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Probability of new battery tech?

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I have no proof, but I think among many reasons the Model X went from starting late 2013 production to 2nd half of 2014 is because an upgraded pack is in the works. Would need to be 100+ KWh to attract real buzz.
I do hope so - I have a deposit for the X. If they announce a bigger pack and a short lead time I "jump the line" and opt for the signature :)

Perhaps some improvement over the existing 85kWh based on the two newer Panasonic batteries 3.4ah and 4.0ah but there are many variables including the higher weight of the 4.ah batteries, degradation with recharge cycles over time and many other variables that require extensive testing by Tesla. More likely Gen3 will see a larger jump. 140kWh is highly unlikely in the next couple of years for the X.
Why not 140kwh? The X has more vertical space - even if they use the same battery tech they can do it... just shove more cells in it. :)
 
Why not 140kwh? The X has more vertical space - even if they use the same battery tech they can do it... just shove more cells in it. :)

Yes, that would be an option and if they decide to do that it would be very cool. I just don't think they will do that do it since it would require changes to the standard skateboard platform. And getting to 140kWh would be a lot more batteries which adds both weight and cost.
 
Regarding the Model X, what kind if range would you get running the AWD version on an 85kWh pack? I never thought this made sense. In my mind, I've always thought that a bigger/more powerful pack was in the works to make this car palatable.

They don't want to bring the Model X out with less range than the Model S (think about weight differences and a higher CD on this car too). What they really want is to introduce as many improvements along the way as the can.
 
Regarding the Model X, what kind if range would you get running the AWD version on an 85kWh pack? I never thought this made sense. In my mind, I've always thought that a bigger/more powerful pack was in the works to make this car palatable.

They don't want to bring the Model X out with less range than the Model S (think about weight differences and a higher CD on this car too). What they really want is to introduce as many improvements along the way as the can.

Battery range improvements hopefully but 140kWh seems unlikely especially since Tesla already states the Model X will come with 60 and 85kWh packs. http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx (note 40 dropped)
Model X batteries.JPG
 
Be certain that something beyond the 85 is already in testing. Companies like this are always working two steps beyond. As Elon has stated in the investor meeting, battery tech is advancing 8 to 10% / year. Depending how testing goes, so goes the release date.
 
Panasonic has already delivered some of their next generation cells for Tesla to test. That doesn't ensure production though.

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I believe that economically, Tesla will release a 100kWh pack for both the S and X about one year after starting to deliver the X. This will generate press and continue pushing sales. One year after that they will announce their Model T.
 
I believe that economically, Tesla will release a 100kWh pack for both the S and X about one year after starting to deliver the X. This will generate press and continue pushing sales. One year after that they will announce their Model T.

It would mean that the 100KWh pack will be available in 2015. I hope that this will happen in 2014 when the Model X will be launched. I think it is possible.
 
It would mean that the 100KWh pack will be available in 2015. I hope that this will happen in 2014 when the Model X will be launched. I think it is possible.

I agree. If it was the same battery pack as the "s", yet arriving two years later, really makes you not want to plunk down a whole lotta cash for something that could possibly/probably/hopefully be upgrading shortly thereafter.

Anybody have any guesses on when in 2014? I am presuming at this point it would be earliest mid-2014?
 
