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Prospects of Getting a Rebate

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by flamingoezz, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    I read the thread about how the rebate expires, but was wondering about tesla's production history. I'm late to the ballgame -- just preordered last night, so I'm probably close to #399,999.

    I live on the East Coast, so that puts me towards the back of the line to begin with. Luckily though, people can cancel their preorder at any time, so maybe 2-5% either find out it's not really a 35K car when you add in the options most people want...2 years is a long time before these start hitting the road, so a lot can happen. Plus another 15% of preorders could belong to other countries, which get lower priority than those of us in the USA. And maybe my car will have higher specs than another 20% of those in my region and be built earlier.

    So lets say 256,000 people are ahead of me in line. If a Model 3 breaks the mark where the rebates start getting phased out, is there any chance they pump out 250,000+ of these cars within 6 months of the first car hitting the road?
     
  2. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    At this point there are too many variables to really know -- from Elon suggesting that Tesla would hold back the 200,000th car to how many X and S models are produced between now and then. Not to mention delays of the 3 itself.

    At this point I would anticipate NOT being able to earn the full credit given your place in line. I reserved on March 31 and I am budgeting as if I won't get the full credit. The silver lining is you don't configure your car until closer to production, when we will probably have a better idea of how the credits are playing out. At that time you can either adjust the options to make up for getting/not getting the credit.
     
  3. Peanutman85

    Peanutman85 Member

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    I reserved mine in store on day one, but since I am on the east coast and I'm not going to get it fully loaded, I'm just going to go on the assumption that I won't get the rebate and act accordingly.

    If I do end up getting the rebate, it will be a nice, little bonus.
     
  4. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    love the name boourns...thanks for the reply.

    At the model 3 order tracking site that is floating around, it seems like near 50% of preorders are outside the US. that could put me in a little better position to get some sort of rebate. I didn't really factor that S & X model teslas would be sold during the time I'm waiting for my m3 to come off the assembly line -- but I'm also thinking model S sales over the next year or two may not grow very much. We've already seen a ton of people are waiting it out for the model 3.

    Crossing my fingers I'll get 3750...we'll see
     
  5. Muaddid

    Muaddid Member

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    Best to plan getting none and maybe receiving a bonus than counting on it and being at risk...
     
  6. vjason

    vjason Member

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    It will be interesting to see if ordering a larger battery makes the same difference for the 3 as it does the X. I realize this is supposed to be a car for the masses, but I also understand the need to make some cash (and Elon has been quoted as saying he wants the highest margins in the industry, mentioned in the Vance book).

    None of this matters really until we find out how many of these things they can actually build in a day. 500K cars/year is 1370 a day, if running 7 days a week. Their forecast for Q1 (Model S and X of course) is 176 cars a day (16K cars).

    Are there any manufacturing gurus out there that can tell is how easy it is to scale production by a factor of 8 on a complex product that has not yet been finalized? I've read on this board that the 3 can be produced in one run through the production line, versus 2 for S and X (not exact words, can't remember the post but that was the gist of it). If that is true that will help with part of the ramp by itself.

    The Q1 2016 quarterly report (and all future ones prior to 3 launch) will be very interesting.... if the meet the 16K delivery figure good, if they can beat it even better.
     
  7. ucmndd

    ucmndd Member

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    No. None whatsoever.
     
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  8. xmetal

    xmetal Member

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    I'll just say that if Tesla finds a way to game the system and screw the government by intelligently distributing their cars to keep under the caps, I will laugh and laugh and laugh, and laugh some more while applying my $7500 tax credit.
     
  9. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    The obvious plan (and one that Elon eluded to) is:
    1. Build up an inventory of Model 3s but hold back on delivery.
    2. Time delivery of 200,000th U.S. car to the first day of the quarter.
    3. Deliver the held-back cars.
    4. For the next two quarters run the plant full HAM and crank out as many as possible.
    5. Profit.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    This is approximately my expectation, form a different thread:

    Production ramp up:

    Q1 2016: 12.4k Model S, 2.4k Model X, 14.8k total
    Q2 2016: 13k Model S, 9.5k Model X, 22.5k total
    Q3 2016: 13k Model S, 11k Model X, 24k total
    Q4 2016: 13k Model S, 12k Model X, 25k total
    Q1 2017: 13k Model S, 13k Model X, 26k total
    Q2 2017: 13k Model S, 13k Model X, 26k total
    Q3 2017: 14k Model S, 14k Model X, 28k total
    Q4 2017: 14k Model S, 14k Model X, 10k Model 3, 38k total
    Q1 2018: 13k Model S, 14k Model X, 15k Model 3, 42k total
    Q2 2018: 13k Model S, 14k Model X, 23k Model 3, 50k total
    Q3 2018: 12k Model S, 14k Model X, 30k Model 3, 57k total
    Q4 2018: 12k Model S, 14k Model X, 37k Model 3, 64k total

    Assuming 50% of S/X sales are in the US, all Model 3 sales go to the US until the full tax credits are gone, and they shift 7k S/X deliveries from Q1 2018 to Q2 2018, we end up with these cumulative US sales:

    US Sales
    Through 2015: 65.3k
    Q1 2016: 8.8k, 74k cumulative
    Q2 2016: 11k, 85k cumulative
    Q3 2016: 12k, 97k cumulative
    Q4 2016: 12k, 109k cumulative
    Q1 2017: 13k, 122k cumulative
    Q2 2017: 13k, 140k cumulative
    Q3 2017: 14k, 154k cumulative
    Q4 2017: 24k, 178k cumulative (10k Model 3)
    Q1 2018: 21k, 199k cumulative (25k Model 3 cumulative)
    Q2 2018: 43k, 242k cumulative (48k Model 3 cumulative)
    Q3 2018: 43k, 285k cumulative (78k Model 3 cumulative)

    In this scenario, 78k US buyers receive the full credit. Maybe they could push it up to 100k - but 250k? Absolutely not going to happen.
     
