I tried to summarize all of the posts here (that I agree with) on my blog.
Project Better Place is going to be a financial train wreck « Peak Oil Garage
Project Better Place is going to be a financial train wreck « Peak Oil Garage
Project Better Place
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Anyone know the ratio? How many battery swap stations per charge stations? I'm thinking something like 50 battery swap stations per 1000 chargers.
Put most of them at the edges of town along highways and a few in very visible locations in the center of the cities. After all they are mostly for show until people realize hey don't need them.
I'm not saying that these issues can't be worked out, just that everything is not just as simple as a car pulling into a garage and a robot taking care of everything. There are logistics that need to be to be dealt with. They aren't impossible, but they shouldn't just be ignored either.
Still, shipping electrons through a wire as needed sure sounds like an improvement over shipping gasoline in a tanker or shipping batteries on a truck.
AutoBlogGreen just wrote about our Project Better Place discussions here on TeslaMotorsClub.com
Thinking through the Better Place strategy: is it seriously flawed?
They referenced my summary on my website at PeakOilGarage.com
Project Better Place is going to be a financial train wreck « Peak Oil Garage
I had a few people in the discussion debating it.
But I also wrote that it was a summary of my thoughts and those of others from this thread on TMC.com.
Thinking through the Better Place strategy: is it seriously flawed?
They referenced my summary on my website at PeakOilGarage.com
Project Better Place is going to be a financial train wreck « Peak Oil Garage
I had a few people in the discussion debating it.
But I also wrote that it was a summary of my thoughts and those of others from this thread on TMC.com.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Constructing extra battery packs, shipping them back and forth to swap stations, building complex machinery to swap them, adding complexity to vehicles to make packs swappable, and adding a profit margin to PBP, all go a along way to increasing the cost of electric Fuel.
Why would you ever need a swapping infrastructure, or even a fast charging infrastructure, in a small place like Hawaii? The longest dimension of the largest island is 93 miles. The smaller places such as Hawaii and Israel where this is being pushed are the last places you'd need swapping, it makes no sense at all.
That is an excellent point. Current battery range can already make battery swapping pointless in Israel, Denmark and Hawaii. Imagine how useless those swap stations will be in five years when battery range has doubled.
Right now I am getting new LiFePO4 batteries to test from ThunderSky.
They are claiming their new 190 Ah batteries are the same physical dimensions as the older 160 Ah batteries.
That is almost a 19% improvement in energy density in just one quick jump.
Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
I still think PBP will find customers for their plan and will at least in certain limited places succeed. If they will financially survive and pay back their investors is anybodies guess. If you ask me I'd say in the long run not likely.
The swap stations and the quick recharge stations isn't really the important bit. The obiquitous slow chargers in EVERY parking space IS. The swap stations will be a PR measure just like the Corvette is a PR measure for GM and the Roadster in many ways is for Tesla. It's a way to make some of their R&D pay.
It also seems many people here are to economically sensible to see the draw of the PBP model. They use the cellphone model as their comparison and we still sell lots of cellphones here in Norway for $.25. If you do total the costs they are still essentially $200 phones for a $1500 price. Same thing goes for buying big things on credit. I'm pretty sure around 95% of all current Roadster buyers didn't have to get a carloan to pay for the car, that's not how it works for most people. So they are used to paying a higher price for a car, and they may be living in an apartment where using the PBP slowcharger outside on the curb sounds like a good idea. They get a new car, help the enviroment and end up paying about the same price as a similar petrol car.
Remember the Renault EV car in question is similar to the Megane if I recall correctly. A sensible small but decent compact car. For a 2-4 person family that can't afford a fancy car. That's a very different customer group than either Fisker or Tesla is going for. Looking at the price of the Roadster I'd bet V1 of the Bluestar will still be too expensive to hit that very price sensitive segment. A low entry price like PBP can offer might be all the incentive they need.
So I'm not saying this is the best solution for people, but for the EV "cause" widespread EV adoption has to be good. And even people that are good with their money (or somehow got their hand on a lot) does economically stupid things like buying a Ferrari
Cobos
The swap stations and the quick recharge stations isn't really the important bit. The obiquitous slow chargers in EVERY parking space IS. The swap stations will be a PR measure just like the Corvette is a PR measure for GM and the Roadster in many ways is for Tesla. It's a way to make some of their R&D pay.
It also seems many people here are to economically sensible to see the draw of the PBP model. They use the cellphone model as their comparison and we still sell lots of cellphones here in Norway for $.25. If you do total the costs they are still essentially $200 phones for a $1500 price. Same thing goes for buying big things on credit. I'm pretty sure around 95% of all current Roadster buyers didn't have to get a carloan to pay for the car, that's not how it works for most people. So they are used to paying a higher price for a car, and they may be living in an apartment where using the PBP slowcharger outside on the curb sounds like a good idea. They get a new car, help the enviroment and end up paying about the same price as a similar petrol car.