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Another thing to consider that is often overlooked is the possibility of better regen gains. For highway traffic it wouldn't make much of a difference, but for city driving it could make a HUGE difference. Consider that the current regen gets back less tan half the braking energy (my assessment based on the amount of acceleration at similar wattages in either direction, I don't have hard data but it looks like it's in the ballpark of 40% recovery). In the city, a large percentage of energy goes into accelerating the car, much less goes into friction. In a theoretical extreme you could drive a car with a tiny battery since you could get back almost 100% of the energy you use to accelerate every time you brake. But let's make some gross calculations to see how much you could get in a more realistic scenario.
Let's say that in city driving 70% of the energy is uses in accelerating the car and 30% in countering friction. Of that 70%, today you recover a bit less than half via regen, so out of 1KW invested you spend .3KW in friction, .7KW in accelerating and get close to .3KW back, which means that you ended up putting .7KW of energy to do that distance. If we could bring the regen efficiency to the 80% range, we could basically recover twice as much energy as we do today. That means that for each KW invested, instead of spending .3KW in friction and .7Kw in acceleration and getting .3KW back, we could get .6KW back, in essence having made the distance with .4KW as opposed to .7KW with the current regen. That is a HUGE difference, almost doubling the mileage for city driving. In practice the difference could be even bigger since not all stopping power comes from regen, at some point you actually use the brakes.
How could we get that sort of improvement in the regen?
One, in a 4WD Model X you would use two motors for braking, increasing significantly the range of braking power in which you can do pure regen. It's more than double, since today you are not just limited by the amount of regen the motor can put in, but also by the fact that regen is applied only to two weels on the S, and you can't brake too much on just two wheels without destabilizing the car. So on a 4WD Model X we might be able to use regen to replace a much larger range of braking power (perhaps making the brakes only useful for emergency stopping).
Two, putting a more efficient, transient energy storage such as an ultracapacitor, attached to regen. Charging and discharging the battery has some inefficiency associated. Storing a small amount of energy (say, .1KWh, which would be enough to store the energy of the car braking from 50Km/h to zero) in a large ultracapacitor might be less efficient volumetrically than using LiIon batteries, but given the gained regen efficiency it could be a much more efficient use of the space and volume up to a certain amount. I have to clarify that I have no clue as to the state of the art in ultracapacitors, their cost and density, but even if it is 1% as efficient as LiIon, a pack the size of a small briefcase could store more than enough to add this much capacity. As an added bonus, it would extend the battery life and provide a big boost of power for rapid acceleration beyond what the main battery pack can deliver (assuming the motors and other electronics can handle it). Of course, if an ultracapacitor doesn't have the necessary parameters, using other types of battery chemistry with less energy density but lower charge/discharge losses for a small temporary storage unit could work as well.
Finally, the regen efficiency of the motor and other electronics would have to be improved. I don't remember enough from my classes of electric motors to claim that large improvements in this area are possible, but given that it is possible to achieve very good efficiencies in acceleration I would expect that with some work very good braking efficiencies could be achieved as well.
I would put more hope in this area than in new battery chemistries in the short term. Battery chemistries will continue to improve, but a breakthrough that makes a substantial difference is still five to ten years away.

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@Johan: Actually, that's only true when you measure efficiency at the motor, not when considering distance travelled. Let's say you have to move from point A to point B. Say that A and B are at the same height. What's the energy efficiency of an electric motor in doing that transportation? It is 0%. Why? Because there was no net change in energy in the vehicle, and you still invested some energy. While this might sound like a purely academical consideration, it has practical consequences. As I posted above, regen efficiency matters. If Detroit produced an IC engine with 90% efficiency, it would still be less efficient than an EV, since the EV has a 90% driveline efficiency PLUS regen. Measuring efficiency in the traditional way can easily result in EVs drivelines being rated as more than 100% efficient (you have 90% efficiency to start, and if you recover half that energy through regenerative braking, you end up, well, with something that doesn't make sense).
So, improve the regen efficiency from, say, 40% to 80% (which would involve bringing up the motor efficiency somewhat) and you have made a HUGE improvement in the vehicle's efficiency.
 
How could we get that sort of improvement in the regen?
One, in a 4WD Model X you would use two motors for braking, increasing significantly the range of braking power in which you can do pure regen. It's more than double, since today you are not just limited by the amount of regen the motor can put in, but also by the fact that regen is applied only to two weels on the S, and you can't brake too much on just two wheels without destabilizing the car. So on a 4WD Model X we might be able to use regen to replace a much larger range of braking power (perhaps making the brakes only useful for emergency stopping).

