It seems to me this would only be possible if you standardized the shape of the car, also.
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Project Better Place
- Thread starter tonybelding
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It seems to me this would only be possible if you standardized the shape of the car, also.
I could see small groups of automakers (Audi, BMW and Mercedes) all agreeing on a common form factor but it wouldn't be successful in the US unless they could convince GM, Ford and Chrysler to also do it. Tesla will likely go their own way.
brianoflondon
Member
It's a simple question: will fixed battery 100 mile EV's sell in any kind of reasonable numbers that make big car companies interested (not the numbers Tesla can make) over the next 4 to 8 years? I reckon even if the battery / cost ratio improves by x2 the cars will still appear to be a little more expensive than gasoline (for people who don't understand how much nicer they are).
And when Better Place is in a market offering unlimited range EVs with a much lower upfront purchase cost (without waiting for a new battery to exist) will there be any significant uptake of the cheaper to run but more limited fixed battery cars?
BTW if anyone is in London next week, I'll be giving a very brief presentation as a Better Place customer to a Clean Tech Investors conference then hanging around all day. Renault are even lending me a Twizy to get there in. Stop by and say hi!
London: Investing In Future Transport | Israellycool
I don't doubt that the Better Place model works in certain areas just that anyone could get all the major players to agree on anything. They couldn't even agree on a common plug standard for EVs and that's a simple thing to tackle.
mgemmell
Scottish chap
Hmmm... ICE engines are similar shapes, but the cars they fit in are not. A flat block in the floor has even less impact on the body shape than an ICE engine and despite this unchanging lump is anyone willing to argue cars have not changed shape in 100 years? Any lack of competition as a result?
I do agree that forcing standardisation is generally a disaster, and so far the track record in EV standards is not awesome, but to deny that de-facto standards and industry consolidation around a common format for mutual benefit is to deny the reality of most advanced technologies we all enjoy.
Think PCs, WiFi, 3G, DVDs, Java, HTML, Visa cards, Intel CPUs, the ARM processor, DRAM, the light bulb ... In fact, the more money to be earned the quicker the consolidation (early PCs had a wide variety of CPUs, but now manufacturers don't waste time rethinking that decision, they just get on and build beautiful machines like the iMac).
Standards arise out of necessity and economic benefit. Many complex sub-systems in ICEs are manufactured by 3rd parties because they do them better than the car manufacturers (think Disk brakes, fuel injectors, engine management systems, ...). Manufacturers even share entire engines (our Opel has a Fiat turbo diesel, and many motors are common between EU manufacturers). Other collaborations are widespread but they still compete.
I just read today about Ford and GM collaborating on battery tech here. It is surely not a huge leap to imagine a business that is particularly good at making batteries becoming a key industry supplier and in the process simplifying the battery swap business. Is it not one of Tesla Motors business activities in fact? Couldn't we image Bosch for instance supplying several manufacturers with battery packs they didn't have the ability to build themselves?
In summary, de-facto battery packs do not restrict car shape any more than an ICE engine, and there are plenty of good economic reasons for manufacturers to delegate this hard task to specialists suppliers. Once they do that battery swapping becomes that bit easier.
Okay, so let's just drop that engine out of that Corvette and pop it in a Smart car, then.
Actually, most cars made in the last 100 years have the same basic three-box design left over from the days when horses pulled carriages. There are a few modern cars that are breaking the mold (such as the Prius), but they are in the minority.
brianoflondon
Member
And seeing as how I drag raced my MGF once against a 1929 Bentley with a Rolls Royce Merlin engine taken from a Spitfire, things are interchangeable. The rear only drum brakes on that monster could have used an upgrade.
mgemmell
Scottish chap
An extreme example does not negate that the engine is a more difficult lump to work around than a 3 inch slab in the floor.
My Opel may have the same engine as a Fiat but I'm not about to switch them over. That's a job for specialists because it wasn't designed to do that.
The point is that the battery does not condition the design of the car that much. The Model S and X share the same "skateboard" after all even though they are different classes of vehicle. Maybe there could be even more bodies that would exploit that base? And they would all have interchangeable batteries. Wow, how did that happen?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Try to use your Makita power drill with a DeWalt battery. Or try to use your 14V DeWalt drill with an 18V DeWalt battery. Sure they could easily all be interchangeable, yet they aren't.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Actually the example of recharge-able batteries for consumer electronics is a great one. The cells may actually be standardized in some cases (laptop cells basically), but the packs are not standardized because it benefits the manufacturer NOT to standardize it (it locks you into buying replacement packs from them and it allows them to customize the voltage and current capacity of the pack without needing the customer to deal with multiple separate standard cells).
