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So I asked my other 2 coworker who got 12v replacement. They had their battery replaced after 3.5 years and around 40k miles. They didn't have to pay for the replacements. If my warning message came up 1 month earlier I didn't have to pay either. My other coworker only has about 17k miles on his M3, and no warning message yet.
My "other coworker" mentioned above just got the 12v replacement notice warning. So now 4 out of 4 of us who got Model 3 AWD in fall of 2018 got the warning messages under 4 years. I think Tesla is replacing a LOT of 12V this summer LOL.