Profound progress towards FSD

[mikes_fsd]

Not quite "solved". Elon wrote: "It’s almost working reliably"

What a joke!

Dude, at this point nothing - short of a Lidar - Tesla or Elon can release would satisfy you!

What part is the joke?
That a WIP feature that over a million cars could have access to is almost working reliably?
A feature that no end-user can get from any other manufacturer.
A feature that you can only try out elsewhere, by traveling to a desert town, applying for approval to ride and hoping the the "gods of letters" will allow you to try?

Is that the joke?

 

[mikes_fsd]

If Tesla was close to L5, we would be seeing impressive demos of the car self-driving on busy city streets but we don't because Tesla can't do it yet. By Elon's own admission, they don't even have "turning at intersections" done yet. This is something everybody else has already solved by now. Tesla is far behind in L5.

Here we are back again to impressive demos.

Was the autonomy day video a demonstration of L3/L4?

 

[mikes_fsd]

Not quite "solved". Elon wrote: "It’s almost working reliably"

What a joke! This is a feature that everybody has already solved by now and Tesla still has not finished it yet.

You sound more arrogant than George Hotz ... and that says a lot.

Damn, I must have missed the FSD cars in Charlotte or Atlanta or Maimi.

Your definition of "solved" needs to be reviewed. Just because you saw it in a pretty video does not make it solved.

 

[diplomat33]

Dude, at this point nothing - short of a Lidar - Tesla or Elon can release would satisfy you!

Not true. If my Model 3 could do a full trip with no driver intervention, I would be satisfied.

What part is the joke?
That a WIP feature that over a million cars could have access to is almost working reliably?
A feature that no end-user can get from any other manufacturer.
A feature that you can only try out elsewhere, by traveling to a desert town, applying for approval to ride and hoping the the "gods of letters" will allow you to try?

Is that the joke?

The joke is that "turning at intersections" is still a WIP when everybody else has already solved it.

 

[mikes_fsd]

when everybody else has already solved it.

I have an FSD stack to sell you.
ALL major issues solved, I even have the videos to prove it.

 

[diplomat33]

Here we are back again to impressive demos.

Was the autonomy day video a demonstration of L3/L4?

Because demos show what the car can do. The FSD demos by other companies show that their cars can do more than Tesla.

Tesla says that the autonomy day video was L3. So yes, Tesla demonstrated L3 for 12 miles. WOW! What an accomplishment!

 

[mikes_fsd]

demos show what the car can do.

Demos show you what the presenter wants you to see.
Remember that, next time you are making any purchase, including Tesla.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Tesla demonstrated L3 for 12 miles

So you want to classify the video as L3, that is fine, I just wanted to know where you stand.

Is there anything in SAE that says you have to have more than 12 miles to claim a certain level of FSD?
(hint, there isn't)

 

[BestRadar]

I'm still waiting for my car to do what it was promised it would do 4 years ago when I purchased it. Cant wait to pull up at the mall front entrance and have my car go and park itself.

 

[diplomat33]

Demos show you what the presenter wants you to see.
Remember that, next time you are making any purchase, including Tesla.

Very true. But if one demo shows the car driving on busy city streets, handling intersections, construction zones, pedestrians etc... for an entire hour with no driver in the seat and another demo shows the car making a few simple turns and merging onto a mostly empty highway and driving for 10 miles, what does that tell you about their respective FSD?

 

[mikes_fsd]

The joke is that "turning at intersections" is still a WIP when everybody else has already solved it.

I beg of you, please show me where I can try out - at will - these marvelous features that you keep claiming are solved.
I am truly searching to have my eyes opened to what you see.

ps remember that Google has still not approved me to try out Waymo One. but I keep checking every day.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I'm still waiting for my car to do what it was promised it would do 4 years ago when I purchased it. Cant wait to pull up at the mall front entrance and have my car go and park itself.

View attachment 580492

Me too!
And that is a rational request/demand/desire.

