Price drops?

[s1m0nc]

Hello.

Given the recent announcements about the Roadster and Semi, which suggests some significant capacity and performance improvements with Tesla's batteries, is there any expectation of price drops on the Model S in the next 12-18 months perhaps, due to similar manufacturing cost savings? e.g.
Tesla’s Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries

Considering purchasing a Model S, and I currently lease a vehicle, so just worried I'll be hit by such a drop. Could see Tesla perhaps doing that to compete with the I-PACE launching at 60k price point for SUV format, and others joining the market.

I'm sure there's nothing concrete, so just wondering what the forum's thoughts are...?

Cheers

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I don't there will be any global price drop any time soon but they are always discounting inventory models to clear then out.

Currently in GB, you can find over 160 inventory and CPO cars listed here: Tesla Inventory Search

The inventory cars are eligible for free supercharging and you can sign up for free email alerts for price drops, new inventory, etc. Currently they have some cars listed with discounts of over £46,000 and over 50 inventory vehicles with discounts over £19,000.

 

[JonG]

I don't there will be any global price drop any time soon but they are always discounting inventory models to clear then out.

Currently in GB, you can find over 160 inventory and CPO cars listed here: Tesla Inventory Search

The inventory cars are eligible for free supercharging and you can sign up for free email alerts for price drops, new inventory, etc. Currently they have some cars listed with discounts of over £46,000 and over 50 inventory vehicles with discounts over £19,000.

Or go on the uk site Tesla MS and MX cars for sale in the UK that has over 350 cars.

Discounts are also largely a con. Tesla have changed the pricing structure, bundled subzero and hifi into prem pack and reduced top line prices. The stated discounts are against the list price at the time of manufacturing and not at today’s prices. Some new inventory are also used cars. And cars like MX have had improvements made which are missing.

 

[JonG]

Simon, (wild guess based on your profile name), you can never predict the future but I doubt we’ll see significant price changes. The battery tech that’s being predicted is still some way off. The cars would need changes to accommodate the new battery cell size, and even then it’s not necessarily cheaper. The safe way is to buy new inventory with a guaranteed buy back figure if you’re worried, or you can but used like any other car. Some options make resale hard, tan is unloved in the uk, premium pack, and either air or hifi or subzero seem to be needed. My first car is still at the dealer after 6 months because it was a base 90D with leather. I’m sure with prem pack it would have sold, the secret is to spec wisely or buy cheaply. Loads of 75s around with basic spec, it needs to be the cheapest to be worthwhile buying. On the other hand, finding a P90DL facelift is hard as they sell relatively quickly plus they’ve 99% of a P100D performance for 25k less, albeit AP1.

 

[Derek Kessler]

I expect there will be modest price drops in the next few years as the Gigafactory fully comes online and economies of scale kick in and decrease the cost of battery cell production. But that will take some time, and a redesign of the S and X to accommodate the new packs.

Tesla's competing with for lower-priced vehicles by making their own: instead of lowering the price of the Model S, they eliminated the cheapest versions and rolled out the even cheaper Model 3. Same will happen with the X and Y. I doubt Tesla has any desire to have a sprawling lineup like most manufacturers.

 

[J1mbo]

If buying from the factory, the best you can hope for is a strong £ and weak $.

For example, the result of the non-binding brexsh!t advisory referendum caused a ~20% drop in GBP vs USD, and factory build prices rose accordingly.

 

[thegruf]

imo expect the Model S prices to remain roughly where they are, albeit exchange rate dependent.

The point is that Tesla, like all manufacturers has to retain a range of price points.
So very much like BMW for example, a 5 Series will always be in a price range dependent on configuration, an M5 will always cost a similar amount and an M3 will always cost more than a base 5 Series, so that the ranges overlap.

What will change with time is the features/options offered at said price points. As for that future, mostly inrcremental changes are Tesla's style not major model revisions eg on an annual basis.

As for New inventory etc - well just the same as any manufacturer with pre-registered/demo vehicles, of course you can get a better deal, but in the main Tesla are quitre formulaic about these too, and usually there is little room fornegotiation. One piece of advice with such vehicles though is always check the actual vehicle first prior to parting with money.

Should the competition ever manage to force Tesla's hand with pricing by eventually releasing competitive vehicles, expect Tesla to respond by upping the features and quality to match the competition not by dropping their prices.

As ever though bear in mind the Tesa are a public company and have to report quarterly. If there are discounts to be had EOQ is your best bet to bag a bargain.

 

[WannabeOwner]

~20% drop in GBP vs USD

To get to even 18% you would have to cherry pick the one-day peak of 22-Jun-2016 against the lowest point in October 2016, but for the rest of that period the differential was nothing like that big and Sterling has recovered to 7% down. The Hi/Lo within any given year in the last 5 years has been ~10%, so the currency risk exists whenever buying from abroad.

Tesla price rises are known in advance, so you can lock in the current price if you want to. Tesla honoured my order price, even though I forward-ordered 6-months and there were two price increases in that time, and they also included the various upgrades that had occurred in that interval.

The point is that Tesla, like all manufacturers has to retain a range of price points.

Absolutely agree. I too think that price will be as-is, give or take, but package-value will increase over time - bigger battery etc. Perhaps even some quality coach-building?

If there are discounts to be had EOQ is your best bet to bag a bargain.

Another thought, for someone who is not time-dependent, or is market-shy, is perhaps to buy immediately after an upgrade launch/announcement - i.e. locking in best second hand value (for the age of the product when you sell)

 

[s1m0nc]

Thanks to all for taking the time to post thoughts and comments. Will wade through it all...