Wiki FSD’s Earliest Adopters Still Waiting

[azred]

Not super inspiring, but also not super surprising. I assume (hope?) they are working out details for figuring out a steady supply of cameras for us and working the software/firmware details out behind the scenes to ensure that when people get their new cameras the mothership actually knows what to do, as right now it appears to be an onion of a problem for Tesla.

An onion of a problem for Tesla? Do you believe we are even on the list of problems that engineers at Tesla are working to solve? If that was true, those of us who have received the cameras would have received more than blank stares when we asked about the next step to FSD Beta inclusion. I think the replacement of a few cameras was the “solution” to a few noisy tweets from social media influencers -- and that was the sole, minor problem from Tesla’s perspective. Twitterverse matters to Elon much more than a small number of customers.

 

[Saxman]

An onion of a problem for Tesla? Do you believe we are even on the list of problems that engineers at Tesla are working to solve? If that was true, those of us who have received the cameras would have received more than blank stares when we asked about the next step to FSD Beta inclusion. I think the replacement of a few cameras was the “solution” to a few noisy tweets from social media influencers -- and that was the sole, minor problem from Tesla’s perspective. Twitterverse matters to Elon much more than a small number of customers.

@azred

It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the real reason that us few lucky Camera Upgrade lottery winners, got stuck just before the FSD BETA Finish Line.

It's hard to believe that Tesla would think throwing us a Camera Bone, would temporarily satisfy us already incensed Early Adopters. For me, it's even more tortuous being "played" to think we'll be getting the Software Release, "soon".

For me, that is just throwing fuel on the fire.

 

[hybridbear]

To be fair the first invites were 11/8, that mileage should have been still applicable to that round.

There has been no invite rollouts after 11/8 from what we know so he means you missed that first invite even with such an impressive score.

Very true… we weren’t at a ”true” 100 with only 100 days, but the app rounded us up to 100. At that point we had 1 day of 98 with a bit over 100 miles & 2 days of 99 that were about 150 miles total. But apparently the score didn’t really matter since ppl who were opted out got the camera invite.

This is all incredibly frustrating. Especially for us since we twice considered selling our car. Back in September/October 2020 we considered selling it to order a new Y. We even listed it for sale & had a few offers that were below our minimum selling price. And then in December when it was a poorly kept secret that Tesla was going to announce an S refresh I suggested to my wife that we order a new S in order to get the refresh but at a discounted price. But in the end we decided against spending money since our 2016 S is paid for & has free unlimited supercharging, something no new car would have. A part of the decision was also the belief that our S was ready from a hardware perspective for FSD Beta. If I had known that we would be stuck on the outside it may have affected the decision of whether to spend money or not.

 

[azred]

@azred

It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the real reason that us few lucky Camera Upgrade lottery winners, got stuck just before the FSD BETA Finish Line.

It's hard to believe that Tesla would think throwing us a Camera Bone, would temporarily satisfy us already incensed Early Adopters. For me, it's even more tortuous being "played" to think we'll be getting the Software Release, "soon".

For me, that is just throwing fuel on the fire.

Yes, we are angry and puzzled but Elon’s Twitterverse “friends” are now quiet. They think the issue is solved. So from Musk’s perspective, the problem may be solved. This thread has also lost most of its steam, and understandably so. At this point I am assuming we may get FSD only when it it becomes a general release — or we may not ever get it.

I will add that my Model 3 FSD Beta participant seems like it may be years from making me millions as a Robotaxi. So who knows how many years it may be before City Streets is ready for general release anyway. It has been 13 months since the Beta opened and we aren’t close. My wife thinks I’m nuts to have the Beta on my daily driver car. It’s like a theme park ride.

 

[valem]

So who knows how many years it may be before City Streets is ready for general release anyway. It has been 13 months since the Beta opened and we aren’t close.

I haven't personally experienced FSD beta, so I can only speak from watching a huge amount of videos... and I think the progress it's making is staggering.

Also impressed from the glimpse of the "behind the scenes" from "AI day" and soon the Dojo chip will be coming online, which will accelerate the NN training exponentially.

With that said, who knows if/when our 16/17 models will ever have FSD

 

[valem]

Thanks for pushing that tweet Valerio! Something is holding us up from FSD beta and they should be forthcoming. I feel bad for the poor advisors at the service centers they always get stuck without answers. Worst case I have seen them make stuff up lol.

Thanks for making the video!

 

[Durwood101]

I am actually curious given the state of affairs with our particular cars, wondering when some of you might guess that FSD would be close to or ready for fleetwide release........i believe earlier someone said that this has been going on for over a year now, are we another year before this is ready?

 

[azred]

I haven't personally experienced FSD beta, so I can only speak from watching a huge amount of videos... and I think the progress it's making is staggering.

Also impressed from the glimpse of the "behind the scenes" from "AI day" and soon the Dojo chip will be coming online, which will accelerate the NN training exponentially.