It can't possibly be "more than double": you have only twice as much equipment (wheels/motors), so the best possible case is that you get twice the regen power - in cases where regen was limited by traction or by motor power rating. Unfortunately, in practice the regen is also significantly limited by the battery's ability to accept charge (which is typically much lower than the rate at which it can discharge), so for much of the typical cycle you aren't going to get any improvement at all. However, the corner cases which are limited by either motor or traction should give some gain.

Two, putting a more efficient, transient energy storage such as an ultracapacitor, attached to regen.

This is indeed the holy grail of regen. Unfortunately, there is no sign that Tesla is planning to use them any time soon. Given Elon Musk's personal (pre-Tesla) interest in the science of Supercapacitors, you can be sure that Tesla are watching developments, so the only conclusion is that Tesla don't believe the currently available supercaps to be good enough.

I don't remember enough from my classes of electric motors to claim that large improvements in this area are possible, but given that it is possible to achieve very good efficiencies in acceleration I would expect that with some work very good braking efficiencies could be achieved as well.

Theory would suggest that the efficiency when regenerating should be approximately the same as when accelerating, although of course in a simple test (rolling at some speed, regen to stop, attempt to accelerate back to speed using that energy) you see the losses twice over: once when charging (regen0, and again when discharging (acceleration). I see no reason to believe that the efficiency in regen isn't already 'very good'.


The one other potential improvement to overall efficiency (rather than regen) that you don't mention is the benefit from having two different gear ratios in the 4WD (discussed on another thread). Probably more of a performance benefit, but likely some efficiency gain to be had in certain speed ranges.


So, altogether I think that a conservative estimate for the gains in regen and gearing from having 4WD should be enough to offset the losses from having a second transmission spinning all the time - giving on average same range for 4WD vs 2WD. If you were a bit optimistic, maybe the 4WD will be slightly better on average - possibly even enough to make a 4WD Model X equal a 2WD Model S at moderate speeds (assuming that the Model X is going to lose aerodynamically through having a bigger cross-section). Any more than that I think is wishful thinking.
 
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Something I have wondered for a while.

Were Lithium Air batteries to emerge next year, allowing for Electric Cars with a range of 500miles + would Tesla be able to use them in their vehicles? Would Tesla have to make substantial changes to their batteries or are they able to simply replace them as new tech becomes available?
 
Assuming that a) input in the form of charge rate was still within the previous range and b) output in terms of draw was within previous specifications, there shouldn't be a material reason why batteries are not interchangeable. I could foresee a firmware change for battery management being necessary.
 
It can't possibly be "more than double": you have only twice as much equipment (wheels/motors), so the best possible case is that you get twice the regen power - in cases where regen was limited by traction or by motor power rating. Unfortunately, in practice the regen is also significantly limited by the battery's ability to accept charge (which is typically much lower than the rate at which it can discharge), so for much of the typical cycle you aren't going to get any improvement at all. However, the corner cases which are limited by either motor or traction should give some gain.

Actually yes, it can be more than double because the limiting factor is likely not the equipment but the fact that if you used all the possible regen power (which should not be far from the acceleration power) to the rear wheels, the car would lose control. Having two motors allows you to increase the amount of regen you get from the rear motor AND dds whatever you can get from the front motor (which should be even more given that a the front wheels carry more weight during braking). So you might probably be able to get close to 320KW of regen per motor (minus losses), compared to the 60KW max you have today, limited both by losses and the fact that you can only apply a fraction of the maximum regen possible when only the rear wheels are braking.
Anyway, the point is not about the exact numbers, it is about the fact that there's a lot of potential range gain (at least for city driving) without touching the battery. When talking abut extending range people tend to only think on new battery tech, but regen optimization could yield a very significant difference as well, especially on a 4WD vehicle.

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I see no reason to believe that the efficiency in regen isn't already 'very good'.

