With the significant rise of the stock price over the last six weeks, I’ve been thinking more and more about the long term plan of Tesla. I decided to write up where I think Tesla is going to be in the next 10 years, but really I’d be interested in reading other people’s predictions too. So here’s what I’m guessing:
I think in 10 years they’ll have two major very versatile platforms: the large platform (e.g. Model S) and the small platform (e.g. Gen III), with many different vehicles built on these two platforms.
I think in 10 years they’ll have a second factory.
Major vehicle release timeline:
2012: Large platform car (Model S)
2014: Large platform SUV (Model X)
2017: Small platform car (Gen III)
2018: Large platform truck
2022: Small platform SUV
2022: Large platform updated to version 2.0
I don’t have a timeline for this, but I’m sure over time they’ll also release many variants of each of the above vehicles:
Large platform car (Model S)
• Big battery / Small battery
• Performance / Non-performance
• Convertible / Sedan
• AWD / RWD
Large platform SUV (Model X)
• Big battery / Small battery
• Performance / Non-performance
• AWD / RWD
Large platform truck
• Big battery / Small battery
• Performance / Non-performance
Small platform car
• Big battery / Small battery
• Performance / Non-performance
• Convertible / Sedan
• AWD / RWD
Small platform SUV
• Big battery / Small battery
• Performance / Non-performance
• AWD / RWD
By around 2023, all of these variants will exist and will be coming out of two factories. That’s 10 years from now. At around that time, Tesla will still not be making as much money or cars as BMW, but because the market takes into account the future, Tesla will be valued at just higher than BMW. BMW currently has a market cap of 56 billion. If Tesla achieved a market cap of 60 billion (being just over BMW), that’s a stock price of $293. So I guess I shouldn't consider selling until TSLA hits $250.
What do you guys think? Am I being too aggressive with my predictions here? What are your predictions?