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Proposed Model 3 Reservation Process Solutions

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Nothing against our European/Asian friends, but I'm hoping they prioritize U.S. deliveries in the first year or so for the simple fact that with the limited tax credits and as they start to diminish there will be an incentive to U.S. customers and Tesla to get as many Model 3s delivered before it goes away as is possible. Remember, we're one of the few places in the world with a legislature where the majority thinks the carbon cycle is a myth and "Clean Coal" is the great energy source of the future!
 
Nothing against our European/Asian friends, but I'm hoping they prioritize U.S. deliveries in the first year or so ...

OK with me - AFTER they have delivered my car ;)

Remember, US is not the only place where there is incentives that may run out... Here we have no VAT on BEV's - until 1/1 2018. Full VAT is 25% here. What will happen here 1/1 2018? No-one knows for sure, but they are talking about having full VAT, and repay it - up to a "roof". How high will this roof be? Again, no-one knows, but I can almost bet on it to be somewhere between the price of a Leaf and a bare-bone TMS70 (personally I call this the Tesla-tax, as it is clearly targeted Tesla). And the roof will be lowered until 2020 and then disappear. So if I get the car in 2017 (no, I do not expect this...) I will for sure not have to pay VAT. If I get the car in 2018 I may be have to pay a bit in VAT, but probably not much. If I get it in 2019 I will - if this plans is implemented - have to pay more in VAT. And yes, 25% VAT on this car is more then $7,500...
 
Just talked with customer rep at NY 25th st store, they said stores will open at 10am on the 31st but they will only accept orders starting at 12pm to sync with CA. Also told me they receive tons of inquiries about model 3 everyday, so may need to come early.
 
Just talked with customer rep at NY 25th st store, they said stores will open at 10am on the 31st but they will only accept orders starting at 12pm to sync with CA. Also told me they receive tons of inquiries about model 3 everyday, so may need to come early.

If they are trying to sync with CA, I'm guessing they won't start accepting orders until 1pm given that would be 10am out here, which is when the stores/galleries typically open (unless they plan on opening an hour earlier on the 31st for some reason).
 
Will there be any way to know ahead of time what the "magic upgrade" (or cheapest upgrade) is to get in on the early production runs? Could it mean simply upgrading to the larger battery or from RWD to AWD, etc.? Or will it simply be a dollar point (any orders over $50k get produced first)?
 
I kind of find it a little difficult to see the Californians trying to figure out how things can be "fair" for them....the people prioritized for deliveries of S, X, and roll out of superchargers...I mean, kudos to all the raisins out there buying up Teslas, but let's ease up on the "fair" question. Tesla will build and ship them based on their own internal algorithm anyway.
 
Could it mean simply upgrading to the larger battery or from RWD to AWD, etc.?

Historical from Model S - and now X - tells us that yes, battery and "P" is the big thing that makes the priority of when a car has been built. To have a choice between 2WD and AWD from the start of production is new with Model 3, and will probably also be a factor, and the same with premium/leather interior.

I don't think they will do the "dollar point" you suggested, more like "We build cars with package X before the cars without", and probably with most weight on the packages with the highest profit.
 
If they are trying to sync with CA, I'm guessing they won't start accepting orders until 1pm given that would be 10am out here, which is when the stores/galleries typically open (unless they plan on opening an hour earlier on the 31st for some reason).

Except that time makes it about 2am here on the first so if online orders start on the first I'll have got my online order in before you guys get to walk into the store.
 
I see this a lot, but to me, it makes it more of an issue. If I was going to drop $60k on a fully-equipped Model 3, I'd be pretty sure I'm getting in the first half of 2018, when I think the Federal tax credit is in full effect. So I'd order the Model 3 at home.

But if I'm only spending $45k on Model 3 (which I think is what most people will do), now all of a sudden I'm in a huge crowd of people so now it's 2019 territory, but maybe Q3-Q4 2018 - if I have a low reservation number. And I want that tax credit. Ordering on the 1st could easily mean a 6 month difference in getting the car, which could make a $3,750 difference in the tax credit.

Even if ordering on 3/31 only has a 10% chance of making this theory/scenario possible, then the Expected Value EV= 10%*$3750 = $375. So basically, is it worth $375 for me to stand in line with all you other crazy people? And get the benefit of getting a Model 3 before most of the other <$45k buyers? Absolutely (to me)!

I see this topic is getting a lot of action, so I'm just gonna copy this post a sticky note and save it for every time this conversation comes up. This is EXACTLY my thought process about wanting to reserve as soon as possible. I don't think I could have said it any better.
 
Tesla recently discontinued sequence number system for Model X and have been posting the date of reservation instead.

Could that mean in this case, all reservations on that same date even at the very last minute of a day carry the same weight as those who camp out a week before in the rain just to be the first to reserve.
 
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Tesla recently discontinued sequence number system for Model X and have been posting the date of reservation instead.

Could that mean in this case, all reservations on that same date even at the very last minute of a day carry the same weight as those who camp out a week before in the rain just to be the first to reserve.

It sounds like they are going to be doing the same thing as they did with the Model X where the most optioned cars will go first and the $35k cars will go last. This make the reservation number/date will be not as important as what you buy. Therefore the only people who will be able to take advantage of the $7,500 rebate will be non-base car buyers. If there are any rebates left at all by then. The other thing is they don't have to go in reservation order. We have all learned through the Model S and model X process they can do what they want and change the game in the middle. Even though they aren't going to have a signature model isn't to say they won't move previous Tesla owners to the top of the list for being loyal. Most companies reward their best customers, so should Tesla.
 
Personally, I would just as soon the East coast took an advantage. But if the Westies want to talk about a fair method, then behold the choice so frightening your fingers refused to type what the mind wrought:

Option #5 - Random reservation number generation. Each reservation pulls a random slot from the pool of available numbers. The initial pool is 1 through 1000, and a zero is added to the end of the ceiling whenever the pool hits 20% drawn, up to 10 milion (because really...) Since they are golden children, those at the reveal event stay within the 1-1000 block, regardless of how store reservations are going (unless for some bizarre reason they are all taken,) and the pool automatically pops-out to the max 10M cap come April 2nd. Fair chance for everyone, still provides a degree of incentive for getting in earlier, and everyone gets their number in-hand when the money goes in.

I think I had devised a fleet modifier when coming up with the system yesterday morning, so they could get in on the action too, with the ability to order multiple identical units in the same ranking, but don't recall exactly what it was. Maybe something like having to be outside the first 100k, so they only had the slimmest of chances of striking tax credit.