Here's a reason: accelerate to 50mph, then lift the pedal: you'll feel a certain acceleration while regen goes to about 60KW. Now, step on the accelerator and try to keep energy t plus 60KW. You'll see that the car accelerates just a fraction of what it decelerated while getting the 60KW. The difference between the two are the losses (which happen after the energy is extracted from the battery, which is what is displayed, and before it is sent back to the battery). I used an old car accelerometer and measured about 40% regen efficiency, which is better than a prius but still has lots of room for improvement.
 
Having two motors allows you to increase the amount of regen you get from the rear motor

If that were true, then yes you could get more than double. But why do you believe that what you are doing on the front wheels increases the regen you can apply to the rear wheels? If the rear wheels were on the point of slipping (or as close to it as traction control was prepared to let it go) at a certain regen power, then they still will be.

But all of that assumes traction is actually the main limiting factor on the current regen. Since you get up to 360kW acceleration but only 60kW regen, this seems unlikely. Some of the difference will be in the traction control needing to be more conservative in the regen case (you can be allowed to go out of control by pressing the pedal to the floor, since you can always back off), but a big part is the asymmetric characteristics of the batteries: they can be discharged much faster than they can be charged. Note that Supercharging only goes to a max of 90kW (and that over only the bottom 30% of the state-of-charge), so offering 60kW of regen over most of the SoC range is probably close to the limits of what the batteries can take. There's still scope for improvement from the 4WD in the cases where regen currently achieves less than 60kW - when transitioning to full regen and at lower speeds - but not the huge improvement you are looking for.

It would be interesting to know what the max regen is on 60kWh battery cars.

Of course, as you pointed out, Supercaps offer the potential to improve this massively in the future.

Here's a reason: accelerate to 50mph, then lift the pedal: you'll feel a certain acceleration while regen goes to about 60KW. Now, step on the accelerator and try to keep energy t plus 60KW. You'll see that the car accelerates just a fraction of what it decelerated while getting the 60KW. The difference between the two are the losses (which happen after the energy is extracted from the battery, which is what is displayed, and before it is sent back to the battery). I used an old car accelerometer and measured about 40% regen efficiency, which is better than a prius but still has lots of room for improvement.

That's an interesting experiment, but it doesn't say much about the relative efficiency of acceleration vs deceleration: the 40% overall efficiency that you record could be 63% efficiency in the regen followed by 63% efficiency in the acceleration (.63*.63 = .4), or anywhere between.

Also, in your experiment you've not accounted for aerodynamic drag, which is decreasing the acceleration you see at a given power and increasing the deceleration you get when regenerating that amount of power, and at 50mph that will be significant. If you are trying to measure the efficiency of the regen system, you need to take out the deceleration that drag would have given you just coasting at zero power. If you measure the deceleration at zero power, you need to subtract this from the measurement you made at 60kW regen to get the acceleration due to the regen. And you then need to subtract it again to get the acceleration you would expect for 60kW drive at 100% efficiency, since part of the power is going to overcoming drag rather than acceleration.

Another way to look at this is to measure the power taken to drive 50mph with no acceleration - maybe around 15kW? - and add/subtract that from the power figures you used: when regenerating at a measured 60kW, the deceleration is actually generating 75kW (60kW back into the battery, and 15kW to keep the car moving), while the corresponding power you should be using is 90kW (15kW to keep the car rolling at constant speed, plus 75kW to achieve the same acceleration as before [this is not quite accurate because the 15kW already includes one set of motor inefficiency in it].
 