Disposable batteries on the other hand are standardized because most manufacturers can't possibly produce and distribute a proprietary format widely enough to satisfy consumer demand.
At this point there's no benefit to standardizing battery packs (across manufacturers) because we have not settled on a specific chemistry yet and every manufacturer wants to get exclusive access to the best battery (it's a huge competitive advantage). When EVs become entirely common, we may see standardization (like the examples mgemmell gives out). However, at that point I expect the charging infrastructure to be so well established and battery tech to be mature enough that there is no need for battery swapping.
Side point: I think the engine sharing example is not an example of standardization, that's just parts sharing. You are merely using the same part (or a modified version). The size and specifications are not standardized such that you can buy a different part from a different manufacturer that meets those specs and is a drop in replacement.
Disposable batteries on the other hand are standardized because most manufacturers can't possibly produce and distribute a proprietary format widely enough to satisfy consumer demand.
At this point there's no benefit to standardizing battery packs (across manufacturers) because we have not settled on a specific chemistry yet and every manufacturer wants to get exclusive access to the best battery (it's a huge competitive advantage). When EVs become entirely common, we may see standardization (like the examples mgemmell gives out). However, at that point I expect the charging infrastructure to be so well established and battery tech to be mature enough that there is no need for battery swapping.
Side point: I think the engine sharing example is not an example of standardization, that's just parts sharing. You are merely using the same part (or a modified version). The size and specifications are not standardized such that you can buy a different part from a different manufacturer that meets those specs and is a drop in replacement.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Here's another reason why we will never see automobile battery standardization.
The incredibly mediocre J1772 plug here in the US took 9 years to get approved by the car makers and the regulators. Anything more than 5 years will see the benefits of swapping be replaced by cell improvements.
The incredibly mediocre J1772 plug here in the US took 9 years to get approved by the car makers and the regulators. Anything more than 5 years will see the benefits of swapping be replaced by cell improvements.
brianoflondon
Member
Shai Agassi tweeted a journey today. He started somewhere near Tel Aviv, drove up to the Lebanon border and Mt Hermon then down to Eilat. Just over 1000km in around 10 hours I think. His final tweet showed 1000km and a near 100% battery.
A couple of the switch stations in the south he used are not open for customers yet, but I suspect they will be within a week or two. We have 13 working right now I believe and I don't think he needed more than 1 or maybe 2 extra stations for the last part to Eilat.
Israel covered. Job done.
Twitter / sagassi: Driving around the whole of ...
Twitter / sagassi: Noon: tallest mountain in Israel, ...
Twitter / sagassi: 7:30 pm south most point in ...
Twitter / sagassi: 1,000 km, electric car, non-stop ...
A couple of the switch stations in the south he used are not open for customers yet, but I suspect they will be within a week or two. We have 13 working right now I believe and I don't think he needed more than 1 or maybe 2 extra stations for the last part to Eilat.
Israel covered. Job done.
Twitter / sagassi: Driving around the whole of ...
Twitter / sagassi: Noon: tallest mountain in Israel, ...
Twitter / sagassi: 7:30 pm south most point in ...
Twitter / sagassi: 1,000 km, electric car, non-stop ...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Non stop? Not quite. Frankly I'd be quite happy for a couple of fast charge stops on a trip like that. Color me unimpressed. :wink:
Adm
Active Member
Still a 1000km (620mi) trip in 10 hours. To do this with a Model S 40 kWh would require 6 hours of charging leaving 1000km of driving in 4 hours ... not quite sure Model S is up to it ...
I'll still chose Model S over the Renault Fluence as I would fly the 1000 km instead of torturing myself to drive 1000 km. The days when I actually enjoyed those drives are long gone.
I'll still chose Model S over the Renault Fluence as I would fly the 1000 km instead of torturing myself to drive 1000 km. The days when I actually enjoyed those drives are long gone.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
brianoflondon
Member
I went to bed too early. He didn't stay in Eilat, he just took a picture there. He went home too so his total was 1,150 km or 715 miles for the day. That was 22:54, first tweet was 05:51 so that was 15 hours. 76 kmh or 48 mph moving averages and with Israel's roads and traffic and human biology without NASA diapers I'd say it would be hard to do more.
No fast charging car could do that trip today or with anything on the horizon for the next few years.
Adm
Active Member
Not everybody can afford a $67k car... (or even $57k) and it will take more than minor advances in battery technology to bring prices down or make small battery packs accept that big a charge.
Not everybody has a driveway/garage. Street side charging is possible, but how far would you be willing to park away from your home to find a place to charge your car? What if you live in an apartment complex without a garage?
My point is that while BP is no alternative for you and me, I think there is a market for EV's for people who will not have easy access to chargers.
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