Production ramping - will Supercharger installations keep up?

[zannman]

We seem to have made it through the holidays in the US without huge queues becoming a problem this year.

With the production ramp and price cuts on all Tesla models, what are the chances that once lonely superchargers become quickly overcrowded? Before the end of the year push we already had more than double the Tesla's on the road than at the start of 2021. There certainly aren't double the amount of supercharger stalls, at least in the areas I frequent.

Will we see the effects of rapid growth of cars for Memorial Day this year?

 

[theothertom]

There was a 31% increase in superchargers from Dec 31 2021 to Dec 31 2022. So they are growing at a fast pace.

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info

 

[MY1stEV]

If you'd like to have some small voice in future supercharging locations, Tesla is doing voting once a quarter on where to open new locations. You can vote here...

Supercharger Voting | Tesla

You'll need to sign in with your Tesla login because they do enforce the 5 votes per person per quarter.

 

[MP3Mike]

We seem to have made it through the holidays in the US without huge queues becoming a problem this year.

With the production ramp and price cuts on all Tesla models, what are the chances that once lonely superchargers become quickly overcrowded? Before the end of the year push we already had more than double the Tesla's on the road than at the start of 2021. There certainly aren't double the amount of supercharger stalls, at least in the areas I frequent.

Will we see the effects of rapid growth of cars for Memorial Day this year?

Not everyone uses the Superchargers on a regular basis, so the network doesn't have to expand at the same rate as vehicles.

 

[RayK]

What he said ^^^

I don't see the increase of vehicle production directly driving a corresponding increase in Supercharging slots. After all, Superchargers are supposed to be for distance driving, despite my own reliance on L3 chargers for day-to-day (read: local) trips. Assuming that Tesla sells all of the "new" production capacity, not every one of those vehicles are going to need a Supercharger.

 

[johnnycnote]

I've used SC 3 times since I got my M3 last July. I wake up every morning with approx. 300 miles in the tank. While the network needs to expand, I agree that it might not need to expand as quickly as we think. Unless Tesla opens up the network to non-Tesla vehicles. Then yeah, we'll need loads because every other charging network is pretty bad

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It's a good question.

Kinda depends on who buys all these new millions of Teslas. If it's mostly folks with a 3 bedroom house and a 2 car garage, I think the SC network can handle the increased (rare) long distance travel load.

If people who live in apartments with no way to charge at "home" buy them, yeah we're in for some pain.

 

[MP3Mike]

Unless Tesla opens up the network to non-Tesla vehicles. Then yeah, we'll need loads because every other charging network is pretty bad

Yeah, because there are so many of them...

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Yeah, because there are so many of them...

In my relatively small town, there are 4 major supercharger stations in the range of 8 to 18 stalls, every single one is working. They are clean, well located, and delightful.

I'm aware of I think a half dozen off-brand charging stations. I have never seen all the chargers actually in a working condition at any of them, and several of them are just 2 to 4 stalls at the back of a neglected bank or supermarket.

There is NO comparison for charging infrastructure.

 

[theothertom]

If it's mostly folks with a 3 bedroom house and a 2 car garage, I think the SC network can handle the increased (rare) long distance travel load.

I agree most people will charge at home most of the time. But during the summer travel season, or winter holidays, the network can get busy. I think Tesla realizes this and is responding.

 

[beatle]

Supercharging and other DCFC stations seem to clump up in cities. Highway expansion is much less by comparison.

As someone who charges at home, I can count on one hand the number of times I've charged at a supercharger inside a major metropolitan area. I use destination charging (hotels, family members) when I leave town, and really just supercharge while on the open road.

Seems like both Tesla and the 3rd party charging companies are gearing up and see higher demand for EVs owned by people who do not have charging at home and are deploying charging stations for their use.

 

[johnnycnote]

Yeah, because there are so many of them...

There are enough for right now, at least here in the NYC Metro area and it's suburbs. Plenty of open stalls every time I drive past one and never seen waiting lines

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm aware of I think a half dozen off-brand charging stations. I have never seen all the chargers actually in a working condition at any of them, and several of them are just 2 to 4 stalls at the back of a neglected bank or supermarket.

There is NO comparison for charging infrastructure.

