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Pricing of options, I hope the Model 3 is reasonable.

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Are the battery pack's thermal management system (radiators, fans, heat exchangers, glycol tubing, etc.) and charge management system of the Model S 70 kWh identical to that on the 90 kWh model? I would think that they'd have different specs (and potentially different components) to accommodate for different operating temperatures of the different sized packs

I don't think it would make any sense to do that. The cost of having multiple different parts would outweigh the savings from any of them being smaller. (And then would make an upgrade years later a non-starter.)

The cooling system has both passive and active modes. So it might be able to stay passive more on a 70 than on a 90.
 
It would appear that the first 50,000 *or so* M3 buyers will get the full federal tax credit.

Rationale as follows:

US-centric production estimates - ~40K so far, another ~50K this year and ~75K next gets us to 165K before the first M3 is produced in late December 2017.

Then there's the wiggle room provided by the verbiage of the provision itself. The 'or so' above could mean 75,000 M3 buyers get the full credit depending upon how Elon wants to reward current MS/X owners. And then it's a matter of cranking out as many as possible in the 2 quarters subsequent to the full quarter after the quarter in which the threshold is reached (got all that? :) Who comes up with this stuff - ah - committees - naturally) - all of whose buyers will get half the federal tax credit. I forget what happens thereafter.

So net net, I believe that everybody who signed up from the US within the first 24 hours is going to get something - and even during the day after. After that, well, all bets are off :).

And that, folks, is why I drove from LA County to Palm Desert to sign up, and was done at 10:07am. California owner or not, I just wanted to remove all doubt - besides which, my GRV (guaranteed resale value) option triggers in early 2018 - figuring after the employees get the first 1000 cars or so, that timing should work well. If I do keep the car that long, which is by no means certain given the anemic nature of the ESA for 50,001-100,000 miles (am at 40,000 miles after 15 months now), it would make sense to transition at that point. Selling privately is of course the best option, but having the GRV as a floor can't hurt.

Now watch Elon surprise everyone and deliver the car mid-2017. Ack!
 
It would appear that the first 50,000 *or so* M3 buyers will get the full federal tax credit.
Shown below is a production estimate, from a publication this morning, for YE2016 which shows 187,000 to 197,000 total Tesla vehicles by year end. That leaves just 13,000 going into 2017. Tesla is selling around 14,000 Model S per quarter, so the 200,000 would be reached by Q1 17, nine months before the thought of any M3s being delivered.

productionchart.jpg
 
Shown below is a production estimate, from a publication this morning, for YE2016 which shows 187,000 to 197,000 total Tesla vehicles by year end. That leaves just 13,000 going into 2017. Tesla is selling around 14,000 Model S per quarter, so the 200,000 would be reached by Q1 17, nine months before the thought of any M3s being delivered.

That's great info. However, only US production counts against the cap, after which there is still a time buffer.
 
Is there any further speculation on the biggest battery being offered? 80 or 90 kWh? I'm really hoping for at least a 300-mile range with a battery upgrade cost of no more than $5k.

I suspect that will be very unlikely. If the battery upgrade is only 50% of what the upgrade cost for the Model S it would be $7,500. And then on the Model S the AWD option is required when getting the larger battery, which for the Model 3 might add another $4k.

So a safe guess might be that the "long range" option package costs $10,000 to add both the larger battery and AWD. (Since AWD increases your range as well.)
 
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Is that global sales or US sales? ^

The chart reflects global sales.

The US federal tax credit is concerned only with units produced for the US market. In round numbers, between 40%-60% of total production in other words.

It won't take much, relatively speaking, in the most likely of scenarios, for Tesla to secure an additional 1-2 quarter s of full tax credit-eligible units before the clock starts toward half-credits and ultimately to a complete phaseout.

Places such as Colorado ($6,000) and the San Joaquin Valley (CA, with $5,500 available) will look pretty good once that tax credit goes away.

Meanwhile, it stands to reason that more people will order fully-loaded cars as long as any tax credit or rebate is around.

Whatever it takes to get more people to click or tap "Commit" is a Good Thing.

Rough since range difference between AWD and RWD is not that significant (and I don't live in a snowy region). What is the purpose of the dual motor (D) option? High performance?

Better handling in general. "On rails" is the phrase I most often hear from D owners. Are not required to carry chains, either, at least in most places if not all.
 
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Rough since range difference between AWD and RWD is not that significant (and I don't live in a snowy region). What is the purpose of the dual motor (D) option? High performance?

Better handling, higher performance, longer range, more even tire wear/less tire rotations required (regen both front and back), and some redundancy (with certain failures you could still drive with one motor failed).

I know only ~4%, or 10 miles more on the base Model S 70. But hey 10 miles could be the difference between making it and not making it.
 
If the 60 kWh pack is identical to the 80 kWh pack except with some cells missing (like with dummy placeholder cells in there) then that would be true, but I'm not sure it's that simple. But I admit I don't know much about how a Tesla battery pack is made to be able to speak with any authority on this distinction.

I can't clam to know for sure, but I think I remember reading here on TMC that this is exactly what they did to the TMS60 battery pack - putting in dummy placeholder cells. So I think it is reasonable to expect something like that on the TM3 also. And what ever they do, the pricing of a 60kWh pack and a 80kWh pack - excluding the cells - should be about the same if not exact the same.

