Pure BEV Dogma

[dpeilow]

For EVs to start making serious inroads with the public, they'll need to shrink an S230 to the size of a BMW 3 Series and shrink its price to 35k before incentives, because I bet incentives will dry up by then.

That ain't gonna happen overnight. Infact, I can't see it happening in 5 years. So I'll buy my bridge and drive electric 90% of the time until then. Then, once the price point is reached and the infrastructure has matured and the losers of that battle been shaken out, this generation of ER-EVs can be sold on to people only willing or able to spend 15-20k on a car, and so on.

 

[rabar10]

The internal combustion engine is an architectural flaw unto itself, never mind the hacky kludges like transmissions that go with it.

Does the same also apply to the steam engine, or the cotton gin?

Describing the ICE as an architectural flaw undermines your basic point as I understand it, which is that better alternatives exist today.

 

[JRP3]

I think he means sticking in outdated complex technology is an architectural flaw. Similar to putting a steam engine in an ICE vehicle because you don't trust the ICE.

 

[Robert.Boston]

@dpeilow: I agree with you. If the world was starting from a clean sheet of paper, today, the hybrid might be too complicated to justify. But companies like BMW have exquisitely refined ICEs available that can slot in to fill the deficiencies of the currently economic battery capabilities. Until the battery technology matures, this "bridge" strategy makes sense for incumbents. Fisker? Not so sure. Tesla made the right call as a new company to stay clear of hybrids, where the incumbents have huge strategic advantages, and focus on the one area where few incumbents dared to go: pure BEV.

But I won't criticize someone for getting a hybrid or PHEV. The current state of the EV technology doesn't meet everyone's reasonable driving needs, and it doesn't meet the economic requirements of a larger group. Eliminate when possible, reduce where elimination isn't possible.

 

[jerry33]

Bridges may help, but I'm not sure they do. While some think hybrids (in all varieties) are the only way to save oil on a larger scale, I'm not expecting too much from it in the long run (even though on an individual level it always makes sense to give mpg a very high priority, and it is nice to have these options). On the downside, it may create a distraction for innovation and resource allocation, and reduce support for long-range EVs and fast charging (as currently "too expensive" or so).

I'm not so sure about that. I think that for many folks small steps are the only way they will ever make the transition. I started with a 2001 Prius. Then I purchased a second Prius (2004) dumping the horrible VW TDI at the same time (the most disappointing car I've ever had). I'm now on-track to get a Model S to replace the 2004 Prius--although from an economic point of view I could easily drive that car for at least another ten years, but I really don't like giving money to the oil companies. Okay, I don't like giving money to the electric companies either but I'd rather give less money to the electric company than more to the oil companies. The 2001 only has 90,000 miles so there's a lot of life left (and there is significant resistance to replacing it with an EV, an attitude which I fully expect to change once there is a Tesla in the driveway).

I'm not sure I would be purchasing and electric car if I didn't have the experience with the Prius. This is because the most frequent question I get is "what about the battery". In the Prius the battery is basically a non-issue. I fully expect that it will be the same for the Tesla (or any other mainstream EV for that matter). Without the Prius experience, battery life would likely be a big hurdle for me to overcome.

What I'm most looking forward to with the Tesla is not having to go to a Toyota dealer for service. For me that ruins the Prius experience.

Lifestyle impact -- How much does fuel cost affect a 2004 Prius owner.

KEY: Gas = Actual amount spent. Miles = Miles driven. $/mile = Gas/Miles


12 months prior to Oct 2004
Gas: $466.13 Miles: 13,333 $/mile: $0.0350
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $559.37


12 months prior to Oct 2005
Gas: $686.77 Miles: 16,631 $/mile: $0.0413
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $660.71


12 months prior to Oct 2006
Gas: $708.38 Miles: 14,716 $/mile: $0.0481
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $770.19


12 months prior to Oct 2007
Gas: $825.08 Miles: 17,963 $/mile: $0.0459
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $734.92


12 months prior to Oct 2008
Gas: $889.01 Miles: 15,855 $/mile: $0.0561
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $897.14


12 months prior to Oct 2009
Gas: $774.33 Miles: 20,641 $/mile: $0.0375
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $600.23


12 months prior to Oct 2010
Gas: $613.65 Miles: 14,589 $/mile: $0.0421
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $673.00


12 months prior to Oct 2011
Gas: $522.04 Miles: 10,606 $/mile: $0.0511
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $817.71


Up till March 23, 2012
Gas: $385.03 Miles: 7,129 $/mile: $0.0540
Cost of gas based on 16,000 miles: $864.14

 

[DuncanWatson]

Before we see an effect on oil and CO2, a huge number of electric cars will have to be sold. In this regard, I think what matters is the "direct path". Bridges may help, but I'm not sure they do. While some think hybrids (in all varieties) are the only way to save oil on a larger scale, I'm not expecting too much from it in the long run (even though on an individual level it always makes sense to give mpg a very high priority, and it is nice to have these options). On the downside, it may create a distraction for innovation and resource allocation, and reduce support for long-range EVs and fast charging (as currently "too expensive" or so).

