Pricing Predictions for tomorrow: 1/1/2023?

[TesslaBull]

I'm really curious if there will be immediate changes on the Tesla website tomorrow.

As most of us know, you can't even *order* a LR AWD currently. Only SR or Performance. Can't even order the LR AWD.
1)Will a RWD LR be offered again to make it easier for Tesla to come in under $55k for the tax rebate? This make sense to me as it would get MSRP far enough under $55k that they could still sell upgrades for paint and wheels and still come in under $55k
2) Gonna make it REALLY tough to sell ANY model 3 over $55k since it will add an additional $7500 to the price. In other words, let's say a RWD LR is $52k. M3P is $62k....so you get AWD, crazy fast, better brakes, wheels, etc, but its +$10k in MSRP + $7500 for no tax credit. Ouch. Now its +$17,500
3) RWD SR about $40k with rebate, M3 LR AWD will be *more than* $15k higher if it doesn't come in under $55k. If they price the LR AWD just under $55k, they will *NEVER* sell premium color or wheels as it would make a paint upgrade cost like $8-$9k!! Same for wheels.

So this all has me really curious what will come about tomorrow as far as what models are offered and how they are priced. Might be that the car I *just* bought for $61,500 and thought I got a great deal with $7500 off will be $54,999, plus a $7500 tax credit!

If the only M3 they offer under $55k is the RWD SR, sales for AWD models will plummet drastically.

Perhaps:
1) RWD SR $45,000
2) RWD LR $48,000
3) AWD LR $52,500(leaves room for wheels, paint)
4) M3P $54,999

The $7500 rebate on everything will increase sales volume enough to offset the lower margin.

???

 

[The Other Dan]

I predict... the day will be almost exactly like today. Not much will change,other than I'll forget to write 2023 on the date.

 

[LoL-Gas]

That would be awesome if they bring back the LR RWD. Best version of the car I’ve had for road trips.

 

[mgs333]

I don't think anything will change on 1/1 except more inventory starting to show up.

 

[TesslaBull]

Well, looks like nothing exciting. In fact, nothing at all. Zero inventory available, and only models available to place an order for are RWD SR or AWD Performance.

Correction...there is one RWD M3, and plenty of Model Y within 200 miles for me.

 

[hlin07]

one thing is almost certainly going to happen, M3LR will drop below 55k.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I predict mostly nothing.

The end-of-year discounts will expire.

Some smart people will check the 7-seat box on the Model Y when ordering.

At some point Tesla may add base trims of various models optimized to fit within tax price ranges, but I doubt they'll be in a hurry about it.

Tesla is making more 4680 cells, but only around 1/3rd the amount needed to just cover the Model Y US production, so those are likely gonna power the coming Semis and Cybertrucks first.

 

[bradtem]

Earlier, when Teslas were hard to get your hands on and you had to wait for delivery, I predicted Tesla would raise prices when the rebates arrived. After all, when they lost the rebate in 2019, they lowered prices to compensate.
But then they had a slow quarter and were giving people $7500 discounts to take cars in 2022, so it seems they are not too likely to raise prices, certainly not by much, unless they find there is a waiting room again.

There may not be. Between the rise in competitor supply, the rise in Tesla supply and Musk scaring away customers, demand and supply are now more in tune. However, they will tweak some prices to come in just under $55K probably. They will see everybody who is not a fool ordering the 7 seat MY, and if not, they may make a $55K version of the 5-seat MY with less battery or software features removed that you can add later. In Canada they even sold the car with a disabled battery to get below the price limit, and then let you buy the battery back after the sale.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Earlier, when Teslas were hard to get your hands on and you had to wait for delivery, I predicted Tesla would raise prices when the rebates arrived. After all, when they lost the rebate in 2019, they lowered prices to compensate.
But then they had a slow quarter and were giving people $7500 discounts to take cars in 2022, so it seems they are not too likely to raise prices, certainly not by much, unless they find there is a waiting room again.

There may not be. Between the rise in competitor supply, the rise in Tesla supply and Musk scaring away customers, demand and supply are now more in tune. However, they will tweak some prices to come in just under $55K probably. They will see everybody who is not a fool ordering the 7 seat MY, and if not, they may make a $55K version of the 5-seat MY with less battery or software features removed that you can add later. In Canada they even sold the car with a disabled battery to get below the price limit, and then let you buy the battery back after the sale.

I figure Tesla puts prices wherever needed to get the demand levels that match their factory output. Not an exciting policy, but a very practical one. With incentives inbound, that should put more money into the purchasing decision both at Tesla and competitors (those that made the incredibly arbitrary cut that is). This would likely balance prices upward against an overall downward pressure as competition increases and supply chains become more stable...