Are the battery pack's thermal management system (radiators, fans, heat exchangers, glycol tubing, etc.) and charge management system of the Model S 70 kWh identical to that on the 90 kWh model? I would think that they'd have different specs (and potentially different components) to accommodate for different operating temperatures of the different sized packs.

But again, a little out of my depth here...

I do not have any inside information, but there was a report on someone (you even linked to it in you previously post) replacing the 60kWh battery with a 85kWh pack on a Model S. I can't remember that there was any talk about any change to the thermal management system or anything on the car, just replace the battery and a software update to get the 85 performance. But the report could be uncomplet?
 
Can anyone help me compare AWD from RWD? I own a 4wd truck for offload traction purposes, and can't see taking a tesla on such roads. So - what is the advantage? It costs trunk space and two motors costs more than one - but to what advantage? Gotta be some.
 
Can anyone help me compare AWD from RWD? I own a 4wd truck for offload traction purposes, and can't see taking a tesla on such roads. So - what is the advantage? It costs trunk space and two motors costs more than one - but to what advantage? Gotta be some.
AWD in both EVs and ICE vehicles is not the same as 4x4. AWD in modern luxury and performance vehicles is used to more evenly distribute the power to the wheels that are needed and improve traction during acceleration. It can help in rain or snow. No additional space is taken up in the Tesla vehicles for the second motor, as they have now designed the vehicles with that allocated area with or without the motor.

Finally, in the Tesla BEV, the dual motors give you slightly better range as the power is distributed to each individual wheel as needed, thus a slightly smaller amount of energy is needed.

Hope that helps.
 
Can anyone help me compare AWD from RWD? I own a 4wd truck for offload traction purposes, and can't see taking a tesla on such roads. So - what is the advantage? It costs trunk space and two motors costs more than one - but to what advantage? Gotta be some.

I posted this just a few posts up, but here it is again:
Better handling, higher performance, longer range, more even tire wear/fewer tire rotations required (regen both front and back), and some redundancy (with certain failures you could still drive with one motor failed).
 
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AWD in both EVs and ICE vehicles is not the same as 4x4. AWD in modern luxury and performance vehicles is used to more evenly distribute the power to the wheels that are needed and improve traction during acceleration. It can help in rain or snow. No additional space is taken up in the Tesla vehicles for the second motor, as they have now designed the vehicles with that allocated area with or without the motor.

Finally, in the Tesla BEV, the dual motors give you slightly better range as the power is distributed to each individual wheel as needed, thus a slightly smaller amount of energy is needed.

Hope that helps.
You sound like a well informed (insider?) to know how the trunk is used. You just helped me choose AWD over RWD in my option ordering. Thanks for the help.
 
I posted this just a few posts up, but here it is again:
Better handling, higher performance, longer range, more even tire wear/less tire rotations required (regen both front and back), and some redundancy (with certain failures you could still drive with one motor failed).
Yes you did. I failed to read the entire sequence of posts before my question. Thanks for being kind in your response.
 
Shown below is a production estimate, from a publication this morning, for YE2016 which shows 187,000 to 197,000 total Tesla vehicles by year end. That leaves just 13,000 going into 2017. Tesla is selling around 14,000 Model S per quarter, so the 200,000 would be reached by Q1 17, nine months before the thought of any M3s being delivered.

View attachment 171074
As others have pointed out, those are global numbers (and estimates), when it's only US sales that matter as far as the US tax credit is concerned. I believe the actual delivered number of Teslas in the US as of March 31st is somewhere between 60K and 70K cars - there are probably web sites out there with closer estimates. Most estimates based on current projections put the 200K-in-the-US dates somewhere in Q2 or Q3 of 2018, by which time Model 3 production should be pretty brisk (if all goes well). And again, depending on the exact day car #200K is delivered in the US, we'll have anywhere from 3 months and a day to 6 full months where all the Teslas delivered in that time period still qualify for the full $7,500 (the full quarter when the 200K deliver occurs plus the full quarter following that). So that should take us into 2019. Then for the next two quarters the credit is $3,750, the next two quarters $1875. So anyone who takes delivery of a Tesla in 2019 is *likely* to qualify for at least a partial Federal tax credit.

But I'm sure many of the people who are counting on the tax credit (or at least hoping for it), don't realize how it works. If you don't have an income tax liability of at least $7500 in the year you purchase the car, you won't get the full amount. By "tax liability" I mean the Federal income tax you would have paid that year, after all deductions. There are estimates floating around, but I believe single individuals who make about $70K/year or above (with standard deductions) should be able to get the full credit or close to it.

But again, that really varies depending on your specific deductions. I'd say the best way to see if you qualify is look at your 1040 or 1040EZ form for 2015 and see if you paid at least $7500 in Federal Income tax. If you did and you expect your income and other deductions in 2018 or 2019 to be similar, then you should qualify for the full amount (assuming the credit is still available for Teslas at the time of delivery).

There are still a lot of unknowns, but it's certainly possible that over 300,000 or even over 400,000 Teslas (many of them Model 3s) could qualify for at least a partial credit. It really depends on continued demand for the Model S and X and how quickly Tesla can ramp up production of the Model 3.
 
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It'll be interesting also to see what happens with S/X sales as the tax credit phase-out begins. I'm guessing for some buyers, they'll start ordering an S or X in order to take advantage of the credit, considering the waitlist on the 3. Granted, there are other economic decisions to be made with the vehicle - the S still has to represent a significant upside to the 3 for anyone to want to do this. But I think it's a piece of the credit puzzle that a lot of people are forgetting about.
 
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