Remember the Renault EV car in question is similar to the Megane if I recall correctly. A sensible small but decent compact car. For a 2-4 person family that can't afford a fancy car. That's a very different customer group than either Fisker or Tesla is going for. Looking at the price of the Roadster I'd bet V1 of the Bluestar will still be too expensive to hit that very price sensitive segment. A low entry price like PBP can offer might be all the incentive they need.
So I'm not saying this is the best solution for people, but for the EV "cause" widespread EV adoption has to be good. And even people that are good with their money (or somehow got their hand on a lot) does economically stupid things like buying a Ferrari
Cobos
Project Better Place (PBP) sort of reminds me of @Home back during the early days of the cable model for the internet.
Think of @Home as the equivalent of Project Better Place.
Initially @Home knew all of the details on how to make the internet work over cable networks. But after a year or two, the cable companies realized that they actually did not need @Home to provide internet cable modem service to their customers. So they squeezed out @Home and took over the cable model business themselves.
Project Better Place is likely going to face the same future. The electric utilities are the real "power" behind the system. After everyone leans how an EV actually functions, they will realize that PBP doesn't really bring anything to the table. There is no value added.
EVs will get 100+ miles of range, recharge stations will become common and provided by many different companies with a common NEMA 14-50 outlet (or some other standard) and the electric utilities will power the system.
I don't really see a long term role for a middleman like PBP in the future. There is really no need after people learn how an EV actually works on a daily basis.
1) You drive it like a normal car.
2) You plug it in at home each night.
3) rinse, repeat
Project Better Place says they will own the batteries. If owning the batteries is the key to success and it is profitable, eventually the car manufacturers will figure out how to take that piece away from PBP. They will lease the batteries to EV owners.
Think of @Home as the equivalent of Project Better Place.
Initially @Home knew all of the details on how to make the internet work over cable networks. But after a year or two, the cable companies realized that they actually did not need @Home to provide internet cable modem service to their customers. So they squeezed out @Home and took over the cable model business themselves.
Project Better Place is likely going to face the same future. The electric utilities are the real "power" behind the system. After everyone leans how an EV actually functions, they will realize that PBP doesn't really bring anything to the table. There is no value added.
EVs will get 100+ miles of range, recharge stations will become common and provided by many different companies with a common NEMA 14-50 outlet (or some other standard) and the electric utilities will power the system.
I don't really see a long term role for a middleman like PBP in the future. There is really no need after people learn how an EV actually works on a daily basis.
1) You drive it like a normal car.
2) You plug it in at home each night.
3) rinse, repeat
Project Better Place says they will own the batteries. If owning the batteries is the key to success and it is profitable, eventually the car manufacturers will figure out how to take that piece away from PBP. They will lease the batteries to EV owners.
Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Well I know that, you, James knows that, but fortunately the PBP investors don't know that yet.
If they will be willing to invest a few hundred million $ in getting people used to using EVs who am I to stop them?
And to go back to the cellphone example. When the $.25 cellphones first arrived they were the catalyst for cellphones moving from something a businessman had to an everyday item. (Curiously Norway now has about 9mill cell phone subscriptions and only about 5 mill people.) The heavily discounted phones are a lot less normal today than they were then, but you still see them. And that's my prediction for PBP, they will grow big, and then they will shrink to a niche player, but their huge investment in the actual chargers means they will be able to lease or rent those to other companies. Like utilities.
The main point being regardless of what happens to PBP the endresult is a lot more EVs and a lot more public chargers.
Cobos
If they will be willing to invest a few hundred million $ in getting people used to using EVs who am I to stop them?
And to go back to the cellphone example. When the $.25 cellphones first arrived they were the catalyst for cellphones moving from something a businessman had to an everyday item. (Curiously Norway now has about 9mill cell phone subscriptions and only about 5 mill people.) The heavily discounted phones are a lot less normal today than they were then, but you still see them. And that's my prediction for PBP, they will grow big, and then they will shrink to a niche player, but their huge investment in the actual chargers means they will be able to lease or rent those to other companies. Like utilities.
The main point being regardless of what happens to PBP the endresult is a lot more EVs and a lot more public chargers.
Cobos
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The thing that most concerns me about PBP is that manufacturers may be fooled into thinking they need to spend extra time and money making a swappable battery pack which will drive the cost of EV's up, not down. I doubt that will actually happen, but even Tesla is talking about swappable packs. It's an unnecessary engineering challenge, and limits battery pack innovation once you've locked into a certain physical specification. I'm not concerned with PBP investors losing their money, that's on them, I'm concerned about PBP influencing EV design and construction in negative ways.
