Proof of Tesla's plan for battery swapping

[ckessel]

I'm just not convinced that Elon musk can figure out a way to make money with solar panels, electric cars and rockets, but can't figure out how to do battery swaps. Sorry.

That's a total non-sequitur. Figuring out how to do batttery swaps has nothing to do with the difficulties in staffing.

Tesla service is understaffed right now. By your logic, that should not have happened since he's figured out building rockets...

 

[callmesam]

I still find it hard to believe that battery swapping stations will be economically feasible, especially over the vast stretches of the American Midwest. Imagine how much it cost to build one of these BetterPlace swapping stations...

Better Place Battery Replacement Station in Ekron - YouTube

This looks like a multi-million-dollar installation, not to mention the land required. A typical Supercharger installation costs about $250K, usually working with existing parking infrastructure. Certainly, the swapping stations would not be free to drivers.

Perhaps in urban areas only.

This works great for Urban Areas and supplements SUPERCHARGING, does not supplant or replace. This is not an either/or proposition.

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That's a total non-sequitur. Figuring out how to do batttery swaps has nothing to do with the difficulties in staffing.

Tesla service is understaffed right now. By your logic, that should not have happened since he's figured out building rockets...

No. My argument was that during the ramp up and launch, labor is constrained, but they continue to hire and that this will be solved. My comment was to this being "impossible" to accomplish in anything but the very long term.

Hiring ramp-up is a problem when you go from 10 employees to 100 employees.

Not when you go from 100 employees to 120 employees.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I still find it hard to believe that battery swapping stations will be economically feasible, especially over the vast stretches of the American Midwest. Imagine how much it cost to build one of these BetterPlace swapping stations...

Better Place Battery Replacement Station in Ekron - YouTube

This looks like a multi-million-dollar installation, not to mention the land required. A typical Supercharger installation costs about $250K, usually working with existing parking infrastructure. Certainly, the swapping stations would not be free to drivers.

Perhaps in urban areas only.

You only need a few of these though. Better Place needed them every 25 miles, which would require a substantial portion of the entire U.S. vehicle fleet to use the system before the business case closes. Tesla can have a skeleton system to cover the whole nation with maybe 100 locations.

Their business case doesn't need to close because they are already a commercial success. But if they charge a reasonable fee for this (as opposed to just giving it away) their business case closes almost as soon as GenIII hits the road. And if GenIII gets a million vehicles on the road they can be minting money with this, and the capital cost will be seen as puny, because you can cover almost any volume with the same 200-400 stations.

 

[Nickjhowe]

being a race car driver i would think the swapping would ultimately be used in racing

Battery swapping will almost certainly be needed for racing, so that's a great use case.

To me the most logical conclusion is that it is primarily to support servicing - either in the event of battery problems, or as part of an annual service. It is OK having a manual lift and an air wrench when there are only 2200 Roadsters worldwide, but when there are 100,000 Model S - as there could be in as little as three years, plus Model X let alone GIII - you really need automated battery swaps to drive operational efficiency. We know that Elon is focused on the bottom line.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I doubt Tesla will implement a system where you'll get your original battery back when returning after a swap. All of their communication, from the basically unlimited warranty on the battery, to the removal of the "range charge" in the upcoming software is designed to remove consumer concern that they have to treat the battery a special way to get maximum life out of it. I think they see this issue as ultimately limiting to sales and are willing to work around the problem with the swap.

If they don't offer to return the battery to you, then this dramatically simplifies inventory, doesn't it? If it takes five minutes to change a pack and an hour to fully charge, then you only need 12 packs for a lane plus a couple of spares for packs that somehow fail.

I do see this as being implemented primarily in the most remote of locations -- places where you don't want to wait an hour to charge -- between Amarillo and Albuquerque, for example (no offense to the residents of Santa Rosa).

Although I don't see wanting to use swapping often, I know that I would like to to be able to take the Tesla on a destination vacation -- Destin, FL is popular from Dallas, but it's a 700 mile drive -- I know plenty of people who do that in a long day with ICE, so they can maximize their stay in Florida *and* have their own car to drive around. Alternating swapping with Superchargers on the route would be a great way to allow a Tesla to make that journey.

Yes, if they were able to offer some plan where it is acceptable to not pick up your old battery it simplifies things greatly. I am just skeptical that they can offer a plan that will make existing owners happy.

 

[ckessel]

to the removal of the "range charge" in the upcoming software

When/where was that announced?

 

[bollar]

When/where was that announced?

It's in the 4.5 release notes thread. Sorry I can't multi-quote the link, but:

Charge Limit
Many customers have asked for the ability to adjust the Model S charge level based on individual anticipated driving needs. To provide this flexibility, charge level options, Standard and Max Range, have been replaced with a slider that allows you to specify the charge limit by percentage.

1. To adjust the charge limit, tap the "Set Charge Limit" button and slide to the desired value.
2. You can select form 30% to 100% charge.
3. The new setting will apply for scheduled and immediate charging instructions.

 

[ckessel]

It's in the 4.5 release notes thread. Sorry I can't multi-quote the link, but:

Oh, that's not removing Range charging at all. It's just changing from 2 charge options to basically an infinite number of charge options.

