-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Pricing of options, I hope the Model 3 is reasonable.
- Thread starter timk225
- Start date
Can you show your work on that?
(You can start with my option list in this post.)A fully loaded P90DL costs roughly 206% of a stripped 70.
Given the lower starting price for the Model 3 I expect that options can easily cost more than the base car.
Just a guess:
Base $ 35,000.00
Paint $ 750.00
Larger battery $ 5,000.00
Supercharging $ (included with larger battery)
AWD Incl in Performance
Wheels $ 2,000.00
Auto-Pilot $ 1,500.00
Leather Seats $ 2,000.00
Premium Interior $ 2,500.00
Panoramic Roof Already All Glass Roof
Fancy trim (Carbon fiber) Incl with Premium Interior
HiFi $ 1,500.00
Sub-Zero $ 1,000.00
Peformance $ 7,500.00
Ludicrous $ 7,500.00
High amp charger No Option
Towing option $ 750.00
Smart Air Suspension $ 2,000.00
Carbon Fiber Spoiler $ 1,000.00
That puts you at $70,000... I can hope your guess is closer to reality than mine.
I think you guys are nuts if you think the larger battery is going to cost less than $7,500. (It costs $13,000 for the Model S to go from a 70 to a 90.) So maybe it will only cost $6,500...
Roof will have three options: metal, fixed glass, and opening panoramic... So the opening panoramic roof is going to cost more.
Big-T
Member
That's what scares me the most, I don't realy want the extra battery - it's likely the most expensive upgrade (short of performance) you can get, but I hear on the X and S getting the larger battery is what moved people to the front of production. If I have to get it to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit I will - but that'll eat up the entire credit!
So you will opt for the larger battery just to get the tax credit, that gets spent on the battery just to get it sooner? (I assume you could opt for the smaller battery and still get 50%, or at least 25%, of the tax credit towards the configuration you actually want just a number of months later.)
They might do the Model 3 differently; who knows if they are battery cell constrained they might choose to ship the smaller battery, but highly optioned, cars first so that they can ship more of them while the Gigafactory gets up to full speed.
I, also, doubt we will have enough details to know for 100% sure how to configure a car to get the full tax credit. (But we can hope that the limit is increased, or removed, before then so it becomes a non-issue.)
I don't think the tax credit will play much of a role for many Model 3 buyers.
Just the opposite, I suspect a lot of the reservation holders are counting on it.
My point being in two years the 200,000 will be allocated and the credit will be diminishing.
Most people don't understand the credit anyway. So as they find out they either don't qualify for it or it is severely reduced, then a large number will cancel.
I see you are saying it won't matter to many of the people buying a Model 3, where as I am saying it will be a huge issue for most people that have already reserved a Model 3. (Many of which will probably not actually turn into a buyer because of the tax credit, or lack of it.)
MrBoylan
Member
I like your prices better than mine.
I too think that SC access will be included in the larger battery, but if the battery upgrade is a 20kWh difference (e.g., 60 to 80) then I think they may have to charge more than $5K for that, even with cheaper Gigafactory batteries. As the other Mike points out, going from 70 to 90 today is a $13K upgrade on the Model S or X. I was thinking that on the 3 it would be in the $7500-$10000 range. If it's only a 15 kWH difference, then it may be cheaper.But the only thing I really think they will keep consistent across the line is AutoPilot. That's probably going to be exactly the same feature on the 3 as on the S or the X so I think they may charge the same amount for it on any car. Of course, in 2 years, we don't know exactly what that feature will be.
"Tessie, I'm almost finished at work. Can you come and pick me up?"
"Yes, master"
Canuck
Well-Known Member
I think options is where Tesla is looking to make a lot of their money on the Model 3. The lists provided here may end up being pretty accurate. I also bet that the first cars that roll off the line will be for people who fully load them, which is probably part of the reason why they have given Model S/X owners priority since we're much more likely to fully load ours than the general public, and I predict we will be followed by reservation holders who fully load and, once those are done, then the basic cars will be delivered. I can already see the long threads complaining about that but it only makes financial sense to do it that way, and if history is any example by looking what they did with the X, we shouldn't be surprised at all if that's what they do with the Model 3.
I don't know how $6000-$7500 for the larger battery can be justified. It's not like you're buying the stock battery and getting ANOTHER bigger battery with it. You are just getting a battery that is 30% or so larger.
Same metal case, mostly the same wiring inside, it just has a few extra packs of cells in there. Getting the larger battery should not cost more than $2500, tops.
I want a base Model 3 with the big battery. That's all. No glass roof. No fancy paint or radio, no dual motors.
Same metal case, mostly the same wiring inside, it just has a few extra packs of cells in there. Getting the larger battery should not cost more than $2500, tops.