There are enough for right now, at least here in the NYC Metro area and it's suburbs. Plenty of open stalls every time I drive past one and never seen waiting lines

You both missed my point. My point was that there aren't very many non-Tesla EVs in North America, because the competition just doesn't have any volume. And probably won't for a while.

 

[johnnycnote]

You both missed my point. My point was that there aren't very many non-Tesla EVs in North America, because the competition just doesn't have any volume. And probably won't for a while.

Ah... I understood the opposite

 

[israndy]

My biggest concern is the lack of intermediate Superchargers, we can get most places with the current network, but it's annoying if you pass the last Supercharger and run into dramatic headwinds and rain there isn't always an intermediate station you can fall back to, your choice is trudge on and hope you make it or turn around and go back to the one half an hour or more behind you. Looking forward to more discreet stations not just mega-stations every 150 miles, give me 8 stall chargers every 25 miles instead.

Oh, and bring back the Urban Superchargers, and fill out the urban maps with them. I imagine they are better for your battery if you always have to Supercharge. We have one 12 stall v2 Supercharger in town, but we have two shopping malls at either end of the island. V2 charges too fast for any real shopping time, would prefer if we had two 6 or more stall Urbans, one at each mall instead.

I guess we'll get there eventually.

 

[Earl]

My biggest concern is the lack of intermediate Superchargers, we can get most places with the current network, but it's annoying if you pass the last Supercharger and run into dramatic headwinds and rain there isn't always an intermediate station you can fall back to, your choice is trudge on and hope you make it or turn around and go back to the one half an hour or more behind you. Looking forward to more discreet stations not just mega-stations every 150 miles, give me 8 stall chargers every 25 miles instead.

Oh, and bring back the Urban Superchargers, and fill out the urban maps with them. I imagine they are better for your battery if you always have to Supercharge. We have one 12 stall v2 Supercharger in town, but we have two shopping malls at either end of the island. V2 charges too fast for any real shopping time, would prefer if we had two 6 or more stall Urbans, one at each mall instead.

I guess we'll get there eventually.

I agree. Even 25 - 40 kW is be sufficient for mall shopping or eating a meal.

 

[Tronguy]

For what it's worth: Tesla has, multiple times, stated that they don't want to use the Supercharger network as a profit center. Self-sustaining, yes, but not a profit center.

Hence, the money one pays for Supercharging is going into three things:

• Electricity
• Maintenance
• More Superchargers.

Not rocket science. But consider what happens as the SC network gets larger and larger, especially as Tesla hasn't been raising the rates faster than inflation or the cost of electricity: There's going to be more and more money to put in more and more Superchargers.

The economics says: The more Teslas there are (and other cars, eventually, of course) the more money is going to be around to put in more Superchargers.

Note: Other networks have the Profit Motive. They want to return money to their shareholders, the CEOs, and all those C-suite people, and especially to any lenders or venture capitalists floating around. What this means: If they're trying to keep up with Tesla, well, they can't skip on electricity, but they sure can (and apparently do) skimp on Maintenance and More Chargers.

Sometimes is pays when one is the Big Wahoonie in a market.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I agree. Even 25 - 40 kW is be sufficient for mall shopping or eating a meal.

I actually like the older-gen ~70 kW chargers since they run about the right amount of time for a meal, and I imagine they might be slightly easier on the battery pack than 250 kW max speed charging

 

[israndy]

I agree. Even 25 - 40 kW is be sufficient for mall shopping or eating a meal.

So ChargePoint speeds

 

[israndy]

I imagine they might be slightly easier on the battery pack than 250 kW max speed charging

I would love to see a study. I have a display in my car that shows coolant loop temps so I can see that during a 50kW charge my car will get to about 130°F before the fans kick in, and at the 250kW chargers it gets to about 144°, but the fans go CRAZY (6000 RPM), if and when they turn on, at the 250kW sites. If the charge cycle is short enough (say 50-75%) the fans will never kick in because the batts don't have enough time to heat up.

They don't turn on, that is, until I leave the charger. Every DCFC that provides significant kWhs will cause the fan to run as you drive away from the charger, this is because there is one temp good for charging and one for not charging, typically below 120°, so if the air pushed thru the radiator by driving isn't enough to rapidly cool the car back to ~120° after charging then the fans will kick in, just not as crazy as while 250kW charging.