Production delays and loss of tax credit dilema

[ModelNforNerd]

I'm having a similar crisis (lol). I don't think the tax plan will pass as it's currently written. The EV tax credit has some well-connected benefactors (the automakers' lobbyists), so there's a good chance it sticks around, or...this bill stalls out to the point they won't enact anything until the 2019 tax year.

But for me....I've decided that maybe I can get to a new Performance Model 3 this time next year. If I strike now, while the value of my current car is high enough, I can move into a CPO Model S, which will likely depreciate slower than an Audi A3 with 40K miles on it.

I'll let Elon and Tesla get the kinks worked out on the S-curve, and a lot of you will get your Model 3's before I do.

But then, next fall, I'll be considered an "owner", and I'll put confirm my order for a Performance 3, and enjoy the increased range over the RWD S I'll probably be in.

 

[RobStark]

 

[navguy12]

4.20 for a cup of coffee? I'm glad I drink tea, for less than 10¢ a cup! (I realize that wasn't your point, but your daily cost example did catch my attention!)

I know the example is a little much. I don't drink coffee at all, but when I'm traveling with someone who does, the Tim Hortons extra large double double is over $2.50 with tax. And a large cappuccino with tax is over $5.00.

Saving money by not spending it frivolously — decades of bag lunches versus eating out, driving a 25 year old car, no visits to Starbucks, and that sort of thing — allowed me to save enough to be able to buy a (CPO) Tesla. [Although I drew flak from some because my income is too low to qualify for the federal tax credit — the concept of savings and investments completely escapes such people.]

It is old fashioned these days, but someone once said, "A penny saved is a penny earned".

 

[TEG]

I understand completely and I commiserate, but if your heart is set on the TM3 you will be VERY disappointed with the Chevy. If you were to get a less than optimal TM3 with your priorities, consider doing it anyway. Drive it for 3 years (and save all that tax money Hair Trump is going to give you). Then trade it in on the latest and greatest TM3 applying the $7,500 dollars in tax savings over 3 years. It is hard to give advice if we don't know what State you reside. If you live in California, the State will pay for half your PUP ($2,500).
I believe that if the EV tax credit goes away, there will be a YUGE market for CPO TM3s!........and you will have the pleasure of driving a "starter" TM3 in the meantime.

Yeah, something like that... I am in California.

If the fed credit stays, I get LR. If it goes away I get SR, and give dirty looks to all the relatives of employees that got LR for approx the same price as me... Plans for some longer road trips could fizzle, but still better than a Bolt. I would curse the current fed administration every time I have to do 0-60 in 5.6 instead of 5.1, and charge at 32a instead of 40a...

( Note to Tesla: please get me into that December delivery window so I don't have to agonize over this anymore ! )

 

[McHoffa]

If you wait, and the tax credit goes away, most likely the Bolt prices will drop to compensate. If you wait the Model 3 Standard Battery will also become available which is $14,000 cheaper than the LR+PUP, so that should cover the tax credit and let you add some options back...unless you really need the range.

If OP really needs the range, then the Bolt wouldn't be much better than standard Model 3 (238 vs 220 miles), not to mention the lack of supercharging. I'd say no matter how you slice it, a $35k Model 3 will be better than a $38k Chevy Bolt, and a $44k Model 3 will be worlds better than a fully loaded $44k Bolt (that would almost get you base + EAP + PUP). I haven't been in the Model 3 yet (just watched every video multiple times), but I've been in and driven a Bolt and there is no way I'd pay full price for one. Not an awful car by any means, but when you compare prices, features and quality, even without the tax credit on the Model 3, I couldn't imagine paying for a Bolt.

Definitely be patient. I'm in the same boat, and in my case it's even worse as not getting mine this year means having to fork over money for taxes by April (which would come from my down payment) vs getting a little money back. But my plan is to either get it in December if they ramp up, or hold off and get it in May whether I can still get the tax credit or not (by which time I might be able to get white interior too).

 

[TEG]

The $7500 tax credit may not seem so substantial on a $100K+ car, but on a ~$40K car, it is a substantial portion. And I think car shoppers tend to be a lot more cost sensitive at the ~$35K price area.

Personally, I am in the "stretch to $40K" mindset, whereas I think some Model S and X buyers could afford a $200K+ vehicle if they saw something they liked more than their P100D. So, I feel obliged to point out that the incentive is very significant to some of us, even though some people post on the forums like "what is the big deal?"

Tesla's "start at the top" business model probably wasn't the best approach to these incentives. They matter more now to the Model 3 buyers than they did to the buyers of the earlier models. Too bad for the Model 3 buyers that Roadster/S/X buyers used up most of the credits already.

Tesla's CEO with net worth in many billions, and running so many huge operations, probably doesn't see $7500 as much money either.

 

[K-MTG]

The $7500 tax credit may not seem so substantial on a $100K+ car, but on a ~$40K car, it is a substantial portion. And I think car shoppers tend to be a lot more cost sensitive at the ~$35K price area.

Personally, I am in the "stretch to $40K" mindset, whereas I think some Model S and X buyers could afford a $200K+ vehicle if they saw something they liked more than their P100D. So, I feel obliged to point out that the incentive is very significant to some of us, even though some people post on the forums like "what is the big deal?"

Tesla's "start at the top" business model probably wasn't the best approach to these incentives. They matter more now to the Model 3 buyers than they did to the buyers of the earlier models. Too bad for the Model 3 buyers that Roadster/S/X buyers used up most of the credits already.

Tesla's CEO with net worth in many billions, and running so many huge operations, probably doesn't see $7500 as much money either.