Is this "dogmatic"? Or the opposite? Obviously something even experts disagree on, yet I feel confident in this position as simply being "realistic". I'd hope that even if based on my personal situation I'd have to choose a Volt or hybrid, I'd still primarily support pure EVs otherwise.

I think PHEVs have their place. Many Volt drivers are barely using any gas at all. That is a much better outcome than is possible with the prius hybrid model. I am happy with any plug-in hybrid, it is at least better than the alternative of an ICE only vehicle.

I personally want a pure EV as the maintenance is also simpler. Plus living in the PNW my base power is hydro.

 

[vfx]

However got carried away a bit there. Palatial office plus surprise that GM will build a plugin?....

The 60 minutes episode that aired the week after Elon's interview was with Chrysler's new CEO Sergio Marchionne. While interviewed in his office near the auto engineers in Auburn Hill Mich, he pointed at a building across the way and said, that building's entire top floor was the CEOs. They leave it empty now for tours.

http://content.usatoday.com/communi...s-looks-at-fiatchryslers-marchionne-tonight/1

The word palatial is entirely believable.

 

[daniel]

... Similar to putting a steam engine in an ICE vehicle because you don't trust the ICE.

I met a guy who was a big advocate for steam engines in cars. Apparently there is no longer any technological advantage to an ICE over steam. New steam designs have a compressed air tank that can run the car for the minute or two it takes to build up a head of steam, so you can get in and drive immediately, and this guy claimed steam is more efficient, cleaner, and can burn cheaper fuels. But the auto industry is too committed to the more complicated, less efficient, more expensive, and dirtier ICE.

I did my best to convince him that electric is better than either. But of course, range was an issue for him. For now, liquid fuels allow greater range than batteries.

 

[jerry33]

I always thought that the main problem with steam was that if you don't religiously do the maintenance, the boiler blows up.

 

[Norbert]

2011 -- 66.9 mpg 11,272 miles

When comparing a Prius' 50 mpg to a Volt's 122 mpg, as was done in this discussion directly an indirectly, we shouldn't forget that the Volt needs electricity additionally to achieve this milage, whereas the Prius does it from gas alone. For EVs, electricity will eventually come from renewables, but Volt if understood as a "bridge", use electricity (usually, unless you buy solar panels for that purpose) before it becomes mainly reusable. So regarding a Volt that also counts (in general) as an environmental factor, even though of course not as oil consumption.

 

[JRP3]

I met a guy who was a big advocate for steam engines in cars. Apparently there is no longer any technological advantage to an ICE over steam. New steam designs have a compressed air tank that can run the car for the minute or two it takes to build up a head of steam, so you can get in and drive immediately, and this guy claimed steam is more efficient, cleaner, and can burn cheaper fuels.

Supposedly the Doble steam car solved some of the startup issues. http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/jay-leno/vintage/jay-leno-and-his-doble-steam-cars

 

[GSP]

Just don't call it an EV :wink:

OK, but only if everyone quits calling individual cells "batteries.".

GSP

 

[JRP3]

OK, but only if everyone quits calling individual cells "batteries.".

GSP

I'm fine with that, but what about this? :tongue:

 

[GSP]

It won't be easy, will it?

GSP

PS. BTW, I just noticed this car is in the *cough* "EV" forum.

 

[JRP3]

Is there a hybrid forum?

 

[stopcrazypp]

It won't be easy, will it?

GSP

PS. BYW, I just noticed this car is in the *cough* "EV" forum.

The Plug-in Prius thread is in here too. Technically a hybrid is an "EV" too (as in HEV).

Depends on what if you are using the technical definition of EV (any car with even a partial electric drivetrain) or the colloquial one (EV = Electric car = BEV; GM is trying to change it to EV = Electric car = BEV or EREV).

 

[JRP3]

Depends on what if you are using the technical definition of EV (any car with even a partial electric drivetrain)

That seems more like the technical definition of a hybrid. Just adding an electric motor and battery to an ICE doesn't make it an EV, any more than adding an ICE to an EV makes it an ICE. I think the original Prius was called a hybrid, not a HEV.

 

[jerry33]

Because the Prius was the first, they didn't have the acronym yet.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That seems more like the technical definition of a hybrid. Just adding an electric motor and battery to an ICE doesn't make it an EV, any more than adding an ICE to an EV makes it an ICE. I think the original Prius was called a hybrid, not a HEV.

I know the HEV term was already around when the Prius launched in the US. The PNGV program already established that terminology. Here's a report from 2001 about the PNGV that mentions "hybrid-electric-vehicle":
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10180&page=2

 

[JRP3]

So they got it wrong fairly early :biggrin: