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Price drop and/or range upgrade with gigafactory?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by McHoffa, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. McHoffa

    McHoffa Active Member

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    Canton, NC
    I was doing math on the Model 3 battery costs vs the S /X current pricing and it got me wondering what will happen when the cell cost drops from the current ~$150/kWh to ~$100/kWh that they're hoping to achieve with the gigafactory. The cost for the 85 battery pack will decrease from $12,750 for the cells to $8500, putting it $2000 below where the 70 is at currently.

    To differentiate the S from the 3, do you think we'll see a price drop on the 85 and get rid of the 70 option (and maybe add a 120kWh)? Or, do you think they'll just add more options and features that only the S will get? I think they're going to do something big to justify people buying a car that starts at twice the price the Model 3. Maybe they'll drop the base S down to $60-65k?
     
  2. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Being that they're production constrained and not demand, my bet is prices per kWh will remain but larger packs will be offered. I think they need all the cash they can get to fund Model 3, R&D, and expansion. This is unless competition comes to market with a comparable car but that doesn't look to be the case for 2-3 years. Even then, the Porsche Mission E, which I think will be the closest comparable competitor to the Model S, is already behind today. 2-3 more years and Tesla will have a sizable gap. Hopefully.
     
  3. McHoffa

    McHoffa Active Member

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    I don't think any competition will catch up for quite some time. They waited too long.

    But what about in comparison to their own car, the Model 3. If the Model 3 has a 60kWh battery (maybe upgradeable to 85 or 90) and even fully loaded comes out less than a 70, will anyone still buy the 70? The X has its own niche carved for now, and people expect to pay more for a CUV/SUV, but not double or more just for a larger sedan. Either the 3 will have to be very simplified (which makes it too close to Chevy's offering) or the S will need SOMETHING to make people keep hitting that buy button. The extra space is great and I'm looking at the 85D possibly later this year, but if I can get P85D power in a $70k fully loaded M3, I'll wait another year for the M3.
     

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