Predictions

[electracity]

I predict that Tesla's drive to be an industry leader, their focus on streamlining costs, and their confidence in their future scale will lead to "surprisingly affordable" prices—...........

The auto industry is a 100 years of brutal competition. The survivors are very efficient. Tesla is working to get to the Fiat level as a manufacturer.

Where Tesla can gain a competitive advantage is in cell and pack making at the gigafactory. This is a new type of manufacturing and there is a lot of efficiencies to be invented.

 

[McHoffa]

If TM charges per kWh, they'll have to be regulated by state and local governments as a utility, and therefore defeating the purpose.

They could charge for the time the car is plugged in charging, let's say $4/30 minutes of charging, which would equal roughly about 40 kWh @ $0.10/kWh at the rate a Model S charges for the first 80%. You'd end up paying more per kWh after that first 30 minutes, but that would be fine as usually you're not charging to 100% from empty anyway. I'd gladly pay $4 to top it off at each stop on a trip vs having them all hogged by leeches getting free power.

 

[Booga]

They could charge for the time the car is plugged in charging, let's say $4/30 minutes of charging, which would equal roughly about 40 kWh @ $0.10/kWh at the rate a Model S charges for the first 80%. You'd end up paying more per kWh after that first 30 minutes, but that would be fine as usually you're not charging to 100% from empty anyway. I'd gladly pay $4 to top it off at each stop on a trip vs having them all hogged by leeches getting free power.

That's not a bad idea. Free power, but you have to pay for the "parking space." It would get around the regulations.

 

[McHoffa]

That's not a bad idea. Free power, but you have to pay for the "parking space." It would get around the regulations.

and Elon likes to play the system

 

[JeffK]

They would need an entire workforce dedicated to implementing a billing system and having to maintain POS terminals at all the supercharging locations.... I just don't see this becoming a top priority for Tesla.

I mean if there was a zombie apocalypse, I'm going to be relying on a self sustaining solar powered Tesla Supercharger and I'd hope it's still free.

 

[N5329K]

Why couldn't the car wirelessly communicate with the charger, the handshake allows the charger to identify the car, its owner, it tracks usage and Tesla sends out a monthly electric bill? Wait too long to pay and your handshake gets disallowed.
Robin

 

[Booga]

They would need an entire workforce dedicated to implementing a billing system and having to maintain POS terminals at all the supercharging locations.... I just don't see this becoming a top priority for Tesla.

I mean if there was a zombie apocalypse, I'm going to be relying on a self sustaining solar powered Tesla Supercharger and I'd hope it's still free.

Has anyone done the math on just how much of a charge those solar panels can provide? If they're just on the roof above the charging areas, my guess is that they can't even produce enough power for 1 full charge every day.

 

[Booga]

Why couldn't the car wirelessly communicate with the charger, the handshake allows the charger to identify the car, its owner, it tracks usage and Tesla sends out a monthly electric bill? Wait too long to pay and your handshake gets disallowed.
Robin

Yeah - this would be entirely automated. As soon as you plug in the charger, it should have an RFID tag or something that allows it to identify the car and start the charging while billing your CC. It's no different than iTunes except that they might give you some credit so you just get billed once a month. Or you pre-purchase charging time in 10 hour increments.

 

[ummgood]

LOL. No way in hell you are getting the car with the options you listed at $42K.

Maybe EM knows that the M3 buyer is more budget conscious and won't option the cars as heavily as the Model S buyers who are typically much higher income.

Perhaps...

I think if Elon wants this to be more a mass marketable car than the Model S then he needs to get into a lower price range for options that people expect on a 45k car. For example if I buy a 45k car I expect to get leather, more than 2 paint choices, range at least somewhat close to a gas car, a sunroof, etc...

That is basically what I configured. The only thing that isn't really necessary is AWD but you need it on the Model S to get the upgraded battery.

I know it isn't popular opinion but you can get a Maxima with everything I listed above for less than 40k. I think if I have to spend 55 or 60k for the Model 3 with a sunroof, leather, silver paint, extended range, and auto pilot then I might decide it isn't time yet for me to go electric.

 

[Xminus6]

Has anyone done the math on just how much of a charge those solar panels can provide? If they're just on the roof above the charging areas, my guess is that they can't even produce enough power for 1 full charge every day.

