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Predictions

Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by sjoshuaj, Oct 28, 2011.

  1. sjoshuaj

    sjoshuaj Member

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    Here are my predictions....

    Model S (Sedan)
    Production Year 2012 (2nd generation platform)
    4 Doors, 5 + 2 (Rear Facing) Seats, & Aluminum Body.
    160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
    0 to 60 MPH in 4.5 seconds
    Starting at 57,400

    Model X (Crossover)
    Production Year 2013 (2nd generation platform)
    4 Doors, 7 Seats, Off Road / Towing Features, & Aluminum Body.
    160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
    0 to 60 MPH in 4.8 seconds
    Starting at 67,400

    Model S (Sedan) Convertible
    Production Year 2014 (2nd generation platform)
    4 Doors, 5 Seats, & Aluminum Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
    160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
    0 to 60 MPH in 4.6 seconds
    Starting at 71,400

    Model R (Roadster)
    Production Year 2015 (3rd generation platform)
    2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body.
    300 mile range (upgraded to 370 mile range in 2016)
    0 to 60 MPH in 2.7 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
    Starting at 87,400

    Model C (Coupe)
    Production Year 2016 (3rd generation platform)
    2 Doors, 4 Seats, & Aluminum Body.
    160, 230, or 300 mile range
    0 to 60 MPH in 5.5 seconds
    Starting at 37,400

    Model R (Roadster) Convertible
    Production Year 2017 (3rd generation platform)
    2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
    370 mile range
    0 to 60 MPH in 2.8 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
    Starting at 101,400

    Sport edition offered on all models.
    All-wheel drive offered on all models (coming to Model S in 2013).
     
  2. Mycroft

    Mycroft Life happens

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    So, I have until 2017 to save up another $100,000 eh?

    2.8 secs? Bring it on! :love:
     
  3. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    #3 TEG, Oct 28, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2011
    These caught my attention:

    I am not sure that Tesla would want to try again with the 2 speed.
    The KISS approach on their current gearbox seems to be working out.
    Shifting introduces complexity and possible problems even if only for 2 gears.

    Also, AWD in all models? Maybe, but not sure. Saucy prediction.
     
  4. William13

    William13 Member

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    I paid for and read the entire, lengthy analysis from Morgan Stanley. It was not cobbled together from press releases. They actually had multiple valid cash flow predictions/analyses.

    I also think that sjoshuoj is close but overly optimistic about the ability of Tesla to put out so many models so quickly. The cash flow will not allow this expansion so quickly without big investments from outside.
     
  5. zack

    zack Member

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    Why raise the price $14,000 and reduce performance? I don't get this prediction.
     
  6. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Convertibles are usually heavier and more expensive than their sedan counterparts, so I can see it.
     
  7. zack

    zack Member

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    Based on $65K each for next year's Model S deliveries, $422M in gross sales for 2012, $1.3B in 2013.
     
  8. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    Currently funding is in place for Model S and for model X development in 2013. The next car planned is supposed to be based on the "third generation" platform, but that seems more than a little too aggressive for 2014. It seems more likely to me that Tesla will change their minds and build a convertible based on the model S platform in 2014 before making the third-generation platform.
     
  9. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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  10. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    #10 AnOutsider, Oct 31, 2011
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2011
    Thanks for that volker. On the earlier pages it lists the s and x on the platform, then lists "other derivative(s)". Meaning one ore more. The graph later on does show the arrows off the platform pointing to s, x and two empty slots, but I wonder if that's just because that's how the original graphic was (from the slideshow).

    Regardless, we can be fairly sure we'll get a convertible, but after that, there's the "van", which I don't see selling well unless to fleets, so maybe they may do that after blue star (or just not make a huge deal about it on the consumer side). I ant think of anything else to make from the s platform that would make sense. A wagon? S already has ample storage. A pickup truck? Meh, can't see that either.