Their charge station idea is less problematic in my view, but as has been pointed out they will simply be a middle man adding little value and will probably be pushed out in the long run. A smart business or apartment owner will install their own charging stations, a one time expense with some routine maintenance thrown in, and generate business and profits for themselves by having them.
Their charge station idea is less problematic in my view, but as has been pointed out they will simply be a middle man adding little value and will probably be pushed out in the long run. A smart business or apartment owner will install their own charging stations, a one time expense with some routine maintenance thrown in, and generate business and profits for themselves by having them.
WarpedOne
Supreme Premier
My sole fear is PBP will influence EV makers into making on-board chargers non-compatible with home electric installation to force people to charge from their charging stations i.e. that they will try to be the Oil Company of 21st century except from really pumping out any oil.
I see another danger in that governments might like this model because then they will be able to add additional fees to "automotive" electricity like they do now with automotive energents.
Diesel here in our country costs twice as much as ordinary oil for heating houses. They are the same thing except that oil has some added chemical that colors it red so government can fine me big money if I put it into my diesel car. That Tesla's 480V DC outboard charger might be a very dangerous idea from this point of view.
The only really new thing that EVs bring to the table is energy provider independence. PBP is capable of taking it away again.
I see another danger in that governments might like this model because then they will be able to add additional fees to "automotive" electricity like they do now with automotive energents.
Diesel here in our country costs twice as much as ordinary oil for heating houses. They are the same thing except that oil has some added chemical that colors it red so government can fine me big money if I put it into my diesel car. That Tesla's 480V DC outboard charger might be a very dangerous idea from this point of view.
The only really new thing that EVs bring to the table is energy provider independence. PBP is capable of taking it away again.
Some great observations here suggesting that PBP will be pushed out of the equation as power companies realize they can go direct to consumer to supply driver's needs. The need for charging will also be filled by and existing land owners and entrepreneurs branding charging lots like a combination gasoline station and paid parking lot -maybe every spot has a charger and you pay when you exit. That way the owner makes extra $$ when and ICE car parks there! Branded Coulomb-type pay charge kiosks may also be offered by independent companies licensing spots from municipalities and prime land owners. "I always use those WhizBang chargers because I like their funny commercials and are .02 cents less per mile than parking in the charge lot closer to work".
We will see the same with 3rd party battery suppliers as well. Especially when cars are retired form the PBP "fleet" Even a companies like Tesla or Zenn might make batteries for competitor's cars.
graham
Active Member
While I am skeptical of PBP, I still do not believe it is as simple as James seems to. Although his @Home comparison does ring true to me and reminds me of DVRs.
When I bought a DVR in the late '90s, I could buy the high quality, high feature set ReplayTV, or the far less capable and "less expensive" Tivo. The ReplayTV you paid for outright at $600, the Tivo was $300 but there was a something like a $12 monthly fee. The Tivo picture quality/compression was worse, you didn't have a network jack built in so that you could not back up your hard drive every night etc and ultimately you would pay at least as much if not more for the Tivo. Overwhelmingly, people who bought DVRs bought Tivo.
Then a decade later when the masses finally figured out what a DVR is, the cable companies realized that a DVR is not too difficult to make (user interface be damned). Most people who get them these days would rather get them for "free" and pay their cable company $10/month for the privilege. Ultimately paying more for a product that is not nearly as easy or nice to use, but starting out, it is less expensive.
I am on the sideline saying "But my DVR is better!... and... and... I paid it off in 1997... Network backup!..."
People would rather buy an expensive item for cheap today and pay a monthly fee forever. It is a reasonable business plan, but as James mentions with his @Home comparison probably doomed to the utilities in the end.
When I bought a DVR in the late '90s, I could buy the high quality, high feature set ReplayTV, or the far less capable and "less expensive" Tivo. The ReplayTV you paid for outright at $600, the Tivo was $300 but there was a something like a $12 monthly fee. The Tivo picture quality/compression was worse, you didn't have a network jack built in so that you could not back up your hard drive every night etc and ultimately you would pay at least as much if not more for the Tivo. Overwhelmingly, people who bought DVRs bought Tivo.
Then a decade later when the masses finally figured out what a DVR is, the cable companies realized that a DVR is not too difficult to make (user interface be damned). Most people who get them these days would rather get them for "free" and pay their cable company $10/month for the privilege. Ultimately paying more for a product that is not nearly as easy or nice to use, but starting out, it is less expensive.
I am on the sideline saying "But my DVR is better!... and... and... I paid it off in 1997... Network backup!..."
