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Pricing strategy for 2023?

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I'm one. At the time I believed it all.

The December cuts were based on a looming Federal Credit, that was true.

Inventory at the end of the quarter did sell. Cars for sale now may not have been available in 2022 (December or January builds). The IRS made them more expensive by calling the Model Y 5 Seater a car.

Price reductions were unlikely. Companies don't normally reduce prices that much. The IRS screwed it all up.

I was wrong. Enjoy a new Model Y for a great price.

Model S and X had price decreases from 10k-20k and nothing to do with tax credits.

Elon has said repeatedly for a long time he wanted to push volume; and if he had to choose between margin or volume he's doing volume.

Writing was on the wall for these huge price drops IMO. Once we saw huge drops in Asia it was a near certainty to happen here. The large cuts all over the world show this isn't just an IRS "screw up" as you call it.
 
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New prices for missing models that I saw in inventory before they disappeared:
  • M3 LR : $49,990
  • MY AWD: $50,990
I feel like the step up to M3LR prob makes sense for some (+86mi, +$6k) but the step down to MY AWD makes no sense (-50mi, -$2k)
I think people are most attracted to the 4680 cells and potential longer range be unlocked in the future. Otherwise it’s not worth it to save $2k and lose that much range.
 
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Model S and X had price decreases from 10k-20k and nothing to do with tax credits.

Elon has said repeatedly for a long time he wanted to push volume; and if he had to choose between margin or volume he's doing volume.

Writing was on the wall for these huge price drops IMO. Once we saw huge drops in Asia it was a near certainty to happen here. The large cuts all over the world show this isn't just an IRS "screw up" as you call it.
IMO, Model S and X were overpriced - those cars are not in the realm of the everyday buyer.

Out of the Model 3 and Y, the MYLR was absolutely dropped to be below the tax credit limit. Tesla had no reason (outside of the tax credit stuff) to drop prices on the MYLR beyond what they did at the end of December - at that time in December, they moved all the cars they had with the $7.5k credit.... demand was very strong.

I suspect that if the MY5 had qualified for the $80k limit, I think we would have seen a drop to approx $58-60k.
 
The price reductions are global, so I’m trying to understand how the IRS “screwed it all up” in China, South Korea, Germany, the UK, etc.?
this is correct.
Tesla is on the brink of actual competition, even if that competition still has a lot to learn about supply chains and charging infrastructure.
this move will preempt some competitor inroads and sustain volume at a time when Tesla is still building factories and needs cash.
the competitors are financing their production lines, while Tesla is using cash flow instead of borrowed money.
that's another cost basis advantage for Tesla, but it depends on keeping the cash flowing.

yes, Government has created a cluster 2 years in a row, and it will again at EoY 2023.
Buyers will seek to push deliveries into 2024 to capture POINT OF SALE credits rather than the tax credits that you have to wait 15 months for until tax filing.
 
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this is correct.
Tesla is on the brink of actual competition, even if that competition still has a lot to learn about supply chains and charging infrastructure.
this move will preempt some competitor inroads and sustain volume at a time when Tesla is still building factories and needs cash.
the competitors are financing their production lines, while Tesla is using cash flow instead of borrowed money.
that's another cost basis advantage for Tesla, but it depends on keeping the cash flowing.

yes, Government has created a cluster 2 years in a row, and it will again at EoY 2023.
Buyers will seek to push deliveries into 2024 to capture POINT OF SALE credits rather than the tax credits that you have to wait 15 months for until tax filing.

Not saying people at the end of the year won't try to push into '24 but at that point they would only have to wait like two months rather than 15 so may not be a huge driver.
 
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4680 enables shorter range (for same weight), slower DC charging, for a slightly lower price.
My understanding was that the slower observed charging with the current 4680s is due to other factors (smaller overall capacity, software limitations, etc). With a 4680 battery pack, given less worry about heat at high charging rates, one could potentially shorten charging times significantly with just software updates.

Wouldn’t be surprised to have TSLA software cripple the few 4680 coming out. If they didn’t and there was a significant difference, they would destroy their own sales of the other 98% of the cars they are selling with the older batteries. Totally logical.

 
My understanding was that the slower observed charging with the current 4680s is due to other factors (smaller overall capacity, software limitations, etc). With a 4680 battery pack, given less worry about heat at high charging rates, one could potentially shorten charging times significantly with just software updates.

Wouldn’t be surprised to have TSLA software cripple the few 4680 coming out. If they didn’t and there was a significant difference, they would destroy their own sales of the other 98% of the cars they are selling with the older batteries. Totally logical.

4680 development is an unknown. we only know they're working on improvements.
the only cells tested were from an early production MY-AWD that Munro did a teardown on.
no one outside Tesla knows where they are on energy density, charging rates, production yields, etc.
all speculation.
 
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My understanding was that the slower observed charging with the current 4680s is due to other factors (smaller overall capacity, software limitations, etc). With a 4680 battery pack, given less worry about heat at high charging rates, one could potentially shorten charging times significantly with just software updates.

Wouldn’t be surprised to have TSLA software cripple the few 4680 coming out. If they didn’t and there was a significant difference, they would destroy their own sales of the other 98% of the cars they are selling with the older batteries. Totally logical.

Tesla doesn’t cripple anything in my experience. They only know how to over hype, under deliver, and make excuses. Everything is bigger in Texas, especially hype. Elon gives it a C, rounded up from an F, because, you know, Elon believes it

 
The price reductions are global, so I’m trying to understand how the IRS “screwed it all up” in China, South Korea, Germany, the UK, etc.?
The amount of reduction for the Model Y in the US is due to the IRS not categorizing it as an SUV, and allowing a max $80k MSRP. That is why the MY specifically starts at $52,990, so that even with some options it qualifies (<$55k). If the MY was an SUV per the rule, then they would not have had to lower it as much, or at all.
 
New prices for missing models that I saw in inventory before they disappeared:
  • M3 LR : $49,990
  • MY AWD: $50,990
I feel like the step up to M3LR prob makes sense for some (+86mi, +$6k) but the step down to MY AWD makes no sense (-50mi, -$2k)

Agreed my M3 SR was $35K (about 5K difference as far as I recall) and I regret not paying more for the range. Only saving grace is I can pay to unlock range, but apparently it's a process.
 
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