 

[mikes_fsd]

what does that tell you about their respective FSD?

It tells me you love demos more than reality.
All of those demos sold me an idea, not a product.
The only one that comes close to making that idea a reality (product), for me, is Tesla.
Because I see the steady release (even if too slow for my tastes) of features that I can use, and see "hey, they are getting closer" or "dang, they still got a while to go on this feature".

 

[diplomat33]

So you want to classify the video as L3, that is fine, I just wanted to know where you stand.

Tesla Rep classified it as L3, not me. I am just going with what Tesla said about the demo.

Is there anything in SAE that says you have to have more than 12 miles to claim a certain level of FSD?
(hint, there isn't)

No, you don't need a certain number of miles to claim a level of FSD. Miles have nothing to do with what level it is. However, miles do say something about reliability. The more miles you can go with no intervention, the more reliable your system is. It is easier to do a level of autonomy for 12 miles with no intervention than say 1000 miles with no intervention. That is why I criticize Tesla's 12 mile demo because it is very short compared to what other companies have shown. Mobileye showed an unedited demo of over 20 minutes of city driving. Cruise has shown a full hour of city driving.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Mobileye showed an unedited demo of over 20 minutes of city driving. Cruise has shown a full hour of city driving.

How many times do you think that both rode that route before they got the video you saw?
How many man-hours did they spend massaging the HD maps to get the car to behave properly for the video you saw?

 

[diplomat33]

It tells me you love demos more than reality.
All of those demos sold me an idea, not a product.
The only one that comes close to making that idea a reality (product), for me, is Tesla.
Because I see the steady release (even if too slow for my tastes) of features that I can use, and see "hey, they are getting closer" or "dang, they still got a while to go on this feature".

Demos show a piece of reality. What can the product actually do? The demos tell me that Waymo Cruise, Mobileye can handle complicated city driving with no human input for hours. Tesla's demos tell me that Tesla can do simple turns and drive on highways with no human input for about 12 miles.

 

[mikes_fsd]

For the record, miles do matter, miles without accident, miles without disengagement.
I am not dismissing those at all.
I am dismissing pretty demo videos because you have no idea what it took to get that final video.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Demos show a piece of reality. What can the product actually do?

I need to take you on a few Conference Room Pilot (CRP) - demo of industrial software solution in my case.
Then I would like you to sit through the engineering meetings afterwards to see the reality of what was sold in the CRP and how to make that a reality.
To the folks "across the table" it all looks like smooth sailing and "everything is there".
Demos == what the customer hopes to see and what you can show best without falling on your face.

 

[diplomat33]

I am dismissing pretty demo videos because you have no idea what it took to get that final video.

How many times do you think that both rode that route before they got the video you saw?
How many man-hours did they spend massaging the HD maps to get the car to behave properly for the video you saw?

Total fair point. But let's apply your skepticism to both sides. What did it take for Tesla to do their Autonomy Day demo? Maybe Tesla tried the route a dozen times with the AP nags on and tweeked the software and the route and only filmed the drive "hands-free" when they finally got the 12 miles to work perfectly? The fact that a year and half later, Elon says that they have not quite got "turning at intersections" reliable yet, would suggest that the Autonomy Day demo was carefully crafted to only show the best.

When I say that Waymo, Cruise and others have FSD, I am not saying it because I like their pretty demos and I believe their demos over Tesla's demos. They have evidence beyond just demos that their FSD is reliable.

 

[diplomat33]

Your definition of "solved" needs to be reviewed. Just because you saw it in a pretty video does not make it solved.

Cruise robotaxis successfully do 1,400 unprotected left turns per day in SF with no driver intervention. If it is not solved, it's pretty close.

This is just a small sample of the kinds of turns at intersections that Cruise robotaxis can do reliably already:

Elon says "automated turns at intersections" is almost reliable.

Do you understand why I say Tesla is behind? Tesla is trying to get "automated turns" to be reliable. Other companies are doing thousands of unprotected left turns reliably per day!