IMHO I doubt the Model X will use anything different than the Model S in terms of battery and invertors (other than whatever is needed to enable AWD). Proven concept, works well, production lines already setup for this configuration, etc. I do expect some advancements in Gen III though. Cost needs to come way down, so newer tech needed for that I think. Also other advancements are being made all the time, like this one where it's possible to design a lithium-ion battery for an electric vehicle that can be fully charged in 1 minute http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...ery-that-charges-120-times-faster-than-normal

If tech like that comes into reality on electric vehicles - bye bye gas stations. I think that would be the nail in the coffin for ICE vehicles. 'plug in ... one minute passes .. unplug and go'. VERY cool idea. I want! If that does happen soon though, in 10 years the Model S will feel like having a 10 year old computer. I mean that's like if I was still using a single core pentium 4 LOL. I guess our cars would be like 'new antiques' lol. I know what the right answer is - better tech better tech! Though the guy on my other shoulder says 'i hope it takes longer so my car is worth more later'. :(
 
If that were true, then yes you could get more than double. But why do you believe that what you are doing on the front wheels increases the regen you can apply to the rear wheels? If the rear wheels were on the point of slipping (or as close to it as traction control was prepared to let it go) at a certain regen power, then they still will be.

If you could brake with two wheels until the point of slippage, then yes, you wouldn't get more than double. But that's not the case. Braking with just two wheels completely unbalances the car. It makes turning trajectories to go awry when braking. It puts the car at a risk of going into a spin after two tires hit a poodle or drive over a manhole cover. If you are braking with just two wheels, you can't get to any considerable braking power without getting a completely unbalanced car. Accelerating is a different matter, because when you accelerate most of the weight goes to the rear wheels, but when you are braking most of the weight goes to the front wheels, so the unbalancing effect is seriously increased.

That's an interesting experiment, but it doesn't say much about the relative efficiency of acceleration vs deceleration: the 40% overall efficiency that you record could be 63% efficiency in the regen followed by 63% efficiency in the acceleration (.63*.63 = .4), or anywhere between.

If the losses are symmetric, yes. But I understand the losses during charging are bigger than the losses during discharging (which is part of the reason for the difference in rates). Tuning of the electronics for the two scenarios also may make a huge difference. And that's my whole point: we KNOW that the efficiency of the discharge (acceleration) cycle is very high, above 90%. And we also know there's a huge net loss in the charge-discharge (regen-accelerate) cycle. So it must be concluded that regen is inefficient. And I could understand that, if you have to spend money, weight and complexity in optimize the car, you start by optimizing acceleration. But that still leaves lots of potential gain on the other part of the cycle.

You are right about the aero drag (and other friction losses) but keep in mind that 50mph wasn't the average speed of the cycle, but the top speed, so those 15Kw you quote would actually be less than half. Also, repeat the cycle at 30mph where such losses are minimal and you'll see almost the same difference. BTW, I just did a different experiment today which confirms my calculations to some extent. I have a steep, long incline on the way home. I coasted down with the pedal up, and the car sped and then stayed at 25mph, at about 40KW regen power. On the way back, I drove up at 25mph constant speed. The car needed more than 80kw (couldn't do a good measurement since it was just one run, but I think it was close to 100Kw) to maintain that speed when going up. So there is indeed a very significant difference between the energy going in and going out for the whole cycle. Even discounting drag and friction, and considering that the discharge cycle is more than 90% efficient, I would be surprised if the regen cycle was much more than 50% efficient today.

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IMHO I doubt the Model X will use anything different than the Model S in terms of battery and invertors (other than whatever is needed to enable AWD). Proven concept, works well, production lines already setup for this configuration, etc. I do expect some advancements in Gen III though. Cost needs to come way down, so newer tech needed for that I think. Also other advancements are being made all the time, like this one where it's possible to design a lithium-ion battery for an electric vehicle that can be fully charged in 1 minute http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...ery-that-charges-120-times-faster-than-normal

If tech like that comes into reality on electric vehicles - bye bye gas stations. I think that would be the nail in the coffin for ICE vehicles. 'plug in ... one minute passes .. unplug and go'. VERY cool idea. I want! If that does happen soon though, in 10 years the Model S will feel like having a 10 year old computer. I mean that's like if I was still using a single core pentium 4 LOL. I guess our cars would be like 'new antiques' lol. I know what the right answer is - better tech better tech! Though the guy on my other shoulder says 'i hope it takes longer so my car is worth more later'. :(