People would rather buy an expensive item for cheap today and pay a monthly fee forever. It is a reasonable business plan, but as James mentions with his @Home comparison probably doomed to the utilities in the end.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
But what if that more expensive Replay got cheaper and better every year? Because that's what's happening with lithium batteries and it's happening quickly. So some people bought the better Replay at first, just as some people are now paying somewhat of a premium for lithium, but as time goes on the lithium is getting cheaper and better. It's a different model than the Replay/Tivo situation.
I look at it more as a Flat panel TV model. The first ones were very expensive and very few bought them, but over time they got cheaper and better and everyone can get them, and it happened pretty quickly.
I look at it more as a Flat panel TV model. The first ones were very expensive and very few bought them, but over time they got cheaper and better and everyone can get them, and it happened pretty quickly.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
- Dec 8, 2007
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The DVR situation is kind of different. There's basically no option for non-subscription DVRs ever since Tivo (I was looking for a DVR for a friend and the only other options were to get a DVD recorder or a TV tuner card, there are basically no nonsubscription DVRs avaliable). I don't expect PBP to lead to this kind of situation in the battery market, as long as there are still many automakers planning not to bother with the battery swapping at least initially.
TEG
Teslafanatic
- Aug 20, 2006
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I mostly agree with James' take on this, but I don't think NEMA 14-50 will be embraced as a standard for EV charging. PBP could well get into a 'situation' with contention for J1772 (in USA) and e-Mobility / RWE charge connections in Europe.
Yes, they have to convince the cities of what to subsidize/promote, as well as the auto makers of what to install in their vehicles. Perhaps something will emerge that will allow non PBP vehicles to get a PBP account and charge their vehicle at a PBP charge spot with some sort of adapter? What about a PBP vehicle that would like to charge at a non PBP public charger? Out of luck?
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TEG
Teslafanatic
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There is/was a very active TiVo modding community. People "hot rodded" their TiVos with bigger hard drives, and even add on ethernet interfaces to make them more replay TV like. Also there was the concept of one time fee for lifetime subscription, so it isn't always a montly fee based system. (Some hackers figured out how to avoid the subscription system altogether).
I abandoned all my old modded TiVo's and now just use a series 3 that has built in ethernet, lets me transfer shows to/from PCs at home, and even lets me schedule shows over the internet when I am away from home.
The series 3 has a supported eSATA port so I have an extra terrabyte drive hanging off the back.
I wonder what happens if someone buys a PBP car and mods it so it can recharge at non PBP chargers...? (!)
I abandoned all my old modded TiVo's and now just use a series 3 that has built in ethernet, lets me transfer shows to/from PCs at home, and even lets me schedule shows over the internet when I am away from home.
The series 3 has a supported eSATA port so I have an extra terrabyte drive hanging off the back.
I wonder what happens if someone buys a PBP car and mods it so it can recharge at non PBP chargers...? (!)
Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Letting everyone that doesn't have a PBP car use their charger network is an obvious extra source of revenue. You either prepay some amount of kW or you take out a subscription which gives you access.
The other way around though might not be such a problem. PBP is selling you x miles per year. They'll periodically read off your odometer I suppose and charge you based on that. That includes power from PBP chargepoints. If you still insist on using other power sources and still pay for each mile PBP should be happy to let you do that...
Cobos
The other way around though might not be such a problem. PBP is selling you x miles per year. They'll periodically read off your odometer I suppose and charge you based on that. That includes power from PBP chargepoints. If you still insist on using other power sources and still pay for each mile PBP should be happy to let you do that...
Cobos
TEG
Teslafanatic
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So it will always be based on per-mile usage? So there would be no difference in cost if you charged at home versus at a public charger? No difference in cost based on time of day you charged? No difference if you used a PBP official charger or used some adapter to use someone else's?
If it is per mile then efficiency doesn't matter either, right? The PBP car that does a 75MPH commute would get cheaper power than the other one that does a 40MPH commute. It wouldn't matter how many wH/mile you used.
No money incentive to avoid "lead foot" driving.
If it is per mile then efficiency doesn't matter either, right? The PBP car that does a 75MPH commute would get cheaper power than the other one that does a 40MPH commute. It wouldn't matter how many wH/mile you used.
No money incentive to avoid "lead foot" driving.
Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
I don't know of course, but if this was my network I would make sure the chargepoints offered Smart grid capability. That way customers can choose to set the car in "get-me-all-the-power-I-can-find"-mode or "only-charge-if-its-cheap"-mode. PBP will make sure to charge you for the first option, and will sell the second option as loadbalancing back to the utilities.
I suppose they could count kW put into the battery instead of miles and let you eat out of your "free miles" regardless of where you charge. kW though is less intuitive for the average user than miles...
Cobos
I suppose they could count kW put into the battery instead of miles and let you eat out of your "free miles" regardless of where you charge. kW though is less intuitive for the average user than miles...
Cobos
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