premium. Just think 340 vs. M3,15+k difference.

So assuming 3k D option, base 60 starting at 35k, 75D at 45k and P75D starting at 60k. This puts the M3 a few k below the starting price of corresponding BMW cars, for a price competitive advantage.

So similar to what is above. However, I still think a 75D M3 270mi at $45 - 50k stock would make the MS 75kw 249 mi obsolete, no? Anyone? It isn't making sense to me. Unless.. the Model S 75kw goes away...only 85 and 100. Aha!

 

[JSkrehot]

55kwh, 215mi, $35K
75kwh, 245mi, $48K
P75D, $63K
EAP/FSD same pricing as MS/X, not necessarily $5/3K, pricing may come down across the board when M3 volume kicks in.

do simple math, your numbers are insanely off

 

[zer0cool]

So similar to what is above. However, I still think a 75D M3 270mi at $45 - 50k stock would make the MS 75kw 249 mi obsolete, no? Anyone? It isn't making sense to me. Unless.. the Model S 75kw goes away...only 85 and 100. Aha!

I mean a BMW 3 series with the same engine as a 7 series will also accelerate faster, handle better and be a better driving machine. Theoretically, by BMW marketing standards, that would make 7 series obsolete since 3 series is definitely the superior driving machine. However a 7 is bigger, rides more comfortable and is certainly more luxurious inside. The Model S is supposed to fill the same role as that. However it's not really that luxurious today...

Moreover, on EVs, range is KING. So, ya I think the Model 3 will make the shorter ranged Model S obsolete... Until probably the next gen Model S, when they make it more of a luxury and tech tour de force.

 

[frozenpenguin]

My Predictions:

55kw, 240mi, $35K
70kw, 305mi, $42K
P Model will add, $20K to base cost, AWD will add $3000

I also think that during the July reveal, Elon will surprise that the S/X will now be using the new 2170 packs and range across the board for S/X will get a significant bump.

 

[WileyTheMan]

The high-end battery for the TM3 *has* to blow the doors off what the Bolt can do. Musk only said that the 3 won't top out the range of the Model S, which can be taken as "not any better than the 100D". I'm thinking the base battery will meet or exceed the Bolt.

 

[Waiting4M3]

do simple math, your numbers are insanely off

I know already, see post #6, jeez

 

[eisbock]

75kwh will be over 300 miles, based on the new cells and lighter vehicle.

I highly doubt that. Model 3 won't be much lighter than Model S since it has a lot more steel, and there's no way the new battery chemistry is more than 20% more efficient than the current cells.

I'd say we're looking at 275 miles.

It'll be hard to accurately measure the range though since it'll vary quite a bit more at highway speeds if the car truly has a .21 Cd. You might get 10-15 more miles than a S75 when driving around town, but you could get 30-40 more miles when driving on the highway.

 

[acentre]

I think,based upon declining battery costs, that the Model 3 will have a 60kwh pack on the base model. The same as the Bolt.

 

[eisbock]

I think,based upon declining battery costs, that the Model 3 will have a 60kwh pack on the base model. The same as the Bolt.

Does anybody have the exact quote from Jeff Evanson that confirms the battery pack will be 55kWh? All the articles I have seen just talk about how he said this (and each article says he said it in a slightly different way), but I don't see any quotes or transcripts.

Could it be possible that he was just talking a big game and saying something like "we're so much better than GM that we can do it with less battery!" Was it actual, official confirmation?

If not, I suspect @acentre is on the right track and that Model 3 will have a 60kWh battery. Sure, they could probably hit the hairy edge of their goals with less, but a more realistic range in varying conditions would be best achievable by a larger battery. It would also beat the Bolt, no questions asked.

Bear in mind too that this "confirmation" of a 55kWh battery was made right after the reveal before pencils down. It's entirely possible Tesla changed their plans when Bolt range rumors started popping up. Elon's "oh so little faith" tweet hints toward this. I'm not sure he would say such a thing in reference to the upgraded Model 3. "lol so little faith that you think the base Bolt will beat our high-end Model 3." That's not even worth bragging about, especially when looking at the price difference.

Before any of you start on about the Bolt not being competition for Model 3, both Tesla and Elon have responded to several comparisons between the cars. There is clearly pride on the line when dealing with the first affordable high range EVs. To say that these two cars do not affect each other whatsoever is simply untrue.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

But who would buy a MS 75kw at 249 mi then if it costs $69.5??

I see a weird positioning problem for the longer range M3...

Someone who wants a bigger, fancier car?

Given that Model 3 is the car Tesla has been working its way towards, I don't think that Tesla's going to be worried about losing sales of the S75 to a well-optioned 375. It's the high-end S sales that it really wants to keep.

 

[EvanLin]

Actually we can estimate the range and kWh based on existing evidence, not just guessing.
Estimating specs from battery modules