Pricing of options, I hope the Model 3 is reasonable.

[MrBoylan]

It'll be interesting also to see what happens with S/X sales as the tax credit phase-out begins. I'm guessing for some buyers, they'll start ordering an S or X in order to take advantage of the credit, considering the waitlist on the 3. Granted, there are other economic decisions to be made with the vehicle - the S still has to represent a significant upside to the 3 for anyone to want to do this. But I think it's a piece of the credit puzzle that a lot of people are forgetting about.

The "I want one now" factor may offset the Osborne effect: people not buying the S or X because the 3 is right around the corner. Though Osborne effect may be the wrong term. The Model 3 isn't "better;" it's just smaller and less expensive.

 

[ttupper92618]

In regards to battery costs, it really should be noted that the timing of Model 3 launch is concomitant with the timing for Gigafactory 1 to be well into production. The speculation is that Gigafactory will reduce battery costs by at least 50%. Therefore, all of the guestimations here based upon current battery pricing and cost are rather moot.

 

[weak_pig]

D

In regards to battery costs, it really should be noted that the timing of Model 3 launch is concomitant with the timing for Gigafactory 1 to be well into production. The speculation is that Gigafactory will reduce battery costs by at least 50%. Therefore, all of the guestimations here based upon current battery pricing and cost are rather moot.

Does this mean if there are unexpected delays with the opening of gigafactory, it would greatly delay of model 3 production?

 

[Model 3]

The speculation is that Gigafactory will reduce battery costs by at least 50%.

What Tesla has said is that the Gigafactory will reduce battery cost by at least 30%. Hopefully up to 50% at full production in 2020. As for my own posts in this thread this is taking into account.

... But then, 30-50% reduction from what? From what the cell price was when they started planing for the GF-I? (And that is the only price we do sort-of know ("have a reason to believe") anything about - $180/kWh.) Or from what it would be in 2017 without the GF-I? Or from what it would be in 2020 without the GF-I? From what they will pay Panasonic for the cells that is not produced at the GF-I? Or is it the pack-price not cell-price?

It is just to may variables here to be sure of anything... But the numbers I have presented here is what I consider to be sober and probable assumptions based on what we know and what is suggested from Tesla.

Does this mean if there are unexpected delays with the opening of gigafactory, it would greatly delay of model 3 production?

I think it is safe to assume that yes. Or at least it will slow down the ramp up of the Model 3 production.

 

[Tiberius]

Elon sent out a tweet last week saying they expect the average optioned to cost $42k. Based on this I'd expect a highly specced model to be around $50k.

It's competing with the BMW m3... how much does a highly optioned version of that car cost?

 

[Tiberius]

He just sent out another saying that they "are adding more cowbell soon"

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon sent out a tweet last week saying they expect the average optioned to cost $42k. Based on this I'd expect a highly specced model to be around $50k.

Keep dreaming. (Those low end $35k stripper versions bring the average down quick.)

 

[MrBoylan]

Elon sent out a tweet last week saying they expect the average optioned to cost $42k. Based on this I'd expect a highly specced model to be around $50k.

It's competing with the BMW m3... how much does a highly optioned version of that car cost?

A highly optioned BMW 3 series goes for around $70K. A highly optioned BMW M3 is around $90K I believe. You can play around with the configurator on the BMW web site and see.

 

[davidc18]

Based on S/X option pricing, I would expect the 3 option pricing to be the same. Tesla needs to make money and the options do just that.

 

[diamond.g]

Based on S/X option pricing, I would expect the 3 option pricing to be the same. Tesla needs to make money and the options do just that.

Elon has already said that the AWD option won't be 5k, though he didn't say how much cheaper it will be...

 

[Seesaw]

Who else is not wanting the AWD option (at this stage)? I think I would rather the frunk space, lower cost, and less weight

 

[diamond.g]

Who else is not wanting the AWD option (at this stage)? I think I would rather the frunk space, lower cost, and less weight

The question really should be are they going to allow RWD for the larger battery option. They did for the S for a while but stopped. If you look at the S at first glance it appears it is only offered with AWD....

 

[MP3Mike]

Who else is not wanting the AWD option (at this stage)? I think I would rather the frunk space, lower cost, and less weight

What makes you think that they will make two frunk designs? They may just use the same one for both AWD and RWD to save money/time. (This is supposed to be a more inexpensive car after all.)

 

[vinnie97]

The question really should be are they going to allow RWD for the larger battery option. They did for the S for a while but stopped. If you look at the S at first glance it appears it is only offered with AWD....

This effectively raises the price of the biggest battery option. I shudder to think.

 

[miggz410]

Just ordered a MS60 a week ago and will hang on to reservation... We will probably go with the same similar options. Hoping buying a MS moves us up the reservation list =)....

Base $ 35,000.00
Paint: Factory (Solid White)
Interior: Factory (Standard w/ black headliner)
Larger battery: depending with price (Will settle for the lowest if over 200 miles)
Supercharging $1500
Auto-Pilot $ 2,500
Panoramic Retractable Roof: $1500
Smart Air Suspension $ 2,000
Premium Package: $2500

Total = $45,000 +Tax +RegFees +Delivery = $50k-$51k otd...

Couple of things that might change my price... Depending on wheels and battery prices.

 

[davidc18]

Look at the option pricing on the MS/MX and you will know what the option pricing on the 3 will be. If you are expecting "discounted" pricing on 3 options I believe you will be very disappointed.

 

[diamond.g]

Look at the option pricing on the MS/MX and you will know what the option pricing on the 3 will be. If you are expecting "discounted" pricing on 3 options I believe you will be very disappointed.

We know, per Elon, that Dual Motor will be cheaper than the 5k they charge for the MX/MS. So the others could be less expensive as well, though by how much is anyones guess.

 

[miggz410]

We know, per Elon, that Dual Motor will be cheaper than the 5k they charge for the MX/MS. So the others could be less expensive as well, though by how much is anyones guess.

I doubt options like auto-pilot, supercharger, air suspension, leather seats, and panoramic roof will be discounted... I think a lot of people will be surprised or disappointed if they think that the Model 3 will have the same battery options as the Model S. I wont be surprised if they re-introduce 40kwh or something close like a 45-50kwh as the base battery for the Model 3. With the option to upgrade to a 60kwh and 75kwh.. With the option to choose D for an extra cost.

 

[ummgood]

I doubt options like auto-pilot, supercharger, air suspension, leather seats, and panoramic roof will be discounted... I think a lot of people will be surprised or disappointed if they think that the Model 3 will have the same battery options as the Model S. I wont be surprised if they re-introduce 40kwh or something close like a 45-50kwh as the base battery for the Model 3. With the option to upgrade to a 60kwh and 75kwh.. With the option to choose D for an extra cost.

I agree with most of what you are saying but one thing to consider is there is now a cost savings for mass production. Seats cost a lot less if you buy 200,000 interiors worth a year instead of 40,000. If they pass that on to the consumer is anyone's guess. Personally for me if the options stay at the current pricing levels it will definitely make me second guess buying the car.

 

[miggz410]

I agree with most of what you are saying but one thing to consider is there is now a cost savings for mass production. Seats cost a lot less if you buy 200,000 interiors worth a year instead of 40,000. If they pass that on to the consumer is anyone's guess. Personally for me if the options stay at the current pricing levels it will definitely make me second guess buying the car.

Only way I see them dropping the price is if they used cheaper materials or parts for the model 3... If they used the same material for seats and interior as the model S, then that would drop the price of the Model S options also. I dont think it will really matter at the end.