TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Psychiatrist here? I'm fixated on "free" supercharging and depreciation

Discussion in 'Model S' started by calisnow, Mar 30, 2017.

  1. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,217
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    In the next couple days I take delivery of a 2017 FSD 60D to replace the 2016 70D stolen from me by my family members. God help me. This is the emotional validation post I make fun of when others do it. Does anyone feel as I do? Fixated on free supercharging? There are STILL new cars popping up every other day or so in inventory which have it all:
    • Lifetime supercharging + 2017 model year
    • Post-Jan 23 build dates (small overlap crash protection improvement - hopefully no more concussions on dummies)
    • Ventilated seats
    • Air suspension
    I can't stop looking at them. I have the urge to collect them and put them in a warehouse for safe keeping and a hedge against an imagined electricity-price-apocalypse. WTF is wrong with me? I shouldn't care. The supercharging - under best possible case scenario ($20,000+ free electricity over 10 years) is financially irrelevant to my life compared with the time savings of a 100D vs a 90D (no 100D's have unlimited supercharging) over the same 10 years.

    But I can't stop thinking of anything money related in terms of NPV of future discounted cash flows. And I can't stop seeing these last few S's as some magical "self driving, unlimited fuel-for-the-rest-of-Calisnow's-hopefully-long-life" space ship.

    Which is ludicrous - because as soon as Elon drops a car with lidar on us and a 5 minute charge time - I'll dump my free supercharging car and buy it.

    But in addition to my love affair with cash flow I have an aversion to depreciation. So instead of buying myself a 100D (which I really need right now) - I've sprung for: a 60D with FSD and air springs.

    Next winter in Wisconsin in -15F February I will creep along in my 2017 60D at 55 mph, shivering in electrically heated socks and gloves, a thick hat and a blanket so that I can make it from one work location to another without running out of juice. I will photograph myself freezing my ____ off with icicles dripping down my nose - and you will laugh at me.

    But GODDAMNIT I won't be suffering the depreciation hit of a 100D when I compulsively upgrade to whatever Elon has in store for 2019. :)

    I'm insane.

    Screen Shot 2017-03-30 at 11.37.49 AM.png
     
    • Funny x 12
    • Disagree x 1
  2. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,768
    Location:
    Greenville, SC
    I contemplated swapping my 60D for a 100D but just the deprecation hit is more than what an "aftermarket" battery swap would cost. I will wait it out and just "live" with my perfectly adequate 60D for the foreseeable future. I may swap in the newer seats at some point and even a larger battery but I'm OK with my 60D right now.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. tpham07

    tpham07 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2017
    Messages:
    459
    Location:
    Baton Rouge
    You're supposed to only use superchargers for long-distance roadtrips so unless you're driving across the country every month, you're not saving that much on electricity with free superchargers. If i did 3,000 miles of roadtrips a year it would only cost me $180-$250 in electricity and i plan on charging at home nightly while i'm at home (like all responsible tesla owners should since superchargers are not for local owners)

    There are a lot of reviews about ventilated seats as well, mostly negative. People don't like they wear out faster, or that they are hard to clean, or that they don't even ventilate that well. In a car that you can control the temperature remotely from your phone i dont see the need. Personally i would just get the newest and latest. If i'm spending that much $$ on a car then i want the latest hardware/features.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,768
    Location:
    Greenville, SC
    I have had cars with perforated leather before and they are a beast to keep clean and they wear very quickly.
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. twonius

    twonius Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2016
    Messages:
    221
    Location:
    San Diego CA
    Also note you're already sitting on 75kwh.

    Perhaps once the powertrain warranty is up it'll be most economical to just source the extra 25kwh of modules and unlock the software.
    Of course this is a question for 2024, so who knows what the situation will be then.
     
    • Like x 1
  6. DHG.

    DHG. Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2017
    Messages:
    221
    Location:
    Los Angeles, CA
    - Ventilated seats work fine. I find a notice difference while using them. They aren't AC like my Sierra Denali 2500 which are magical but they work better then a Range Rover. They look great and work well.
    - 60D is a great choice because you can charge to 100% every day and have no battery degradation.
    - depreciation is a major consideration. I live with major depreciation everyday with a P100D :(
    - free unlimited supercharging a great value add and will help minimize depreciation. I bought my car with the full intent of locally supercharging. It the convience of charging at home has made is so I haven't even supercharged once but there are a lot of people who would do that because their apartment complex or condo complex doesn't have the capability of EV charging. Other people will want your car over one without free unlimited supercharging.
    - Your making a sensible decision. Sounds like performance is of no consideration and the money ways heavily on your mind. 60D is a great compromise.

    But I do have theory which is these shorter range vehicles will depreciate faster over 8 years because they will be dinosaurs compared to what will be out and a 300+ mile vehicle will be very practical still. I have no proof of this and not a shread of evidence to support my hunch.
     
  7. SMAlset

    SMAlset Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2017
    Messages:
    742
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    Simple solution calisnow, don't go to Wisconsin.

    Understand the free supercharging incentive though. Hubby succumbed to it on 12/31.
     
