Proposal for Q2 Celebration and beyond; Invitation for Julian Cox!!!

[kevin99]

I almost certainly can't go, but why have any criteria for the party other than, "Who wants to come to a TSLA focused party?" If you committed to a date and place now, I think you'd get many more people. My .00014856633487 of a share's worth (@134.62)

Well I want to make it more fun and with more suspense!

But realistically, people need to feel good to go to a party. They also need to feel rich to afford the trip, hence the performance criteria.

Oh the date is set on the Aug.17 weekend, and the location is favored in Viva Las Vegas!

 

[kevin99]

Personally I think the performance criteria should be solely based on stock price because I think that GAAP earnings are difficult to predict and won't represent how good the earnings report is.

Also, I think there's a chance it might take a couple days for the price to peak after earnings.

So, the performance criteria IMO should be:
- TSLA stock price reaches in intraday high of $160 by the end of the 3rd day after Q2 earnings.

Nice suggestion. Considering Aug. 8th is Thursday, I will modify the #2 criterion to be

- TSLA stock price reaches in intraday high of $150 by the week ended on Friday Aug. 9th.

So we will decide go or not by Sunday Aug. 11th. The party will be on Aug. 17 Saturday in Viva Las Vegas!

Updated in the original post as well.

 

[FredTMC]

Nice suggestion. Considering Aug. 8th is Thursday, I will modify the #2 criterion to be

- TSLA stock price reaches in intraday high of $150 by the week ended on Friday Aug. 9th.

So we will decide go or not by Sunday Aug. 11th. The party will be on Aug. 17 Saturday in Viva Las Vegas!

Updated in the original post as well.

I'd like to come and drive from SoCal. I haven't done the LV run yet. However, I'm coming back from Maui the day before.
I'll try to get clearance from my wife (the real decision maker). LOL

 

[Alpha]

Agree, party should happen no matter what-- If you invite Mr. Market, you never know if he will show!
There is much to celebrate whether earnings pan out or not...
But I won't be there, so my vote doesn't count

 

[kevin99]

I'd like to come and drive from SoCal. I haven't done the LV run yet. However, I'm coming back from Maui the day before.
I'll try to get clearance from my wife (the real decision maker). LOL

That would be great. We can ride in your Tesla!

Actually it reminds me of Tony Hsieh's Tesla 100 project in Vegas:

Zappos CEO rethinks urban transportation in Vegas with 100 Tesla Model S cars Tech News and Analysis

Anyone know the latest? Is it ready that we can rent those Tesla??

 

[Convert2013]

You guys are counting your chickens before they hatch. Did you see what happened to Sunpower (SPWR) today? Overall positive news but still decimated. Market is crazy. I'm excited about this party thing but feel we should wait till earnings is released and see stock price reaction. I'm up for a celebration after TSLA reaches $200.

 

[Norbert]

You guys are counting your chickens before they hatch. Did you see what happened to Sunpower (SPWR) today? Overall positive news but still decimated. Market is crazy. I'm excited about this party thing but feel we should wait till earnings is released and see stock price reaction. I'm up for a celebration after TSLA reaches $200.

Seemed GS played a role in that as well, with a new price target lower than current price, as well. in hindsight, their previous price targets for SPWR, as far as I can tell, were much lower than reality (meaning, wrong).

EDIT: The post I responded to, here, was originally posted in another thread... my response was written in that context.

 

[Convert2013]

Seemed GS played a role in that as well, with a new price target lower than current price, as well. in hindsight, their previous price targets for SPWR, as far as I can tell, were much lower than reality (meaning, wrong).

Ooops I goofed up.
Nigel can you please move my comment to the Q2 Celebrations thread? Thanks in advance.

 

[CyberDutchie]

You guys are counting your chickens before they hatch. Did you see what happened to Sunpower (SPWR) today? Overall positive news but still decimated. Market is crazy. I'm excited about this party thing but feel we should wait till earnings is released and see stock price reaction. I'm up for a celebration after TSLA reaches $200.

I agree, $200 is a good cause for celebration, $150 not good enough.

 

[kevin99]

I agree, $200 is a good cause for celebration, $150 not good enough.

