Predictions

[N5329K]

Worth looking back at some authoritative-sounding predictions, and comparing them to what's known today.
Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k
Robin

 

[Tiberius]

Is it?

 

[N5329K]

Only if you think some perspective on the many current predictions is useful, or interesting, which I do.
Robin

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I would guess that the average sale price of a Model 3 in the first year of deliveries is going to be north of $50,000...probably closer to 60K. In subsequent years I could see the average price coming down as more base models are ordered and delivered.

Dan

 

[ummgood]

Elon might be somewhat pessimistic but he said the average price is estimated to be 42k on the initial pre-orders. Frankly he and the team at Tesla are the only ones who know what the actual option pricing/availability will be. He also knows what the average person orders on a Model S and can probably extrapolate from that.

I agree that initially the first cars will be more because they'll be "Highly optioned cars" but I think the article from 2014 was a bit premature given some statements from Elon.

 

[MO Joule]

Worth looking back at some authoritative-sounding predictions, and comparing them to what's known today.
Anderman predicts Model 3 will cost between $50k-$80k, far above Tesla estimated $35k
Robin

Tesla didn't estimate $35K. That's the published base price. Elon has stated the average cost would likely be around $42K. I suspect very few base models (if any) will be sold in the first year, as they've said they'll produce more heavily optioned cars first.

 

[JeffK]

What do you think the average $42k cost Elon estimated included with regards to options to total $42k?

I'm guessing
base + AWD + pano roof + ?
35k + < 5k + 1.5k + ? = 42k
There's likely room for one more item, but I'm not sure what he thinks people will get on average.

 

[melindav]

What do you think the average $42k cost Elon estimated included with regards to options to total $42k?

I'm guessing
base + AWD + pano roof + ?
35k + < 5k + 1.5k + ? = 42k
There's likely room for one more item, but I'm not sure what he thinks people will get on average.

upgraded paint? really depends where SC and AP land too. if those are a line item, would expect most to add them on.

 

[JeffK]

I honestly think supercharging is going to be totally free. From everything I've ever read about their business model they have no plans to "charge" for supercharging anymore. (pun intended).

Supercharging is the thing that eases people's minds when transitioning from an ICE.

 

[malcolm]

Agreed. To some extent I think that Elon must be pretty pissed that other car makers haven't come forward to make use of Supercharger technology nor the Tesla patents.

All we've seen is a Tesla (ahem) "clone" from China, and far too many hybrid concepts posing as Model S killers for 2019 and beyond.

I shouldn't be surprised, but nevertheless it is disheartening to realise that kick-starting a revolution has to start with an awful lot of kicking.

 

[JeffK]

Especially in Europe. Tesla superchargers are currently the fastest chargers in the world and yet other manufacturers want to go with lower standards.

To gain more traction in China, Tesla partnered with the Chinese Gov't to support their new national standard at Tesla charging stations.

 

[ratsbew]

Superchargers will become a huge liability if they don't implement a pay-per-kWh model. I'm an advocate of the pay-per-kWh model because it will limit abuse of the network as well as funding its maintenance and expansion.

I'm perfectly okay paying for my electricity as long as it's around 10-15 cents per kWh.

 

[JeffK]

Superchargers will become a huge liability if they don't implement a pay-per-kWh model.

That's what some investors say but it doesn't seem to be the case.
What Does Providing Free Charging Cost Tesla Motors, Inc.? -- The Motley Fool

 

[wdolson]

What do you think the average $42k cost Elon estimated included with regards to options to total $42k?

I'm guessing
base + AWD + pano roof + ?
35k + < 5k + 1.5k + ? = 42k
There's likely room for one more item, but I'm not sure what he thinks people will get on average.

I would guess the two most common upgrades will be the AP, larger battery, and AWD. It's unknown if supercharging will be extra on the base models.

 

[ArtC]

Superchargers will become a huge liability if they don't implement a pay-per-kWh model. I'm an advocate of the pay-per-kWh model because it will limit abuse of the network as well as funding its maintenance and expansion.

I'm perfectly okay paying for my electricity as long as it's around 10-15 cents per kWh.

If TM charges per kWh, they'll have to be regulated by state and local governments as a utility, and therefore defeating the purpose.

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

I predict that the Model 3 will have:

a range >= 215 miles
a base price very close to $35,000.00
an average price > $35,000.00
AP hardware included
Supercharger hardware included
and of course, cowbell

 

[electracity]

If TM charges per kWh, they'll have to be regulated by state and local governments as a utility, and therefore defeating the purpose.

The little EV charging companies install pay chargers nationally. Certainly Tesla can have a per kWh fee for the Model 3.

I would rather pay Tesla $.20/kWh than have free charging included in the M3 base price. I don't want Tesla attracting M3 buyers looking for "free gas" and hogging superchargers. I do want Tesla to have continuous revenue to expand the supercharger network faster.

 

[JeffK]

I would rather pay Tesla $.20/kWh than have free charging included in the M3 base price..

That would be about the same price per charge as my Prius to fill up with gas and the Tesla will get less range. This wouldn't benefit me.

 

[electracity]

That would be about the same price per charge as my Prius to fill up with gas and the Tesla will get less range. This wouldn't benefit me.

Most people fill up their Tesla's at home.

 

[garsh]

The little EV charging companies install pay chargers nationally. Certainly Tesla can have a per kWh fee for the Model 3.

All of those other companies charge by the hour specifically to avoid being regulated as a power company.

Look, this is all nonsense. The supercharger network is a negligible ongoing cost for Tesla. If they were to start charging for its use, they would have to add all sorts of employees and software to track use, billing, and customer support issues. And it helps sell Tesla cars by being a huge differentiator compared to other 200+ mile range EVs - it means you can road-trip a Tesla, just like a normal car, and unlike every other EV available. There is no way that Tesla will want to ruin this huge selling advantage and increase their overhead costs by implementing billing for it.