With that said, who knows if/when our 16/17 models will ever have FSD

Staggering? Well everyone has an opinion and the YouTube stars have a monetary agenda to make sure they don’t lose their cash cows by excessive criticism. I have no such monetary stake. Here’s a glimpse from 30 minutes ago:

This morning I took my 3 to the doctor 20 miles away. Light traffic and all six-lane city streets, mostly with an island divider. In other words, my route this morning was an easy place to take your 15 year old with a fresh learner’s permit to practice — and he/she likely would have done well. My 3? Not so much.

I probably intervened at least a dozen times for all sorts of issues. The last time I gave up and drove the car myself. Why? Well, I was cruising along at 45 mph speed limit in the middle lane and suddenly the car attempted to veer into the right lane with no turn signal and a sudden jolt. Thank heavens the road was basically empty. Earlier in the trip on similar empty stretches, instead of picking one of the three lanes with almost zero traffic the car repeatedly changed lanes.

Bizarre is the best I could describe that easy drive. I mostly drive South Chandler streets and since this area is pretty new, the streets are about the easiest you could find in the USA. No wonder Waymo chose this area for their first big beta tests of self driving. Yet my 3 acts like it is attempting to navigate complex, narrow, winding streets designed for horse drawn wagons 200 years ago.

However, just to be clear, I do want the FSD Beta on my S that will be five years old next month. I paid for it and should have it before people who bought their car last week, obviously. But it is a unruly child who can only be tolerated by a permissive parent.

 

[hybridbear]

I am actually curious given the state of affairs with our particular cars, wondering when some of you might guess that FSD would be close to or ready for fleetwide release........i believe earlier someone said that this has been going on for over a year now, are we another year before this is ready?

Out of “beta”, never. AP1 is still in Beta after 7 years. I imagine that long-term this will be Tesla‘s excuse to abandon MCU1 cars & eventually our cars. They will say that we’ll get FSD once it’s out of Beta, and that will be long after our cars are junked due to old age. They could release it fleetwide while keeping it in Beta & thus excluding those that they deem not worth including. I firmly believe that only a lawsuit will make Tesla take action here, same as MCU1.

 

[valem]

Staggering? Well everyone has an opinion and the YouTube stars have a monetary agenda to make sure they don’t lose their cash cows by excessive criticism. I have no such monetary stake.

I'd like to see some unbiased, unedited FSD video with the silly mistakes it makes... if you ever feel like recording some, I'll watch'em

 

[AndreP]

I honestly don't see what Tesla has to lose in just deploying this to all FSD owners/subscribers who satisfy the Safety Score minimum

Maybe they think the numbers would be too high to properly manage the risk, or maybe the NHTSA has their fingers in it, but I'm not entirely sure what would change otherwise

 

[fbitz777]

So I subscribed for a month (from EAP) and quickly realized I was just paying for stop lights over what I had with EAP (works great for me).

Are we saying that not much progress is being made to production "FSD" over the last year or are they coming up with some features once a while?

 

[hybridbear]

So I subscribed for a month (from EAP) and quickly realized I was just paying for stop lights over what I had with EAP (works great for me).

Are we saying that not much progress is being made to production "FSD" over the last year or are they coming up with some features once a while?

The progress is FSD Beta, which we can't have, outside of that there isn't any progress.

 

[valem]

The progress is FSD Beta, which we can't have, outside of that there isn't any progress.

I second that, and the traffic light detection is more of an annoyance, as it wants to stop at every light regardless of green or red, so you have to be ready to tap the stalk or it wants to stop at every green light.

I wish they fixed the merging lanes "drunken swerving" issue... but production autopilot has not seen much if any progress... forever.

 

[Vector2]

But apparently the score didn’t really matter since ppl who were opted out got the camera invite.

Is that so? I opted out again because I'm going to eat a bullet if I have to keep driving the way a 99 or 100 requires, but I've been considering opting back in if that's the only way to get the camera upgrade email...

 

[Mardak]

Does anyone know if the vehicle year on TeslaFi is automatic from the vehicle or VIN (i.e., not user entered)? This seems to show someone in California with a 2016 S got FSD Beta 10.5 in today's rollout to 99+ score:

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

 

[scottf200]

Does anyone know if the vehicle year on TeslaFi is automatic from the vehicle or VIN (i.e., not user entered)? This seems to show someone in California with a 2016 S got FSD Beta 10.5 in today's rollout to 99+ score:

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

FYI, in the settings and vehicle setup they only ask for the model but not the year. Mine below.

 

[azred]

Does anyone know if the vehicle year on TeslaFi is automatic from the vehicle or VIN (i.e., not user entered)? This seems to show someone in California with a 2016 S got FSD Beta 10.5 in today's rollout to 99+ score:
View attachment 739268

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

Very interesting. The VIN of my 12/2016 S is 175xxx so the S car you referenced with a VIN 159xxx would indeed be “one of us.”

 

[azred]

Very interesting. The VIN of my 12/2016 S is 175xxx so the S car you referenced with a VIN 159xxx would indeed be “one of us.”

On further review VIN 159xxx should be a pre-HW2.0 2016 S, so methinks this one data point is screwed up.

 

[hybridbear]

On further review VIN 159xxx should be a pre-HW2.0 2016 S, so methinks this one data point is screwed up.

Our S90D VIN last six is 156xxx, built November 2016 with HW2. So a 159xxx is probably a November 2016 build.