Guys, I am afraid mentality like this would cost you money, even with a great stock like Tsla. Are you going to buy a call strike @200??? Come on, be serious!

 

[deonb]

Guys, I am afraid mentality like this would cost you money, even with a great stock like Tsla. Are you going to buy a call strike @200??? Come on, be serious!

Well, if you made the same crazy purchase by buying $65 June 22 calls on April 8th (which was the 50% premium, similar to $200 against $133), and let it run until expiration, you would have been able to buy a P85 for $125 (25 contracts purchased at 5c, sold at $40).

So yeah, I have some $200 strikes. I'm not buying more than I'm willing to bet in a single hand in Blackjack, but I would never forgive myself if the price somehow goes over $200 after ER and I've lost out on that bet twice in a row. The premium now is cheaper than paying for therapy later .


Ask yourself the question the other way around, with what you know about how crazy this stock behaves, and what we know about what's coming in Q2, that short interest piled up again, and that weak longs were just shaken out by GS, would you be willing to write a naked $200 call?

 

[Acmykguy]

Guys, I am afraid mentality like this would cost you money, even with a great stock like Tsla. Are you going to buy a call strike @200??? Come on, be serious!

Nope but 190 is good! You will see (fingers crossed)

 

[smorgasbord]

This thread is giving me pause on Q2 expectations. Surely Mr. Market isn't missing all the expectations. We could easily be in a situation where Tesla beats their expressed expectations and yet the stock plummets. Furthermore - any maybe I missed it - but I think there will be some accounting requirements around the sales-that-looks-like-leases which will hurt on a GAAP basis.

 

[kevin99]

I think I saw a few new comments on ipad, but then they don't show up on the desktop. If they get deleted, it is a good thing.

The tone of the thread is taking a turn since the last several posts. I am concerning the amount of risk involved to project the Q2 rosy scenario.

I should make a disclaim that while I am a TSLA bull, and view favorable of the Q2 earning, I am not in any manner preaching that TSLA explodes to a meteoric price level, as those tossed out like $200. To me it smells big trouble. And I remember a well known trader once said, anytime you are trying to make a trade so you can buy a BMW for your wife, you lose money.

Back to this thread, it is about having a venue to celebrate, if Q2 turns out to be good and people feel good doing it.

 

[kevin99]

Some problem so I might double post.

 

[deonb]

Something is wrong with this thread... I keep seeing it raised to the "new post" area, but no new posts are posted.

 

[kevin99]

Something is wrong with this thread... I keep seeing it raised to the "new post" area, but no new posts are posted.

Yeah. I can only see new posts on ipad via tapatalk.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well, if you made the same crazy purchase by buying $65 June 22 calls on April 8th (which was the 50% premium, similar to $200 against $133), and let it run until expiration, you would have been able to buy a P85 for $125 (25 contracts purchased at 5c, sold at $40).

So yeah, I have some $200 strikes. I'm not buying more than I'm willing to bet in a single hand in Blackjack, but I would never forgive myself if the price somehow goes over $200 after ER and I've lost out on that bet twice in a row. The premium now is cheaper than paying for therapy later .


Ask yourself the question the other way around, with what you know about how crazy this stock behaves, and what we know about what's coming in Q2, that short interest piled up again, and that weak longs were just shaken out by GS, would you be willing to write a naked $200 call?

Of course that crazy purchase is more than 2 times the price right now and still unlikely. But hey, I could still buy 10 contracts for $150 or so which is probably more likely to hit than a lottery ticket. I never play the lottery, so why not?

 

[CyberDutchie]

I agree, $200 is a good cause for celebration, $150 not good enough.

What I was trying to say with my comment is that, when the stock keeps the same trajectory as its on now, it only needs a 7% or so jump after earning to reach the $150 point. That's not uncommon for any company that beats their numbers.

On the other hand, reaching $200 would mean a huge jump and major new milestone, definitely cause for a pull-out-all-the-stops type celebration.

Not to say that I won't be extremely happy if we see $150 next week. :biggrin:

 

[deonb]

Not to say that I won't be extremely happy if we see $150 next week. :biggrin:

You mean $150 on Wednesday, BEFORE ER, right?