    • Funny x 1
  8. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2015
    Messages:
    1,817
    Location:
    Snohomish, WA
    I think a Tesla more than any other car can drive a person insane during the entire decision making process.

    The free supercharging for life is most definitely a psychological thing that just feels good even if the math hardly adds up on it. But, the thing is the next owner is going to have that same attraction to it. So it's going to be interesting to see how much value people put on it.

    The 60D is also not going to be offered much longer so you'll have a bit of unicorn, and we all know how much you love unicorns.

    To me a 60D AP2 car is a pretty solid purchase. Generally speaking the vast majority of time that I supercharge my 70D I never go above 90% anyways. So that leaves me with just hair more miles than what a 100% charged 60D has.

    The only drawback I see on the 60D is there isn't a whole lot known about the future. Things such as:

    The battery degradation. Are you software protected from that?
    Will Tesla always charge the same amount they do now to upgrade it to the 75?
    Will Tesla allow whoever owns it in 8+ years to upgrade the battery.

    As to insane I'm pretty much the definition of it since I just spent 10K on a bicycle. Yeah, a bicycle with two wheels and a bell.
     
  9. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    3,371
    Location:
    Redmond, WA
    $20'000 in free SuperCharging?

    Are you planning on driving 600'000 miles in 10 years?
     
  10. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,217
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I do drive 40K+ miles per year yes. But if you do the math - supercharging is more expensive now than I think a lot of folks realize - especially if you don't drive like a grandmother and you live in a state with higher electricity prices (California). Tesla is charging $0.20 / kwhr for electricity at the superchargers in California - which is almost double the EV rate of $0.11 / kwhr Edison charges for a dedicated EV home account.

    If you manage 350 whr / mile that's $0.07 / mile right now - or $16 per "fill-up" of 80 kwhr, for example, on a 90D. But if you like to cruise at 80mph, or you accelerate briskly - and especially if you have an X - you can easily be running 450 whr/mile - or almost $0.09 / mile. My 14 mph gas guzzling 91 octane consuming SUV only runs a bit more than double that cost.

    I'm not sure where Elon gets his funny math that a trip from LA to SF will only cost $15 in supercharger electricity.

    Also - $0.20 is TODAY's prices - there are no guarantees Tesla will not decide to make supercharging a profit center or to mysteriously claim they need to raise prices much faster than inflation over the next few years. Who's to say supercharging prices won't be double in California 5 years from now? For long distance travel you're at the mercy of a MONOPOLY that claims out of the goodness of its heart it will not make supercharging a profit center.
     
  11. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,217
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    @deonb - for more funny math - look at the EPA MPGe rating. 33.7 kwhr = "1 gallon of gas." At Tesla's California supercharging prices that's $6.74 per gallon - more than double the price of any current gas in the state.
     
  12. McRat

    McRat Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2016
    Messages:
    3,551
    Location:
    Norco, CA
    33.7 kWh out of the wall is 27 kWh into the car. 400 Wh/mi is 67.5 miles per 'gallon' at 75 mph. A full sized ICE car normally will get about 1/3 of that at 75 mph.

    So, you're really $2.25 a gallon equivalent.
     
    • Like x 3
  13. Mattzilla

    Mattzilla Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2016
    Messages:
    335
    Location:
    Ocean Park, WA
    You will still have battery degradation.
     
  14. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,768
    Location:
    Greenville, SC
    Not caused by the 100% charge though.
     
  15. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    3,371
    Location:
    Redmond, WA
    Yes, but surely you're not driving 40k miles/year while SuperCharging, are you?

    That would be 18000kWh charging per year. It would mean at least 200 hours per year sitting in front of a SuperCharger.

    If that's the case... dude... sell your car. Immediately. Spend that time with your family!
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  16. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,217
    Location:
    Los Angeles
  17. realvvk

    realvvk Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Messages:
    46
    Location:
    Philadelphia
    How DO we know our cars' build date? Any way to tell?
     
  18. NikeWings

    NikeWings Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    1,846
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    FREE has far surpassed the magical "new and improved" that previously worked so well to move product. Convert your insanity into discovering how to market FREE to your own powerful advantage. Tesla discovered its power while trying to solve another problem. Its too delicious (as they say in marketing land) to be eliminated forever, but carefully controlled and/or scarce usage will be a very valuable tool. And they know it.
     
    • Love x 1
  19. Mattzilla

    Mattzilla Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2016
    Messages:
    335
    Location:
    Ocean Park, WA
    On the southwestern Washington coast, we pay $0.065 per kWh - almost half the cost of the national average of $0.12. Six and a half cents is worth paying in the comfort of my own home when the alternative is sitting in front of a Supercharger for 30 minutes to an hour for "free." Maybe we have different definitions, but to me that ain't free at all.
     
  20. brkaus

    brkaus Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,797
    Every morning I'm happy that I switched to the S100D from the S90D with free supercharging.

    Yes, there are a lot of unknowns with paid supercharging. But realistically where I live it just doesn't matter that much. I'm not about to drive 20 miles each way for a fill up (unless there is something super cool next to the charger).
     

Share This Page