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Production Ramp Speculation

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by EMP40, Apr 26, 2016.

  1. EMP40

    EMP40 Member

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    What are the educated, and maybe random, guess-timations on the ramp schedule. My reservation is about half way in the approx. 700 who waited in line in Rocklin. I figure maybe a few thousand in 2017, 5-10 thousand in Q1 2018 all existing owners. Q2 and Q3 maybe 1,000 to 1,500 per week. If I am about 30-40 thousand back in the 115K that ordered before the reveal I guess I get the car Sept. Oct. of 2018.

    What do you think the ramp up looks like?
     
  2. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    There is a group that is trying to run an algorithm to estimate ramp. They want your full reservation number. Some here have said "don't ever release that number". I entered that site, and I expected them to say essentially what you said (I should be in the second half of the first 115000). But instead they said I'd be in the 400000 group. Maybe I got scammed, maybe my optimism does not hold water.
    But - what I'm fairly sure of is that the general public has no clue as to the changes in the ramp schedule and we can at best guess.
     
  3. Bounou

    Bounou Member

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    It's difficult to imagine Tesla not Doing everything to move up the ramp in light of the interest they have received so far, I would expect the criticism they would get if the person who orders a car 4 days after the reveal is expected to wait till 2020 to take delivery would be pretty crazy.

    Having said that getting the batteries to make the price for this thing entirely relies on the gigafactory being able to produce cheaply at scale, maybe moving up the timeframe is just not possible...
     
  4. DAMON F

    DAMON F New Member

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    I totally agree with your est.
     
  5. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    If you listen to Elon on the earnings call he would tell you your estimate for delivery is late. He said if you want your car in 2018 you should still place your order now. If ramp up goes according to plan, and I know that's a big IF, you would see your car much earlier than that with a position in line like that.
     
  6. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    In the Q1 2016 Earnings Call yesterday, Elon was very clear that his goal is to produce 100K to 200K Model 3's by the end of 2017.

    He said the design is very close to being finalized, inside and out, so they can begin to produce the necessary tooling and finish that process 9 months from now.

    Now factor in that the first cars will go to Tesla employees who have made a reservation (several thousand, I assume), and then that current Tesla owners have priority and those on the west coast of the US have priority.

    Now make your guess...
     
  7. badbot

    badbot Member

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    OK, I'm reading tea leaves between the lines so take this with a 25lb salt lick.

    EM seems to be targeting 100,000 to 200,000 in 2017.
    sounds like everyone (155,000) who waited in line will be HAPPY.

    and 2018 500,000 sounds like everyone else gets HAPPY in 2018.

    I hope everything hits the goal. I want to see what happens if they nail it. It might just go ballistic! the stock price might go as well. income might exceed costs by 2 or 3 times, debt now is under 2b and should be under 4b income of 15b gross I would hope be over 3.9 net
     
  8. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    4 Fremont production lines at 1000/week each. That's 100 cars per 10-hour shift x 2 shifts x 5 days/week per line. 50 hours/week per production line employee for a little overtime income and everybody's happy.

    There's 200,000 cars/year right there. Done. Finis. Et voila. Easy peasy. All kinds of variables to tweak for higher output.

    Next question? :)
     
  9. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    yeah but.....assembly line is not the entire issue. getting parts also factors. if giga factory can't supply battery then Fremont can not finish product regardless of overtime.
     
  10. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    Sure - as Elon said, you can't build cars with 99% of the parts.

    So with the parts as planned, and with a factory that has already produced 500,000 units/year with yesteryear's technology and the headaches of union labor, it does not seem completely fanciful to achieve 200,000 units/year as noted above in a modern factory and an us versus the world mentality.

    Because it makes more sense to have factories and gigafactories on the same continents as respective demand, and heaven forbid to have 2 factories on the same continent at some point (Helloooooo Alabama), maybe Fremont doesn't need to get much past 200-250K units/year. Hard to say yet, and hard to believe that factory ever did 10,000 cars a week. That's just staggering when you look at the layout.

    Happily, if GM/Toyota could manage the supply chain for that, then there's at least a chance Tesla can do it again.

    They're going to need bigger trams for the tours.
     
  11. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Genesis - The Beginning - MS60D in its nest

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    just to be devils advocate...was the auto industry threatened by Toyota/GM? Could they have had more supporters and fewer enemies?
     

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