I want a base Model 3 with the big battery. That's all. No glass roof. No fancy paint or radio, no dual motors.
MrBoylan
Member
What are you basing this $2,500 figure on? Tesla currently charges $13,000 for a 20 kWH battery upgrade on the S and the X today (upgrading from a 70 to a 90). Do you really think they can chop $10,500 off that price in less than 2 years?
It really depends how low they can get the cell/pack costs down before they begin manufacturing the Model 3 and how much profit they need in the upgraded battery option in order to make up for the low margin base model.
AFAIK, Tesla doesn't reveal their cell or pack costs, but the estimates I've seen are that they're currently at somewhere between $200 and $250/kWh in current production. Someone please let me know if this is wrong as I only did some quick research on that. If that's right, then a 60 kWh battery costs Tesla $12,000 to $15,000 to manufacture and an 80 kWh pack would be $16,000 to $20,000. These numbers aren't much of a stretch considering the "list" price of an 85 kWh Model S battery in Tesla's parts list was $44,564 just two and a half years ago (see David Nolan's battery upgrade story for details on that).
So a 20 kWh upgrade (at $200-$250/kWh pack prices) would cost Tesla $4,000 to $5,000. That's base cost. If Tesla were charging 50% mark-up on popular options (again, to compensate for a very low margin base model), then we'd be looking at $6,000 to $8,000 upgrade fee for a battery that is 20 kWh larger than the base model.
If the pack costs are substantially lower than $200/kWh by late 2017, then it's possible they could shave that down a bit, but I don't think $2,500 for 20 kWh more battery is feasible in less than two years. The gigafactory will make packs cheaper, but not right away. The first deliveries are currently supposed to happen well before the Gigafactory ramps up to full scale production (which is expected to happen in 2020). And even when the gigafactory is fully operational (why can't I say that phrase without hearing Grand Moff Tarkin talking about the Death Star?), the most optimistic estimates I've seen are in the $130/kWh range for an assembled pack ($88/kWh for the raw cells).
Can someone check/dispute my math?
Have you priced out buying ~80kWh of batteries to base your costs?
And if the Model 3 is like the Model S when you upgrade to the larger battery you are forced to get AWD as well. (Which extends the range a little as well.)
Okay, I'll math it out......
A 60 KW base battery, which I am getting with the $35,000 price, costs $12,000 if we presume $200 per KW.
A larger 80 KW battery at $200 per KW is $16,000.
The difference is $4000. So my $35K car becomes $39K. Keep in mind there's already some profit margin in there from the original smaller battery pack.
I don't mind letting Tesla have a reasonable profit, but nearly doubling it? I don't know about that.
I guess it is pointless to debate these things until we know actual pack sizes and option prices.
A 60 KW base battery, which I am getting with the $35,000 price, costs $12,000 if we presume $200 per KW.
A larger 80 KW battery at $200 per KW is $16,000.
The difference is $4000. So my $35K car becomes $39K. Keep in mind there's already some profit margin in there from the original smaller battery pack.
I don't mind letting Tesla have a reasonable profit, but nearly doubling it? I don't know about that.
I guess it is pointless to debate these things until we know actual pack sizes and option prices.
davidc18
Active Member
Please be careful about what is pack-price and what is cell price. A few years ago the reported cell price into Tesla was at $180/kWh. Your estimated pack price seems to be about right with this cell price. But when we talk about the price of 20kWh more/less in the same pack, only the cell price is relevant.
What the cell price into Tesla is now is unknown, but I think it is safe to say well under $100/kWh when the GF-I is in full production in 2020. When GM reviled that their cell price was $145/kWh last year Elon's response was that Tesla still had a better price (if he meant "by then" or "by the time the Bolt is released" is not known). My opinion is that the cell price into Tesla would be in the range of $100-$120/kWh. This will give a 20kWh upgrade a cost to Tesla of about $2000 - $2400 in 2017/18, and the rest is pure profit if no other options is included (like supercharger access...).
While I do agree that $2500 is to low, I think $4-5000 is a reasonable price for this upgrade.
At that time one battery-pack sold was one less car produced and sold. So I think they added most of the profit they would get from selling a car into this "list-price".
MrBoylan
Member
If the 60 kWh pack is identical to the 80 kWh pack except with some cells missing (like with dummy placeholder cells in there) then that would be true, but I'm not sure it's that simple. But I admit I don't know much about how a Tesla battery pack is made to be able to speak with any authority on this distinction.
Are the battery pack's thermal management system (radiators, fans, heat exchangers, glycol tubing, etc.) and charge management system of the Model S 70 kWh identical to that on the 90 kWh model? I would think that they'd have different specs (and potentially different components) to accommodate for different operating temperatures of the different sized packs.
But again, a little out of my depth here...
Similar threads
- Question