I have 41 SunPower 335w panels on the roof of my house. They've only been active for a couple months but the best day just breaks past the 90kWh mark. So A full-to-empty charge takes nearly a whole Spring day with a pretty substantial amount of surface area.

 

[ummgood]

Boy, I hope you're right!

I am thinking that all of the options you list will cost you more like 60K. At least that is what I am planning on.

Dan

I hope I am right too. See my reply above for my take on it. Honestly if I have to spend 60k on those options and am not getting a 'P' version I might ask for my reservation money back. I can definitely afford the car but I am really cheap and this is my one car splurge. I was planning on a certified used or even new Audi S5 and at 60k for the Model 3 for a sunroof, leather, extended range, and silver paint I think the car is still in extreme luxury territory. At that price it isn't intended for upper middle class if you ask me.

 

[JeffK]

Has anyone done the math on just how much of a charge those solar panels can provide? If they're just on the roof above the charging areas, my guess is that they can't even produce enough power for 1 full charge every day.

True. They are solar complimented charging stations. I've heard they generate 24kW peak so through the course of a day you might be able to offset 2-3 charges assuming they aren't charging from 0%. Now if you have people only using it for long distance travel you might only get that many in a normal day... might even have days with zero people, extra gets stored or goes back to the grid.

 

[gregincal]

I hope I am right too. See my reply above for my take on it. Honestly if I have to spend 60k on those options and am not getting a 'P' version I might ask for my reservation money back. I can definitely afford the car but I am really cheap and this is my one car splurge. I was planning on a certified used or even new Audi S5 and at 60k for the Model 3 for a sunroof, leather, extended range, and silver paint I think the car is still in extreme luxury territory. At that price it isn't intended for upper middle class if you ask me.

Well, maybe not 60K but probably 50K. Extended range alone might bump it to 42K. As far as comparisons, if you go from a BMW 320 to a BMW 340 (a larger engine is the ICE equivalent of a larger battery) it moves you to a mid 40K starting price.

 

[ummgood]

Well, maybe not 60K but probably 50K. Extended range alone might bump it to 42K. As far as comparisons, if you go from a BMW 320 to a BMW 340 (a larger engine is the ICE equivalent of a larger battery) it moves you to a mid 40K starting price.

That makes sense and I probably wouldn't be that upset about that. Honestly I am hoping to be in at 60k or less and I want a PxxD with leather, sunroof, silver/midnight paint, and auto pilot. I'll see where I fall. I can definitely justify an extra 10k over a Maxima for a Tesla with the same features but much more would make me really question my sanity.

To keep it in perspective I am driving a 11 year old Toyota Tacoma. I have always been frugal with cars even though I could afford a nicely equipped BMW or Audi. I have trouble getting over the hurdle of the luxury car segment. This would be a real SPLURGE for me as far as my mentality goes. My wife has the nicer car because I like to pamper her a bit but her car is still a Odyssey Touring Elite. I choked a bit paying 41k for that car haha. Before the Tesla Model 3 was announced I was seriously considering the top optioned Maxima which is about the same price as my wife's van.

This car will probably be my last big splurge. I am 40 but I hope it will last me at least 10 years. Then my kids will be gone and I am hoping I can commute some other way to work and we can be a single car family. Perhaps sell our house in the burbs and live in a condo downtown.

 

[voip-ninja]

That makes sense and I probably wouldn't be that upset about that. Honestly I am hoping to be in at 60k or less and I want a PxxD with leather, sunroof, silver/midnight paint, and auto pilot. I'll see where I fall. I can definitely justify an extra 10k over a Maxima for a Tesla with the same features but much more would make me really question my sanity.

To keep it in perspective I am driving a 11 year old Toyota Tacoma. I have always been frugal with cars even though I could afford a nicely equipped BMW or Audi. I have trouble getting over the hurdle of the luxury car segment. This would be a real SPLURGE for me as far as my mentality goes. My wife has the nicer car because I like to pamper her a bit but her car is still a Odyssey Touring Elite. I choked a bit paying 41k for that car haha. Before the Tesla Model 3 was announced I was seriously considering the top optioned Maxima which is about the same price as my wife's van.

This car will probably be my last big splurge. I am 40 but I hope it will last me at least 10 years. Then my kids will be gone and I am hoping I can commute some other way to work and we can be a single car family. Perhaps sell our house in the burbs and live in a condo downtown.