Ummm. A 60KWh battery charged in one minute, that would require thousands of Ampere, even at 480V. A perfect copper wire would have to be thicker than a fire hose to support that. So no, don't expect one minute charging this decade or the next one, even if the batteries get to that level (unless charging stations become substantially different, for example with hundreds of charging connectors attaching to the car from below, but that sort of approach doesn't sound practical in the short term).
 
If that does happen soon though, in 10 years the Model S will feel like having a 10 year old computer. I mean that's like if I was still using a single core pentium 4 LOL. I guess our cars would be like 'new antiques' lol. I know what the right answer is - better tech better tech! Though the guy on my other shoulder says 'i hope it takes longer so my car is worth more later'. :(

I essentially made the same comment in another thread. People were posting these non-sense comments about just being able to keep upgrading their cars. I asked if that was true - are they using 4 year old cell phones or laptops? As noted above, if you knew a 100+ Kwh battery option was going to be available 1 or 2 years after introduction of the Model X - would you still want an early version? I think many people would postpone their purchase. Tech is going to make these early cars relics - they will be out-dated before the tires wear out - well, maybe not quite that fast but certainly before the interior carpet and seats show normal wear & tear.
 
If you could brake with two wheels until the point of slippage, then yes, you wouldn't get more than double. But that's not the case. Braking with just two wheels completely unbalances the car. It makes turning trajectories to go awry when braking. It puts the car at a risk of going into a spin after two tires hit a poodle or drive over a manhole cover. If you are braking with just two wheels, you can't get to any considerable braking power without getting a completely unbalanced car. Accelerating is a different matter, because when you accelerate most of the weight goes to the rear wheels, but when you are braking most of the weight goes to the front wheels, so the unbalancing effect is seriously increased.

Agreed that the limit being applied by traction control will need to be much less than the ultimate point of slippage (and much less than the limit applied when accelerating). But whatever that limit is to give a comfortable margin of safety when the driver just 'lets go', I can't see that it can be any higher (for the same margin) once the front wheels start braking too - if anything, it's going to be worse because the braking at the front further unloads the rear.

On the other hand, I was ignoring the fact that weight transfer means the maximum braking at the front (to an equivalent margin of traction) will be greater than the rear, so I admit my analysis was too simplistic and on a purely traction-limited basis there could be more than twice the regen braking available on four wheels compared to just the rear two.

However, the real question is how much regen is in fact limited by traction. My suspicion is that the 60kW top limit comes mainly from the battery, but there might still be useful savings where the current system doesn't actually reach the top limit - in the slope up to full power as the regen comes on, and/or at lower speeds.

BTW, I just did a different experiment today which confirms my calculations to some extent. I have a steep, long incline on the way home. I coasted down with the pedal up, and the car sped and then stayed at 25mph, at about 40KW regen power. On the way back, I drove up at 25mph constant speed. The car needed more than 80kw (couldn't do a good measurement since it was just one run, but I think it was close to 100Kw) to maintain that speed when going up. So there is indeed a very significant difference between the energy going in and going out for the whole cycle. Even discounting drag and friction, and considering that the discharge cycle is more than 90% efficient, I would be surprised if the regen cycle was much more than 50% efficient today.

That's a good experiment, eliminating more of the variables, and certainly confirms as we suspected that the round-trip efficiency of the drive-regen-drive cycle is not very high. But I'm suspicious of your 90% number: it seems high for the overall drive case. Maybe it's a figure for just one element in the drive chain?