    • Informative x 1
  11. geoffreak

    geoffreak Model 3 Reservation Holder

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    Yeah, don't get your hopes up. I think the current estimates for production are <100k Model 3's in 2018 and <200k in 2019. With another two years of Model S and X production left until the release, I would expect the full rebate to end around Q2 or Q3 of 2018 (with 200k passed 4-6 months prior). This means that all rebates would end a year later, leaving around 60k US buyers with a full rebate and 150k US buyers with a partial rebate. I assume that around 60-70% of orders so far are from the US and that Tesla will prioritize the US orders for the first year and less so the second.
     
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  12. Gilzo

    Gilzo Member

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    To me, all the speculations on the rebate depends on one main factor; how fast will they be able to ramp up production for the model 3. Everything else binds into that.

    If they can hit production on time and in quantity, I believe almost everyone, if not everyone will get one of the 3 rebates.

    They'll have 18 months of production to fulfill the rebates if they time the 200k vehicle at the beginning of the quarter. 18 months!

    So to me, if they can hit their strive with the model 3 production at the beginning of that 18 months, they should be able to get all US orders out before the 18 months expire.

    Big if I know, but that's the main question, the root, in which all other questions are tied to. Just my humbling opinion
     
  13. pmich80

    pmich80 Between U and me I'm giddy waitin' for the Model ≡

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    As I've said before...what they should do is deliver their last car at 199,999 (or close to) around a certain quarter end. Then ramp up production to other parts of the world as they build out/finesse their production limits. Finally return to delivering to the USA and delivery that 200,000 along with another 100,000-200,000 over the course of that year so that most get usage of the tax credit. As a canadian I FULLY support this :) hahaha
     
  14. geoffreak

    geoffreak Model 3 Reservation Holder

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    #14 geoffreak, Apr 15, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2016

    Wishful thinking, but you're forgetting the S and X production that adds to that 200k total. Today, Tesla has already built and sold around 50k qualifying vehicles. Tesla expects to produce 100k cars this year, with approximately half of those in the US, which will push this total to 100k. In 2017, Tesla expects to produce up to 150-200k cars a year, edging extremely close to the 200k mark by the start of 2018.

    Even if production is slower than expected, Tesla will still pass this 200k mark sometime in 2018, giving up to a year and a half of credits longer. With only 300k cars worldwide slated to be produced in 2018 and 2019 (and only maybe 60-70% of those in the US), it is extremely unlikely that everyone will get a credit at all, much less the full one.
     
  15. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    Just to be clear (and it's not just semantics), what we're talking about here is not a rebate, but rather a tax credit. You have to have enough tax liability to take advantage of some or all of the $7,500 credit. This eligbility factor is independent of the number of cars Tesla sells in the US.
     
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  16. xmetal

    xmetal Member

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    Yes, absolutely. Though I would wager that most people buying a Model 3 have income sufficient to take advantage of the credit to dramatically reduce or eliminate their liability.
     
  17. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    Agreed, if Tesla continued without any kind of regard for the credit. But because it is put in terms of cars Tesla delivered, rather than manufactured, there is room to -- and evidence that Tesla is planning to -- alter its behavior in a way to maximize the number of customers getting the credit.

    Of course, my speculation is based on a friggin' tweet, so the only truly accurate answer is that no one knows outside of Elon and others at Tesla. ;)
     
  18. geoffreak

    geoffreak Model 3 Reservation Holder

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    Yes, I fully expect Tesla to try and maximize the credit. I also expect them not to deliver as many US S and X cars as they say they will. I was more trying to come up with a reasonable "worst case" scenario. Best case would probably not have the phase-out start until the end of 2018 or even 2019. The issue with this is that Tesla expects S and X sales to finance the 3 development and production costs, so slower S and X sales could result in slower 3 ramp up.
     
  19. Gilzo

    Gilzo Member

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    I'm not forgetting the S and X numbers. I think they'll be right around the 200k when production starts for the model 3. They may need to delivery overseas vehicles and/or hold delivery for US orders of the S and X for a period to time it right. That may be at the end of 2017 or sometime in 2018..who knows.

    My point was simply IF they were able to have their production of the 3 in order and flowing good, they could in theory, deliver hundreds of thousands of cars after the 200k car limit during that 18 month window. And during that window, everyone that is qualified for the incentive will get it. Sure it would be nice to be in that first 6 month window to get the full $7500. But even the $3750 or $1875 would be nice as well.
     
  20. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    even if they slow down S & X orders fulfilled in USA, as soon as M3's start hitting the streets, you're going to hit 200,000 very fast.

    The only way to get most of the preorders a decent tax break is to hold delivery while you produce a large amount of M3's. There is a ton of space outside the gigafactory

     

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