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Prove Me Wrong: Inclusion is Played Out Until Announcement

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Apparently average investors did not know about S&P Inclusion for Tesla. Why would they? But the Reuters story Friday about S&P Inclusion went viral and was syndicated by the NYT and CNBC. Then regular investors bought up Tesla shares pushing the stock up over 10% in one day... and they may continue Monday as some “think about it” over the weekend.

It’s no longer a secret. It’s time to lighten up for now. Prove me wrong.

If you don’t. The inclusion play goes bye bye
 
Apparently average investors did not know about S&P Inclusion for Tesla. Why would they? But the Reuters story Friday about S&P Inclusion went viral and was syndicated by the NYT and CNBC. Then regular investors bought up Tesla shares pushing the stock up over 10% in one day... and they may continue Monday as some “think about it” over the weekend.

It’s no longer a secret. It’s time to lighten up for now. Prove me wrong.

If you don’t. The inclusion play goes bye bye

The thinking is that it has gone up to much too fast and therefore Q2 results and the potential for S&P 500 inclusion are already factored in? And therefore best to reduce the delta exposure over the short term and increase once S&P is confirmed and funds are required to buy?
 
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The thinking is that it has gone up to much too fast and therefore Q2 results and the potential for S&P 500 inclusion are already factored in? And therefore best to reduce the delta exposure over the short term and increase once S&P is confirmed and funds are required to buy?

pretty much. Possibly adding some dollars after earnings but before the committee announcement of a date.
 
Apparently average investors did not know about S&P Inclusion for Tesla. Why would they? But the Reuters story Friday about S&P Inclusion went viral and was syndicated by the NYT and CNBC. Then regular investors bought up Tesla shares pushing the stock up over 10% in one day... and they may continue Monday as some “think about it” over the weekend.

It’s no longer a secret. It’s time to lighten up for now. Prove me wrong.

If you don’t. The inclusion play goes bye bye


1. You first need to prove your statements.
2. I don't know how to prove your statements wrong.
3. For those trying to follow your bold moves, this really ought to go in your other thread.
 
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1. You first need to prove your statements.
2. I don't know how to prove your statements wrong.
3. For those trying to follow your bold moves, this really ought to go in your other thread.

Don't care. Don't need to prove it.

Because of the information edge that we have, the markets don't appreciate very new information to us. So may have been up a % or 2 because of Elon's tweets about cost reductions (unibody cast of Y in Berlin) from superfans/suberbulls buying on those comments, and maybe a percent from "European compact hatchback,"... The market as a whole was focused on the Reuters/NYT/CNBC coverage of S&P inclusion.
 
I think the S&P inclusion has been overplayed for quite a while. The large institional traders that will buy Tesla in volume will mostly do so through dark pools so as to minimize price impact on the public exchanges. Not only is it priced in, but the large accumulations needed likely already exist in hand within the dark pools. Definitely retail investors should not seriously entertain the notion that they have a good hand to profit from this. The whole reason dark pools exist is to assure that retail investors have no advantage when large stock positions change hands.
 
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