For the battery, it is difficult to clearly allocate losses to discharge vs charge, since every use of the battery involves both: I suspect it's common to regard drive efficiency as being from the output of the battery to the wheels, with all losses in the battery being 'charging losses' (between what you put in to the charger and what you get out, the two things that are easily measured - which lumps together losses which occurred during charging plus those that occurred during discharge). So our round-trip regen has regen losses (motor/electrical from wheels to battery input), battery losses, and drive losses from battery output back to wheels.

I would expect the losses in the motor to be symmetric - though this immediately gives you a lower efficiency when measured as a percentage. If you have a particular combination of rotor/stator currents that gives you best efficiency when driving at a certain torque (and hence output power at constant speed), then the same currents in reverse will give you the same regen torque. The losses in the motor are all also controlled by those currents, so you will have the same numerical losses in the regen case, but you are comparing them against a smaller number so the percentage efficiency is less. For example, if the motor is 90% efficient and you are driving 100kW, then 90kW is going to the output shaft and 10kW in losses: with regen at the exact same torque and speed, there is 90kW coming in through the shaft, the exact same 10kW going to losses, so only 80kW electrical output, so only 88% efficiency.

The drive electronics is harder to reason about without knowledge of the topology Tesla have chosen. Efficiency here is mainly a cost/weight trade-off (unlike the motor which has more constraints), and the drive/regen paths could be shared or separate to varying degrees, so it is possible that Tesla has sacrificed some efficiency in the regen side, though I would expect this to be the most efficient step of the whole chain and so not a big number either way.

These losses do add up though: if we guess at 88% motor efficiency in regen,. 95% electronics efficiency (each direction), 80% battery efficiency (charge/discharge combined), and 90% motor efficiency when driving, that gives:

88% * 95% * 80% * 95% * 90% = 57% round trip efficiency

You seem to be measuring something a bit worse than this, but it's not far off. So while there's always improvement to be made, I'm not convinced there's huge 'low hanging fruit' here to be picked.

[disclaimer: my experience of building motor drives is with BLDC rather than induction, and at lower powers, though I believe the physics is largely the same].
 
> The drive electronics is harder to reason about without knowledge of the topology Tesla have chosen. Efficiency here is mainly a cost/weight trade-off (unlike the motor which has more constraints), and the drive/regen paths could be shared or separate to varying degrees, so it is possible that Tesla has sacrificed some efficiency in the regen side, though I would expect this to be the most efficient step of the whole chain and so not a big number either way.

That is potentially one big source of difference between the two parts of the cycle: the electronics used to generate a wave pulse are different from those to rectify the signal and generate DC for the batteries. If it wasn't for charging batteries the circuit to rectify the signal would be very efficient, but given that this circuit has to actually regulate voltage depending on the battery charge level, and potentially even do so differentially for different parts of the battery bank, it might not be as efficient.
But I'm pretty confident on the 90% efficiency for the plugged charge to acceleration discharge cycle, which is based on Tesla's well to wheel articles from some time ago (granted, those were for the roadster, but they shouldn't be worse for the Model S), so I still think there's something that makes the regen less efficient.
On the other hand, those are just details that I will leave to Tesla, I'm not even close to be qualified to do that sort of tuning (I only built an electric car once, many years ago, and it had so many losses we didn't need a heat pump for warming the cabin). My actual point was about the fallacy of electric cars being very efficient. Given that the actual theoretical energy investment required to move a vehicle between two points at the same latitude is close to zero, every car, even one with a very efficient propulsion system as the Model S, is extremely inefficient overall. Gains in battery capacity are important, but I think significant gains in aerodynamics, rolling resistance, regeneration and other aspects can yield equally large gains without changing the battery energy density. And unlike advances in battery, efficiency gains do save energy (and potentially even reduce the car costs and weight if they allow the battery pack to be smaller for a similar range).
 
AC drive has regen *at no additional cost* i.e. no special hardware. You don't get AC drive without regen capability apart from disabling it in software.
All necessary hardware for regen is already there doing 'normal driving' when the car is moving slower than you want it to go.