    *edit* the PDF did clarify that Model X would begin deliveries Q4 2013, putting it 2 years after reveal, and just under a year and a half after the S starts deliveries
     
  11. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

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    Hey VolkerP,

    That was a nice bit of information.
     
  12. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Here is my take on this .... I like it but there are a few logical problems with it .... First. Model S Convertible. I do not know of any convertibles that are 4 dr. And I think that perhaps they might come up with something similar to the BMW M6 Convertible for this. As that size car is more in line with the Model S chassis and is a 2 dr. Second Isn't part of the defination of a Roadster a convertible ?!?! So the new Roadster on the 3rd gen platform would probably come out as a convertible maybe with a hardtop or t top option instead of 2 years later making it a convertible. And where is something closer to Bluestar in your prediction ?
     
  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Hoping by then they have a complete 2nd team working on the third gen Blustar (parallel, not series).
     
  14. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I'm thinking the rigid battery - skateboard arrangement is well suited for the extra strength needed to support a convertible. May not even add any weight unlike other cars need to.
     
  15. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    redirecting thanks to michiganmodels here for digging up that PDF.
     
  16. sjoshuaj

    sjoshuaj Member

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    While traditionally convertibles are 2 doors there has been a lot of interest as of late with building a 4 door variant. Audi, Mercedes, and Cadillac all have prototypes. And as someone else has already stated the main motivating factor for going with 2 doors, the need for structural rigidity, is no longer an issue with the Model S.

    Yeah, you may be right. Tesla may only offer the Roadster as a hard top convertible due to limited demand. However, I don't think it'll be a T top again. All the knowledge they'll gain by making a Model S Convertible will help them here.

    The blue star in my prediction was the "Model C".
     
  17. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    2 doors? Ok, as a way to save costs (=keep the promised base price of ~35k).
    4 doors then should be an option, like in VW Golf.
    Both variants should have a hatch back.
     
  18. sjoshuaj

    sjoshuaj Member

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    Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking. In order to make the ~35k price point they're going to have to dramatically reduce the size and weight of the car (2 doors and 4 seats). Which will in turn allow them to use far fewer and/or far cheaper batteries. Otherwise how else are you going to reduce the price of the car by 20,000 (35% reduction) below the Model S (4 doors and 5 seats) base price?

    And yes I definitely think it'll be a hatch back and in the same manner as the Model S.
     
  19. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    #19 neroden, Nov 7, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2011
    There's a definite need for a pickup. I'm not quite sure how well it would sell unless the price dropped, but there are some pretty pricey pickups on the market now.

    An electric pickup with a large range will definitely be a viable purchase for the sort of businesses which drive pickups: driving long distances, but not *that* long; driving every single day; back home every evening. So, high usage (favors electric over gas), but no really long trips (most businesses using pickups aren't serving customers over 150 miles away), and plenty of night time to charge. Pickups can't be made terribly aerodynamic. But they can be made fairly light. And this would probably be the single most stable pickup on the market, thanks to the center of gravity. Wouldn't get perfect crash-safety ratings (due to the cab being close to the front of the vehicle), but pickups generally don't.

    There are also an awful lot of people in semi-rural areas who don't really need pickups but drive 'em anyways. I think it would be a bigger seller than the van, though the van might be a decent fleet seller as you say. The pickup-van design differences would be really small anyway.

    OK, so Tesla hasn't proposed a pickup yet. But I think they could *control* the electric pickup market -- nobody else seems to have even considered producing one -- and it would be pretty easy to do it based on the Model S skateboard. So that's what I'm hoping (as a stockholder) they do after the X.

    Edit: call it the Model P. :)
     
  20. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    I might be coloring this with my own needs, but I can't see the market for an electric pickup. Probably wouldn't get great range hauling crap, and as you said, it won't be very aerodynamic. I picture pickups as pretty utilitarian. I may need one in the future for hauling crap to and from Lowes or around the property, but I'd likely get a cheap beater for the task.
     

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