Push for Autopilot 3.0 hardware now or wait for 4.0?

[Garlan Garner]

We have had our Model 3 for 14 months now and are still loving it. Already have 22k miles on it (with zero issues), even though I work from home most days, since it has become our preferred vehicle by far. The latest Autopilot just did a great job driving me to Tahoe and back on the AP 2.5 hardware it came with. Since we bought Full Self Driving we are owed the computer upgrade but I’m wondering if it’s best not to push for it as Tesla talked (briefly) about their next version 10 months ago already at their Autonomy Day. I wonder if Tesla has been slow to do the FSD upgrades because they’d prefer to deploy the next version and will owners care (ie it will be more than just a cost reduction)?

My car came with AP 2.5 hardware.

My name wasn't being called to upgrade to hw3.0 so it was recommended to me to go to the Tesla Service Center and have the air in my tire checked.

I pulled in and they checked my tire pressure and told me "Hey...did you know you were eligible for the hw3.0 upgrade". I said with astonishment...."By golly no".

I've been enjoying it ever since.

 

[smatthew]

My car came with AP 2.5 hardware.

My name wasn't being called to upgrade to hw3.0 so it was recommended to me to go to the Tesla Service Center and have the air in my tire checked.

I pulled in and they checked my tire pressure and told me "Hey...did you know you were eligible for the hw3.0 upgrade". I said with astonishment...."By golly no".

I've been enjoying it ever since.

And I bet you (and the rest of us early FSD buyers) will have a similar experience when hw4.0 comes out. They'll just pop out the old computer, put a new one in, and send us on our way.

 

[rdskill]

Now I have to wait for HW 4 for FS-OR-D (offroad). Pull the trigger on it when it comes standard in the Cybertruck. FSD will be common by then so I am guessing AP to FSORD will be around $3K.

 

[Atari2600]

Now I have to wait for HW 4 for FS-OR-D (offroad). Pull the trigger on it when it comes standard in the Cybertruck. FSD will be common by then so I am guessing AP to FSORD will be around $3K.

Do you think this will work with the apocalypse package? Which of course includes a bed mounted auto turret and recon drones?

 

[smatthew]

Do you think this will work with the apocalypse package? Which of course includes a bed mounted auto turret and recon drones?

That's ridiculous. We all know the apocalypse package includes a not-a-flamethrower.

 

[whatthe2]

My car came with AP 2.5 hardware.

My name wasn't being called to upgrade to hw3.0 so it was recommended to me to go to the Tesla Service Center and have the air in my tire checked.

I pulled in and they checked my tire pressure and told me "Hey...did you know you were eligible for the hw3.0 upgrade". I said with astonishment...."By golly no".

I've been enjoying it ever since.

That’s a good idea. I just scheduled a service appointment and asked if I was eligible for the upgrade yet. They texted back and said I was so made the appointment and got it done.

 

[lascavarian]

That’s a good idea. I just scheduled a service appointment and asked if I was eligible for the upgrade yet. They texted back and said I was so made the appointment and got it done.

This worked for me through a question in the app. They did order the part and confirmed before setting a date. Initally it was for home service then changed to service center. Took 6 hrs at most. No reload of personal settings required but seemed like this "might" be the case for some. Cameras calibrated in about 10 miles. SW seems a tiny bit quicker BUT, running the same SW so no new features (lights or stop signs) at this time. 0 cost. Got air filters changed at the same time which was a charge. Now I wait for new features to show up.

Got to see a Y in the parking lot between an X and 3 Never entered the facility, got a loaner S P90D. All done from the parking lot via your phone via QR codes, txt msgs and voice calls. Take your own pen just to be sure, use gloves and mask IMO.

 

[SergeyUser]

The main limiting factor for Tesla FSD right now is software. So there is no point in having even faster hardware, if Tesla is (as per Tesla's own admission) not utilizing v3 even at 50%.

 

[DanCar]

The main limiting factor for Tesla FSD right now is software. So there is no point in having even faster hardware, if Tesla is (as per Tesla's own admission) not utilizing v3 even at 50%.

If you listen to Karpathy a lot of tradeoffs have to be made in the software because of computation budget. If there is a bigger computation budget then fewer tradeoffs in the software.

 

[Atari2600]

If you listen to Karpathy a lot of tradeoffs have to be made in the software because of computation budget. If there is a bigger computation budget then fewer tradeoffs in the software.

Was the HW 3.0 computation budget due to the S and X being air cooled? If so a newer model designed for water cooling could do really well. It seems like they designed it for the lowest common denominator, the S and X air cooling.

 

[DanCar]

Here is Elon on autonomy day, saying HW4 is coming in about 2 years, so that would be in 11 months. We all know Tesla is typically late.

1:43:15 into the video.

 

[SergeyUser]

If you listen to Karpathy a lot of tradeoffs have to be made in the software because of computation budget. If there is a bigger computation budget then fewer tradeoffs in the software.

I did. This was in a reference to 2.5, not 3.0.

 

[DrtyJrze]

I love this place.

No, hold out for HW 5.0 or, better yet, 7.0...

 

[DanCar]

I did. This was in a reference to 2.5, not 3.0.

Same class of issues will exist on HW3 and HW4. There won't be enough computational budget for 10+ years. Compromises will have to be made.

 

[TomB985]

I've noticed almost no difference in autopilot behavior after upgrading to HW 3.0 last month. If all that extra computing horsepower didn't make a difference, I'm not sure what waiting for another hardware evolution would accomplish. I expect the difference between 2.5 and 3.0 to increase in the coming months, but I couldn't imagine a logical case to keep waiting. You might be waiting awhile.

 

[Knightshade]

I've noticed almost no difference in autopilot behavior after upgrading to HW 3.0 last month.

Why would there be? It's still largely running the same code (with the exception of additional visualizations displayed, and much more recently, the stoplight/stopsign stuff).

The foundational re-write designed for HW3 native stuff is still forthcoming.

 

[SergeyUser]

Same class of issues will exist on HW3 and HW4. There won't be enough computational budget for 10+ years. Compromises will have to be made.

It will probably be in the future, but right now it is not. Software is heavily behind the hardware. I mean, if you are using just 10%, you can at least consume another 50%+ before starting to make compromises. Clearly it is not the case. The software is just 'stupid', in a sense. The problem is that Tesla don't know how to teach the AI to make it learn faster. And this is clearly not limited by the software within the car.

 

[kaffine]

I wouldn't count on HW4 being offered for current HW2.5 or HW3 cars. I would guess there will be improved sensors by then.

 

[SergeyUser]

I wouldn't count on HW4 being offered for current HW2.5 or HW3 cars. I would guess there will be improved sensors by then.

It could be. However, Tesla never indicated it would be the case in a near future. There are no known issues attributed to sensors.

 

[Knightshade]

It could be. However, Tesla never indicated it would be the case in a near future. There are no known issues attributed to sensors.

Other than an inability to see low/close to the vehicle.

Which is probably not a huge issue in highway driving, but a fairly big one in the long run for things like enhanced summon and park-seek modes...

(there's also some argument the range of the side cameras might be insufficient for cross-traffic at speed- at ~75 mph there's less than 2 seconds from when an object is at max range of those cameras until it's in the same physical space you are- but I dunno how "hard" that range cutoff really is)