Production now at 3500 Model 3s per week

[dhanson865]

We will see how many reservation convert to sales. Elon seems to be very sensitive on talking about this.

He was only sensitive to talking on it in past tense. He just didn't want to feed the trolls.

Once AWD, Performance, and white interior are out in the mix and the company has had a profitable quarter he'll be more willing to discuss. Give it 6 to 9 months and see if the quarterly statement doesn't have some published numbers on conversion rates.

 

[Moderatefan]

Seems 5K+ is already here...all he needs is just add the 3rd shift.

And considering other improvements are coming @ the end of May during 6-day factory shutdown, it seems very likely we'll see 6K+ in July.
Tesla plans six-day stoppage at factory for assembly line fixes:...

Not that it matters a lot to me. With my May-July range, I fully expect to get a delivery in July, once 200K in Q2 is avoided. However, this may move AWD estimates closer, potentially into $7.5K rebate range...will need to see how much it is.

 

[Thor_R]

I might be part of a small minority on this one but one of the few gripes I have with the Model 3 is the big wheels. Tires will be a significant part of the running costs. Yes, large rims improve handling in dry weather when you're driving on the limit and you may argue they look good. But it comes at the expense of decreased comfort, poorer handling in wet conditions, much lower efficiency (due to increased drag and higher rolling resistance) higher tire wear, higher suspension wear and significantly more expensive tires. That's not a favorable trade-off for a lot of people. That's why I would have much preferred a smaller 15" or 16" wheel on an EV for the masses. Between 18" aero and 19" sport the aero wheels are a no-brainer for me. I even prefer the look.

 

[N5329K]

Back to the OP, when I run Musk's statement through my Elon Distortion Field Clarifier, this is what comes out on the paper tape:
"I hope that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones some day this week.”
Just saying.
Robin

 

[TT97]

I might be part of a small minority on this one but one of the few gripes I have with the Model 3 is the big wheels. Tires will be a significant part of the running costs. Yes, large rims improve handling in dry weather when you're driving on the limit and you may argue they look good. But it comes at the expense of decreased comfort, poorer handling in wet conditions, much lower efficiency (due to increased drag and higher rolling resistance) higher tire wear, higher suspension wear and significantly more expensive tires. That's not a favorable trade-off for a lot of people. That's why I would have much preferred a smaller 15" or 16" wheel on an EV for the masses. Between 18" aero and 19" sport the aero wheels are a no-brainer for me. I even prefer the look.

I take it you will not be getting the 20" wheels?

I also prefer the smaller wheels for many of the your same points (wet weather will not make a difference as tire width is the biggest issue and all three sizes are 235s). Unfortunately, the Model 3 is a relatively heavy car due to the battery. As the car is heavy, it requires larger brakes than a smaller car - the 18" wheels are the smallest size that can fit over the brakes. There is another thread where someone tried fitting 17" on the 3 but the rims would not clear the front brakes.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I take it you will not be getting the 20" wheels?

I also prefer the smaller wheels for many of the your same points (wet weather will not make a difference as tire width is the biggest issue and all three sizes are 235s). Unfortunately, the Model 3 is a relatively heavy car due to the battery. As the car is heavy, it requires larger brakes than a smaller car - the 18" wheels are the smallest size that can fit over the brakes. There is another thread where someone tried fitting 17" on the 3 but the rims would not clear the front brakes.

I think the front brakes are fine for 17" wheels, the rear brakes are actually larger diameter. Would be silly to run different diameters front and rear though!

 

[Moderatefan]

Back to the OP, when I run Musk's statement through my Elon Distortion Field Clarifier, this is what comes out on the paper tape:
"I hope that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones some day this week.”
Just saying.
Robin

How about being optimistic, 4,300 now
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week
Plus improvements end of May - 5K, plus 3rd shift 7.5K

 

[N5329K]

How about being optimistic, 4,300 now
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week
Plus improvements end of May - 5K, plus 3rd shift 7.5K

A "friend at the factory" is a sketchy source, even when it sort of lines up with Bloomberg (semi-sketch). But I do think there's a good chance they'll get there, eventually.
Robin

 

[182RG]

We will see how many reservation convert to sales. Elon seems to be very sensitive on talking about this.

He doesn’t want to talk about the abandonment rate for reservations. I seriously doubt there are 500,000 reservations active at this point.

 

[Stirfelt]

Today I returned from a cross-country trip. Yesterday and today, I saw 5 auto transporter trucks driving east loaded with Tesla vehicles. Today on Interstate 40, two trucks were carrying 3's ..... it is possible that not all were 3's, but in the quick glance, at least several were 3's.

 

[azred]

We will see how many reservation convert to sales. Elon seems to be very sensitive on talking about this.

I have been known to be a contrarian at times too but your comment that Tesla will soon be looking for Model 3 buyers is ridiculous. But keep digging that hole.

 

[docherf]

That's why I would have much preferred a smaller 15" or 16" wheel on an EV for the masses. Between 18" aero and 19" sport the aero wheels are a no-brainer for me. I even prefer the look.

I doubt you'll see 15 inch wheels on this class of car. Even the current Honda Civic starts with 16 inch in the base model. BMW 3 series starts with 17 inch. The unique low drag i3 wheels are 19 /20 inch.

I'm curious though what size the car makers would choose if appearance wasn't a factor.

 

[whatthe2]

I have been known to be a contrarian at times too but your comment that Tesla will soon be looking for Model 3 buyers is ridiculous. But keep digging that hole.

Agreed. I'm a 12/2/16 reservation holder and am still a long way down the list as far as I can tell.

 

[TT97]

I think the front brakes are fine for 17" wheels, the rear brakes are actually larger diameter. Would be silly to run different diameters front and rear though!

Yup, it was the rear that didn't fit. Here is the thread:

Rear wheel diameter min caliper clearance

 

[Todd Burch]

We will see how many reservation convert to sales. Elon seems to be very sensitive on talking about this.

Here's why (I'll make it simple so everyone can understand):

500,000 people sign up to buy a car that will be produced in red and black colors. The red is 20% more expensive than black, but a lot of people like red cars.

200,000 people want red, 300,000 want black.

Because the company makes more money with the red cars, and since they are ramping (when margins are worst), they decide to start out by making only red cars.

As they ask people to confirm their orders, those that want red go for it. Some that want black (say 50,000) choose red to get theirs earlier, but most defer to wait until black cars are made.

This makes it APPEAR as though the reservation conversion rate is only 50% (200k red people + 50k black). Some might conclude that half of the reservations are getting cancelled! But in reality those people are just waiting for a different color.

This is why order conversion rate is a meaningless thing to discuss right now, and why Elon derided the moronic analyst that posed the question.

 

[dhanson865]

I might be part of a small minority on this one but one of the few gripes I have with the Model 3 is the big wheels. Tires will be a significant part of the running costs. Yes, large rims improve handling in dry weather when you're driving on the limit and you may argue they look good. But it comes at the expense of decreased comfort, poorer handling in wet conditions, much lower efficiency (due to increased drag and higher rolling resistance) higher tire wear, higher suspension wear and significantly more expensive tires. That's not a favorable trade-off for a lot of people. That's why I would have much preferred a smaller 15" or 16" wheel on an EV for the masses. Between 18" aero and 19" sport the aero wheels are a no-brainer for me. I even prefer the look.

The brake calipers/discs limit the smallest wheel size. I agree it would be better for them to focus on a smaller size, but I think 17" would be as small as they could push it and that would require smaller brake components.

I'm running 15" on my daily driver and have the stock 16" on the alternate. I'd love to put 17" on the Model 3 but I'll be OK with 18" and the aero covers.