Production Timing

[SageBrush]

Admittedly naive in these matters, I cannot help be amazed at how far along the car seems to be. Then when I remember that Tesla brought the 'X' to market concurrently, I give up.

Anyway, back to my question: is 18 months a realistic schedule from the car we saw yesterday to mass production ? Is the rate limiting step going to be the Fremont or battery factory, rather than the car ? It sure looked that way to me.

 

[Dithermaster]

Cars go from full scale Concept to Production Intent to Production. A lot of time goes in between each step since cars are complex, and creating assembly lines is also complex. From comments made by Tesla employees at the unveil (and posted to the Internet; I was not there), it sounds like they are late in the Concept stage and getting close to Production Intent; but then again, the employees speaking might not fully understand what PE really means specifically and these might just be Concept prototypes.

 

[nightfly]

The production numbers will be lower than estimated, initially. Expect late 2018 if they start production in late 2017, for production to ramp up to the level of 60K units/yr.

Unless your a current Tesla owner (i.e. purchased a Tesla from them, not a used model), employee or similarly connected consumer or buy a mid-priced or above trimmed out model and live on the west coast, you won't see availability till 2019 at the earliest.

Yes, production will increase in 2019, but not double.

If you are planning on buying the base model or something close to it, you likely won't have availability till 2020 outside the west coast, specifically California.

Don't expect new plants to come online - there's nothing even being discussed. If they start discussing new plants tomorrow, it's still 2-3 yrs out best case before the plant would be ready. Closer to 4-6 years in reality.

Based upon projections I've seen on current model production/sales; the Fed rebate will start phasing out in early 2019 - few Model 3's will be able to get the full rebate. Really only those first 40-60K. Best case there is maybe 100K units that will qualify, but I just don't see it. With already 67K qualifying units sold to date and another ~120K slated to be sold in 2016-2017 before you even see one Model 3 roll of the line. The lack of the full rebate or any rebate pass 2019 will impact sales some.

I expect the larger issue with turning reservations into sales is the practically of owning and driving an EV. I currently drive one and have for a few years and it's not for everyone. Recharging hassles and infrastructure, even for home owners, is non-trivial

With that all said, if trends hold, of the current 232K units reserved, ~50% are from over-seas. Of those, there is likely going to be only roughly 60% actually commit to purchasing. This isn't like the Model S or X. There's probably a lot of reservations from folks who are not really serious and even some who can't really afford one.

So of the 120K units projected to reserved in the US, it will take 2 years to produce these units.

BTW, the price will go up. My guess to around 38K. Factor in higher loan rates in 2018 (I expect 4 yr rates to hit 4-5% then), the every mans Tesla may not be affordable by every man with a reservation.