My 340xi was $58,900 sticker and is missing about $4,000 in options still. The "ludicrous" speed version "M3" starts at $65,000 and goes to nearly $80K if you want all the bells and whistles (admittedly it has a race tuned suspension and chassis unlike anything Tesla has done on their sedans).

Tesla wants to compete in luxury space which means prices in line with Mercedes C class, Audi A4, BMW 3 series. Not Maxima.

In the lux space you always get irritated that cheaper cars from Toyota, GM, Hyundai are fully loaded at lux starting prices. We buy/lease them because they are far more enjoyable to drive and some see them as status symbols.

 

[ummgood]

Tesla wants to compete in luxury space which means prices in line with Mercedes C class, Audi A4, BMW 3 series. Not Maxima.

Thanks for the info I really do appreciate it. Honestly I get a different impression from Tesla. I don't think they really are trying to compete with anyone. I think they want to bring electric cars main stream. The initial desire was that they would prove the concept and a lot of the ICE manufacturers would also jump on board and use their patents to bring electric cars mainstream. We know that didn't happen.

I think the reason Tesla is currently competing in the Luxury space is the car (Model S) was a stepping point to get to the Model 3. They had to build a car at that cost level to make the Model 3 possible. Elon has said that over and over again and even mentioned it in the unveiling of the Model 3. Now he said the Model 3 would be similar to a 3 series or a Audi A4 but that doesn't mean he is trying to compete in the luxury space. I think if Elon can attract people who would be in the market for a loaded Maxima he'll try to get those folks in an Electric vehicle. Even then a Audi S5 Premium Plus with auto, leather, sunroof, black headliner, silver paint, is in the 51k range. I honestly think that is what the average person is going to want. They will want leather, sunroof, upgraded paint. That is where I am basing my 42k Elon average and options on.

 

[voip-ninja]

Thanks for the info I really do appreciate it. Honestly I get a different impression from Tesla. I don't think they really are trying to compete with anyone. I think they want to bring electric cars main stream. The initial desire was that they would prove the concept and a lot of the ICE manufacturers would also jump on board and use their patents to bring electric cars mainstream. We know that didn't happen.

I think the reason Tesla is currently competing in the Luxury space is the car (Model S) was a stepping point to get to the Model 3. They had to build a car at that cost level to make the Model 3 possible. Elon has said that over and over again and even mentioned it in the unveiling of the Model 3. Now he said the Model 3 would be similar to a 3 series or a Audi A4 but that doesn't mean he is trying to compete in the luxury space. I think if Elon can attract people who would be in the market for a loaded Maxima he'll try to get those folks in an Electric vehicle. Even then a Audi S5 Premium Plus with auto, leather, sunroof, black headliner, silver paint, is in the 51k range. I honestly think that is what the average person is going to want. They will want leather, sunroof, upgraded paint. That is where I am basing my 42k Elon average and options on.

An S5 with auto transmission, paint and Napa leather is $55,000. With technology package it is almost $59,000. S5 is also an odd comparison choice as it is a coupe. Better comparison is S4 and those usually go for upper 50's to get features must buyers want (that come standard on Japanese and domestic cars at 1/2 the price) such as parking AIDS, navigation, etc.

Elon has repeatedly used German luxury cars as the benchmark for tesla and I think there is little doubt that is who he is competing with.

Choice is a great thing. Someone with $40K to spend gets the choice of a pretty stripped model 3 or a fully loaded Bolt.

 

[ummgood]

Sorry I meant to type S4. Anyways without the nappa leather the A4 still comes with leather/alcantra. The M3 without leather will have cloth. Plus I just configured a base premium plus A4 and it starts at 49k. The paint option is 575. I don't think the cost of the auto should be included because that is a complicated expensive beast that isn't even compared on the M3.

 

[N5329K]

Play around with this:
Build Your Own
And you can see what the Model 3 is (or will be) up against. When I was done I was right at $39K.
Robin

 

[ummgood]

Play around with this:
Build Your Own
And you can see what the Model 3 is (or will be) up against. When I was done I was right at $39K.
Robin

It will be interesting to see who they compare closer to. BMW 340xi is pushing 51k for leather, paint, sunroof, tech package. The Audi A4 you can get a A4 Premium Plus with Leather, sunroof, full LED lights, Auto, AWD, B&O sound, paint for $47,500

All I was trying to do was take Elon's predictions of average price and then figure out what options an average consumer would want on their Model 3. I can't wait to find out! After all like the rest of us I am just taking a stab in the dark.