One guy I know is buying a 3 for all 4 of his kids who are in college and the tax credit is important to him....even though his car collection is probably valued at over 1 million

 

[Yuri_G]

The $7500 tax credit may not seem so substantial on a $100K+ car, but on a ~$40K car, it is a substantial portion. And I think car shoppers tend to be a lot more cost sensitive at the ~$35K price area.

Personally, I am in the "stretch to $40K" mindset, whereas I think some Model S and X buyers could afford a $200K+ vehicle if they saw something they liked more than their P100D. So, I feel obliged to point out that the incentive is very significant to some of us, even though some people post on the forums like "what is the big deal?"

Tesla's "start at the top" business model probably wasn't the best approach to these incentives. They matter more now to the Model 3 buyers than they did to the buyers of the earlier models. Too bad for the Model 3 buyers that Roadster/S/X buyers used up most of the credits already.

Tesla's CEO with net worth in many billions, and running so many huge operations, probably doesn't see $7500 as much money either.

The approach is to generate the most cash up front to fund the manufacturing of more 3's and growth for Tesla. It was done with the S and the X. The tax credit makes a difference, but it's out of Tesla's hands whether it stays or goes at this point.

 

[insaneoctane]

I wish Elon could get some smart lawyers (and engineers) to figure out how to creatively "deliver" the product before Dec 31, even if it's not really quite ready.....

 

[Robpdx]

I have seen Bolts on sale for as much as $5500 off so a Bolt might be an option for you (keyes Chevrolet in Van Nuys CA). There is a plan B here in Oregon. Jan 1st brings a $2500 state credit, so I might switch my 2WD version and now wait for an AWD.

 

[McHoffa]

The $7500 tax credit may not seem so substantial on a $100K+ car, but on a ~$40K car, it is a substantial portion. And I think car shoppers tend to be a lot more cost sensitive at the ~$35K price area.

Personally, I am in the "stretch to $40K" mindset, whereas I think some Model S and X buyers could afford a $200K+ vehicle if they saw something they liked more than their P100D. So, I feel obliged to point out that the incentive is very significant to some of us, even though some people post on the forums like "what is the big deal?"

Tesla's "start at the top" business model probably wasn't the best approach to these incentives. They matter more now to the Model 3 buyers than they did to the buyers of the earlier models. Too bad for the Model 3 buyers that Roadster/S/X buyers used up most of the credits already.

Tesla's CEO with net worth in many billions, and running so many huge operations, probably doesn't see $7500 as much money either.

Some people buying a 3 don’t even have a full $7500 tax liability but most anyone buying S/X would. Starting at the top was the only viable path to get where we are today.

 

[RobStark]

John McCain Confirms: Tax Reform Is "DOA In The Senate"

It’s official: The Republican tax reform bill is dead on arrival in the Senate now that John McCain has become the third Republican senator to confirm that he plans to vote against it.

 

[TEG]

That sounds like great news from an EV credit standpoint !
Still would love to get a Model 3 in December, but at least now I will not do something drastic like buy a Bolt in a big hurry out of panic.

(Getting a Model 3 after Dec 31st means waiting a whole additional year for the tax credit, but at least it should still be available.)

 

[206er]

John McCain Confirms: Tax Reform Is "DOA In The Senate"

It’s official: The Republican tax reform bill is dead on arrival in the Senate now that John McCain has become the third Republican senator to confirm that he plans to vote against it.

Is this real or fake news? I'd like to believe it's real, but seems like it's potentially a fake news click bait article written by the fictional head of Fight Club (movie)... plus, this article was posted on 11/6 and I still haven't seen anything from other sources about McCain's plan to kill tax reform.

 

[RobStark]

Is this real or fake news? I'd like to believe it's real, but seems like it's potentially a fake news click bait article written by the fictional head of Fight Club (movie)... plus, this article was posted on 11/6 and I still haven't seen anything from other sources about McCain's plan to kill tax reform.

Zero Hedge is right 97% of the time. Sometimes they jump the gun and wrong.

 

[EVNow]

John McCain Confirms: Tax Reform Is "DOA In The Senate"

It’s official: The Republican tax reform bill is dead on arrival in the Senate now that John McCain has become the third Republican senator to confirm that he plans to vote against it.

Its not clear to me the tax bill is "dead". Definitely the house bill will not pass as is. There will be changes. We need to keep calling our reps to make sure they hear about EV tax credits. Even a small % of vocal people can put pressure on representatives.

 

[TEG]

One type of "fake news" could make people think it was already dead, so they don't take action...

 

[T34ME]

If the fed credit stays, I get LR. If it goes away I get SR, and give dirty looks to all the relatives of employees that got LR for approx the same price as me... Plans for some longer road trips could fizzle, but still better than a Bolt. I would curse the current fed administration every time I have to do 0-60 in 5.6 instead of 5.1, and charge at 32a instead of 40a...

If I were in your position, I would just hold tight and see what happens rather than impulsively a car (Bolt) I really didn't want. The results of the election last night and the wavering support of some Senators means the bill could probably be significantly modified. And then California holds the trump card. Jerry Brown has a lot of influence and power to change the California tax rebate. And then there is creative tax planning that could fund an equal $7,500 tax credit, depending on the provisions of the final bill that is passed, which is beyond the scope of this thread. I think if the two of us were to sit down over a favorite beverage, we could figure out a strategy to get the TM3 you want without selling the farm.

 

[Kipernicus]

TEG, you've been TMC guru and waiting for this moment for over 10 years.
I can't believe you're even contemplating not getting the Model 3!
If you don't get the tax credit, I'll start a GoFundMe campaign for you!
I've certainly gotten a lot of value from your involvement on TMC.
Who's with me?

 

[Kardax]

I've been on this forum almost as long and there's no way I'm backing out now. If the tax credit goes away, I'll cover the gap somehow. Since I'm likely to get mine in 2018, I'll have to do so for nearly a year even if it stays.