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Predictions of non-owner base model 3 (SR) deliveries

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by dm33, Feb 10, 2018.

?

Quarter the base model 3 will be available to non-owners

  1. Q1 2019

    12 vote(s)
    41.4%
  2. Q2 2019

    10 vote(s)
    34.5%
  3. 2nd half 2019

    7 vote(s)
    24.1%
  4. 2020

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Later than 2020

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Never. Base model price increase or required options.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. dm33

    dm33 Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2013
    Messages:
    186
    Location:
    Raleigh, nc
    What do folks predict as the actual timeframe for availability of the base model 3 to non-owners not in California but in the US?

    How did the delays play out for the Model S and X? How long was the delay from initial reservation until you could get one?
     
  2. sreams

    sreams Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2017
    Messages:
    732
    Location:
    Sacramento, CA
    My non-owner estimator says Late 2018 for the base model. I don't necessarily think it will be available to me by then, but why no option for Late 2018 in the poll?
     
    • Like x 1
  3. Qbenjamin

    Qbenjamin Frugal But Classy!

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2017
    Messages:
    880
    Location:
    Dayton
    I highly doubt that Tesla will start producing any SR vehicles until they've completely exhausted all of the customers that will pay for the LR (higher profit margins).
     
  4. dm33

    dm33 Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2013
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    Location:
    Raleigh, nc
    I forgot until I was at the end of the poll. Didn’t see an easy way to add it at the top. Now I don’t see a way to edit the poll at all.
     
  5. dvanbrunt

    dvanbrunt Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2013
    Messages:
    5
    Location:
    Chicago
    I got on the waiting list in Feb of last year-- so a year ago and counting. Originally listed as the longer range four-wheel drive model. Then the estimate was pushed back. I changed my order to the "first run" long range rear-wheel drive, the ones they are making now, after reading about snow performance being OK.... the estimator then moved it up to close to my original estimate. Now it's slipped back again...

    My wife says, "You are NEVER going to see that car... "

    Beginning to wonder if she is right.

    Any words of wisdom on buying a USED Model S? I see some 2017's at TrueCar that were sold as rentals according to CarFax, but the prices are not that much different than new. I've paid less for houses (that give a return on investment when used as rentals).

    Thoughts on used?
     
  6. azred

    azred Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    1,723
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    I hope you are right even though it means growing criticism of the company that has been bragging about a $35,000 affordable Tesla for two years. The red ink is more concerning to me than the bad publicity — and the angry $1000 depositors posting here who thought they would get a Tesla for the price of a Civic after tax credits. I suppose if some tech company like Apple bought Tesla it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing but I’d much rather see Tesla survive and thrive.
     
  7. montreid

    montreid Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    217
    Location:
    san diego,ca
    Sadly, the Gigafactory production delays obliterated any possibility of the base model getting in before the expiration of the Federal tax credit. I have no malice against Tesla for trying to optimize profits per---which means we have the hard $9K decision of LR vs SR if want to get into a Tesla vs the competition. It's buying more car than we truly need.

    This is also sad and relatively unfair field for Tesla (and GM and Nissan) as an early adopter of the EV. The likes of Kia and Honda now have a decided advantage once the big BEV three cross the 200k mark. The credit should work like X Prize IMHO.

    If Tesla gets to the SR with Fed credit in hand, we'll configure and be happy to support an American company and enjoy the BEV. If not...Niro EV and Leaf 2.0 continues to be squarely in our eyesight.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Oct 26, 2012
    Messages:
    3,759
    Location:
    Santa Cruz, CA
    Before the expiration of the full tax credit.
     
  9. dm33

    dm33 Member

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    May 10, 2013
    Messages:
    186
    Location:
    Raleigh, nc
    Tesla hasn't said when the LR model will be available by itself either. There is no $44k configuration available yet. Only $49k. Right now its a $14k add on.
     
  10. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2012
    Messages:
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    Location:
    Santa Cruz, CA
    Just to be clear, even if this is true it's not when they can't sell any more LR cars (because that will never be true), but when they can't sell 100% of each months production as LR cars. That could easily be true by the end of this year.
     
  11. 206er

    206er Member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2017
    Messages:
    591
    Location:
    Seattle, WA USA
    Where's the "You won't care" option?
     

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