Predictions vs actuals, road trip from Boise to Phoenix in Winter

For anyone who's curious what it's like to take a long road trip with a MYP in winter, here's some less than scientific stats I tracked on my journey. I've got a '22 MYP and upgraded my wheels to the TSportline 19's so there's a small possibility that the range was slightly better. However, with it being winter, tbd if that did anything to offset the range drop from the cold (hence why this is less than scientific). For what it's worth, I did the same drive from Boise to Phoenix back in August on the stock 21's and from what I recall, the range estimates on 21's were less favorable than they were on the 19's. Anyway, here's the numbers I captured:

For the first two charge stops, it was 3°F outside with a -11°F windchill, so I was pretty happy with the range predictions given the extreme conditions.

 

[Watts_Up]

Interesting report, driving North-South between the major East-West corridors with an EV
is challenging in some areas because of the distance between Superchargers
or the need some time to make some detours.

I was wondering how did you determined the 'Arrival Estimate' ?
- is it from using ABRP (A Better Route Planner) or was what the NAP (Navigate on Autopilot)
was showing after charging and going to the next destination?

About the 'Speed', is it the average speed or top speed,
or the speed that ABRP uses when making the range estimate?

It you can, it would be interesting to show the driving time for each leg,
and the charging time especially for those above 90%
or when arriving with less than 20% because the pre-heating might have not worked,
and if it was using a V2 or V3 charger.

Note: For some legs, you used almost the full capacity of the battery.
This would had made me very nervous, when driving in areas with low Superchargers density,
because of the possible detours when there is an accident or road constructions,
or weather change such as not anticipated high wind.
Reducing speed would in this case help to improve the range but reducing speed is hard...

[ Range usage ]
1 - 90%
2 - 31%
3 - 73%
4 - 77%
5 - 61%
6 - 86%
7 - 72%
8 - 58%

 

[theothertom]

Good data. thanks

 

[BearlyAdulting]

I was wondering how did you determined the 'Arrival Estimate' ?

Whenever I finished charging at a Supercharger, whatever Tesla said my estimated arrival SOC for the next charger is what I recorded.

About the 'Speed', is it the average speed or top speed,

I went with what my average speed was while driving. Basically just set Autopilot and recorded that speed. Speeds in Idaho and Utah are 80mph so that's why my average speeds are so high.

This would had made me very nervous, when driving in areas with low Superchargers density,

LOL tell me about it. Look at a Supercharger map in Idaho/ Utah…there's no density (I wish there was though). There's only whatever charger is coming up next. You don't really have options lol

 

[tivoboy]

Are you calculating SPEED or using a number you set or recall? I know it’s hard to cover time for a distance that includes offramps and super chargers stops, etc. I find that I drive between about 80-83, but over a two hour period I’m actually covering ~ 150 miles, so actual AVG is 75.. that makes sense and since actual speed is a BIG factor in wh/mile calcs I wonder how it was done?

Clearly very low temps are not optimal for energy efficiency put towards the driving portion of use. In my 2018 M3 LR, I find even with highway speeds up at 80-83, I can avg about 265 barring significant elevation changes. I’m happy with that.

I find that the new energy graph for a NAV assisted drive shows pretty darn close to the expected SOC at destination. Often exact (as you have above) and or within about 1-5% overall. For the car not knowing how fast one is going to drive, exactly what the weather conditions are over a stated route (wind, temp, etc) it‘s doing a pretty darn good job at getting it much closer to right than I would have expected.

 

[BearlyAdulting]

Are you calculating SPEED or using a number you set or recall?

I was going with a super unofficial measure of speed. Whatever I set autopilot to between superchargers is the number that I used for speed.

I can avg about 265 barring significant elevation changes.

That's incredible! I don't get anything close to that, but I do have a bit of a lead foot.

I find that the new energy graph for a NAV assisted drive shows pretty darn close to the expected SOC at destination.

Tell me about it. That was what this test was really about for me. I wanted to know what sort of percentage +/- I should keep in mind when looking at Tesla's estimated battery remainder when I arrive at a charger. I think you nailed it in that 1-5% difference is a good anchor point. When you live where I live and only have a single charger option when on a roadtrip, it's nice to have peace of mind that I can make it. So when my next destination says I'll arrive with 12% battery remaining, I now know that number range is really somewhere between 7%-19%.

 

[804son]

The scenery at the Twin Falls supercharger is fantastic!

 

[tander]

Thanks, been on the fence about trying Ketchum-Stanley-Boise but this points to it being a hard no.