Predictive driving

[israndy]

I notice as I drive that I do things behind the wheel based on my prediction of what is about to happen ahead.

I have not heard anything about this on the write-ups about Tesla's Auto Pilot. If the light turns green ahead and the Tesla can calculate it will be red if it keeps going the speed limit, will the Tesla speed up a bit to make the light?

If it drives the same road everyday will it get to know the timing of the lights? Will it be able to change lanes to get into the lane moving the fastest?

My fear is that it will instead only take opportunities to slow down. Oh, you are in the lane that is slowing down? OK, I'll slow down too. Oh, that guy ahead of you wants to change lanes and looks like he is moving in? OK, I'll slow down for him.

It will be nice to NOT have to think about the traffic, even if it will take a few extra minutes to get to the destination, it won't be my issue, it's up the Tesla, but it would be nice to have it at least TRY to drive successfully. I fear that pretty soon people will know that the Tesla is ALWAYS going to back down (Google cars have been stuck in intersections for a LONG time waiting for all the traffic to go away so it can move forward). If Tesla Auto Pilot follows in these footsteps it will not be as much fun as I am imagining when I finally get mine.

-Randy

 

[JeffK]

I have not heard anything about this on the write-ups about Tesla's Auto Pilot. If the light turns green ahead and the Tesla can calculate it will be red if it keeps going the speed limit, will the Tesla speed up a bit to make the light?

doubtful, that might be unsafe behavior. It's not going to be able getting to where you are going the fastest, it's going to be about getting you safely from point A to B.

If it drives the same road everyday will it get to know the timing of the lights? Will it be able to change lanes to get into the lane moving the fastest?

It'll go the speed limit as in the video. It'll respond to lights as it senses them, there's no need to remember light timing. Light timing can also fluctuate in the same location depending on the time of day or time of year.

My fear is that it will instead only take opportunities to slow down. Oh, you are in the lane that is slowing down? OK, I'll slow down too. Oh, that guy ahead of you wants to change lanes and looks like he is moving in? OK, I'll slow down for him.

It will be nice to NOT have to think about the traffic, even if it will take a few extra minutes to get to the destination, it won't be my issue, it's up the Tesla, but it would be nice to have it at least TRY to drive successfully. I fear that pretty soon people will know that the Tesla is ALWAYS going to back down (Google cars have been stuck in intersections for a LONG time waiting for all the traffic to go away so it can move forward). If Tesla Auto Pilot follows in these footsteps it will not be as much fun as I am imagining when I finally get mine.

In reality, it'll probably drive like a conservative church lady (one who is maybe a little tipsy for the first few months). Google had been working on making the cars more human like in their 4 way stop behavior, I'd assume Tesla will do the same.

Think of it this way though... if I drive aggressively in an older car that I don't care about then the other driver will ALWAYS back down. Well ok, unless they have an older crappier car... point is, even a human driver might always back down if they care about the wellbeing of their shiny expensive car. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you get where you're going.

... and also you don't get shot. Road rage related shootings are on the rise where I am.

 

[WannabeOwner]

If the traffic flows more smoothly, has fewer fender-benders, avoids / re-routes around temporary blockages / roadworks, then you will, on average, get to your destination sooner - unless traffic volume increases.

Maybe you will be able to pay a tax / premium for getting their sooner. Once all journeys are "known" it seems to me that more effort could be made to reduce traffic - incentivise traffic to travel at less busy times, penalise traffic travelling at busy times, or charge a premium to allow some traffic to have priority. Self driving trucks could run (for example) only at night, thereby dramatically improving day-time flow (and being charged a cheaper road-usage fee somehow)

Every time I see road works which is laid out for 10's of miles, rather than doing it piecemeal and in stages, and times of day when there are zero, or few, workers working I ponder what the loss to the country's GDP is of having commercial vehicles stuck in that traffic. Getting everyone to their destination sooner is good for both GDP and individual satisfaction. That might not include software that deliberately jumps the lights though! but, that said, if Big Brother knows all the journeys, and thus that there is more traffic going from A-to-B just now - perhaps the Game is on - then the Lights could adjust to allow more flow in that direction.

 

[rw86347]

When I moved to China I found that for a year I would walk into people on the sidewalk. It was frustrating as hell. After about a year I realized that I was not using the same subliminal messages as everyone else does. American's use eye contact to communicate which way they plan to step, the Chinese seemed to use some sort of unacknowledged slide past.

Now think about how many times you have felt like someone was going to cut you off. I *think* we have these small perceptions that are almost subconscious. And It will take some time to teach computers about the wacky things humans do right before they do something wrong.

 

[ecarfan]

When I moved to China I found that for a year I would walk into people on the sidewalk. It was frustrating as hell. After about a year I realized that I was not using the same subliminal messages as everyone else does. American's use eye contact to communicate which way they plan to step, the Chinese seemed to use some sort of unacknowledged slide past.

I had exactly the same experience when I moved to Singapore and lived there for almost 4 years in the 90's.

As to a car being able to do "predictive driving": not in this decade.

 

[Chopr147]

Predictive driving is a weak spot for AP. One example: Car in front slows down and starts to make a right turn. A human would move over a little and continue on w/o slowing too much. AP hits the brakes hard and stays centered in the lane and almost makes a complete stop. Then moves again when that car is fully turned and out of the way. This worries me in regards to getting rear-ended because the traffic flow can be interrupted. I keep an eye on the rear view mirror in these situations just in case

 

[JeffK]

Predictive driving is a weak spot for AP. One example: Car in front slows down and starts to make a right turn. A human would move over a little and continue on w/o slowing too much. AP hits the brakes hard and stays centered in the lane and almost makes a complete stop. Then moves again when that car is fully turned and out of the way. This worries me in regards to getting rear-ended because the traffic flow can be interrupted. I keep an eye on the rear view mirror in these situations just in case

One could argue that if you have to do this then you may have been following too closely

 

[animorph]

The EAP description says it will "automatically change lanes without requiring driver input". I assume that means it will switch lanes if its current lane is slower than surrounding traffic.

FSD should be able to be trained for some predictive driving. It would be easy to train it to slow down a little or change lanes to avoid a car that is signaling a right turn and starting to slow. All the needed inputs are there.