 

[ohmslaw]

Oh, that's not removing Range charging at all. It's just changing from 2 charge options to basically an infinite number of charge options.

Yes, but by calling "range charge" merely "100%," it is an implied message that it's fine to charge to that amount.

 

[ckessel]

Yes, but by calling "range charge" merely "100%," it is an implied message that it's fine to charge to that amount.

That's not the implication I get at all from the release note wording.

 

[bollar]

Oh, that's not removing Range charging at all. It's just changing from 2 charge options to basically an infinite number of charge options.

Fair enough, but now, there's no documentation that suggests that you only charge to X% unless you need the range. It's clear to me that Tesla is trying to make the battery into an appliance / black box part of the car and they really don't want people trying to figure out some way to squeeze more life out of it -- set it to 100% and forget it, unless you have a special need like putting it in storage, or some kind of tiered power rate, or even just staying at a friend's house and you don't want to be rude.

To be clear, I don't think early adopters and power users will like this, but I do think the next 90K users will definitely want to leave it at 100%, just like it was when it was delivered to them, and never think about it again...

 

[ohmslaw]

That's not the implication I get at all from the release note wording.

Yeah, that's the mystery of it. From a human-interface perspective, it's odd to expect people to associate "87%" (or whatever) with "normal." If we're not supposed to set it to 100% as a matter of course, from a man-machine interface perspective they should change the scale so 100% is "normal" charge and 110% (or whatever) is "range" charge. Psychologically, it will be hard to explain to people that they should set this value to a non-round number.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Yeah, that's the mystery of it. From a human-interface perspective, it's odd to expect people to associate "87%" (or whatever) with "normal." If we're not supposed to set it to 100% as a matter of course, from a man-machine interface perspective they should change the scale so 100% is "normal" charge and 110% (or whatever) is "range" charge. Psychologically, it will be hard to explain to people that they should set this value to a non-round number.

But I think people will still accept setting it at 80% or 90%. The Leaf's charge mode is either 80% or 100% (no "range" or "standard" mode) and most people still know to set it to 80% for daily use.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

Yes, if they were able to offer some plan where it is acceptable to not pick up your old battery it simplifies things greatly. I am just skeptical that they can offer a plan that will make existing owners happy.

Perhaps the change in the upcoming firmware which eliminates standard vs. range charging is related to this — moving owners away from the idea that there is a good way and a bad way to charge your battery.

 

[ohmslaw]

But I think people will still accept setting it at 80% or 90%. The Leaf's charge mode is either 80% or 100% (no "range" or "standard" mode) and most people still know to set it to 80% for daily use.

Just because Nissan is too dumb to understand human nature doesn't mean Elon is.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Just because Nissan is too dumb to understand human nature doesn't mean Elon is.

I just don't think it's that hard for people to learn that regularly charging at 80% or 90% is better for the battery than 100%. That's just a simple fact that as people get used to BEVs that people will pick up (and it applies to all BEVs not just the Model S).

The alternative proposal of 110% goes against all SOC conventions (both from an interface and technical perspective) and I think that will cause more problems than it would solve.

 

[teslasguy]

Swapping makes a lot of sense to me. Solves the wait time with Superchargers. I think the recent "unconditional warranty" statement regarding our batteries might in fact be a precursor to the swap out plan rollout. If our batteries are guaranteed unconditionally for 8 years then who cares what battery we use. That only leaves the issue of the condition of the battery at the end of the 8th year. All Tesla has to do is state that our battery will be as good at the end of 8 years as our original and all is well. Probably have to guarantee a certain level of condition after 8 years. Kind of like the car residual value promise. And hooking up with Better Place makes a lot of sense. Would really be a big boost for them that they really need. Limiting swap stations to service centers makes no sense. A lot of them are in out of the way locations not conducive to a lot of traffic.

 

[bollar]

I just don't think it's that hard for people to learn that regularly charging at 80% or 90% is better for the battery than 100%. That's just a simple fact that as people get used to BEVs that people will pick up (and it applies to all BEVs not just the Model S).

The alternative proposal of 110% goes against all SOC conventions (both from an interface and technical perspective) and I think that will cause more problems than it would solve.

I'm with ohmslaw on this. If there is an optimal setting, the manufacturer needs to make it clear -- like it is on the software most Tesla owners have today.

 

[brianman]

Oh, that's not removing Range charging at all. It's just changing from 2 charge options to basically an infinite number of charge options.

If the term "range charge" is removed from the UI itself, then that means "removed" in my book. At least technically speaking.

If you #define "range charge" in your personal CPU to "100% charging", then no "100% charging" is not removed in 4.5 AFAIK.

YMMV of course.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm with ohmslaw on this. If there is an optimal setting, the manufacturer needs to make it clear -- like it is on the software most Tesla owners have today.

The thing is there is no real "optimal" number that applies for everyone. You can go all the way down to 40% and still see reduced degradation. 80%, 90%, etc is largely an arbitrary number. Tesla seems to have chose the cut off point based on the estimated range number rather than the actual battery impact.

From an interface perspective they can show this kind of like for an rpm gauge (where a range of rpm values are noted as "redline" using a block of color).