Pushing out my delivery to get AP 2.0

[gsxdsm]

Tesla will bend you over backwards with that red statement. Have you seen their trade-in estimates?

That's what I'm wondering. Would it be a direct "Trade-in value vs. remaining lease obligation" calculation? Or is there another method in use since it's an upgrade? For example I know several companies allow you to get out of a lease early if you are moving to a more expensive vehicle. Not sure if Tesla is similar.

Has anyone executed on this yet?

 

[Max*]

Well okay, I concede, if we are assuming that Musk lies then sure it is just speculation.

Can you define "assume", because I'm not assuming anything, just a list of a few items off the top of my head:
-4 port USB
-Internal hard drive for media
-No major changes for a year, and then he released the 70D, P90DL, and a few other things
-Model X timeline
-Model X starts shipping 2 months ago, but no one except Founders have yet to receive their Model X
-Several months for AP
-691HP for the P85D
-0-60 times with/without 1 ft rollout
-10.9 second trap time for the P90DL
-People may add the garage parking/meet you at the door stuff which is supposedly coming in 7.1, and I was a big proponent that it's going to happen, but for whatever reason they pulled all that info out of the website, and it's now gone, so maybe they were right.

Would you feel better if I [sarcastically] said that Elon Musk has never mislead, instead of lied?


His twitter comment was 1 word, same. I could interpret that, right now there are no differences between AP on the S and X (which is true, the founders car were delivered with 1 camera). But when production starts, the Sigs might have 2 cameras and rear radar for all you know.

 

[HankLloydRight]

You can't time the stock market, and you certainly can't time feature releases from Tesla Motors. AP 2.0 (whatever it is) is WAY further out than 90 days.

Either buy now, or wait it out. But don't play scammy games with the "Happiness Guarantee" just because you want the newest features. And if you do, expect Tesla to not lose any money on the deal and fully extract it out of you for the privilege, and then some. They're not stupid people.

 

[Canuck]

It's only speculation if you assume that Elon Musk lied on Twitter when directly asked that question.

I don't see it as a lie. In my view, it has a very simple explanation. As I said in another thread, Elon said that the Model S and X will have the same AP hardware and capabilities so it's safe to assume that when the Model X rolls of the line with more than one front facing camera, so will the Model S (meaning same hardware and capabilities). People have turned that statement around to mean the opposite, being that the Model X will have the same one forward facing camera as the Model S but that doesn't make sense to me. I think some people just wanted to interpret it that way (cognitive dissonance) but what he was really saying is that the vehicles will keep up with each other when it comes to autopilot, which only makes sense, at least in my opinion.

In my opinion, Tesla put a plate over the founders' extra camera in order to keep this secret since people would have held off ordering a Model S, and some would have even cancelled orders, if they saw that the Model X came with more cameras than the Model S since that means the Model S's autopilot hardware upgrade is imminent. I bet the founders' vehicles will go into service to have their plates removed (at the appropriate time) which seem to me to be in place simply to cover the other camera we can clearly see in the pictures of the Model X.

Again, only time will tell but at least it's soon now to see if my theory is correct since deliveries begin early 2016 and I doubt we'll see the same plate on production vehicles, especially when they don't show it in the picture of the Model X. I sure wouldn't want to order a Model X that shows clearly in the picture two (actually three!) front facing cameras only to get one. I can see the long thread and threats of lawsuits that would result from that!

I also can't imagine the Model S will be coming off the line with one camera when Elon said the Model S and X will have the same AP hardware and capabilities so my prediction is early 2016 for new auto pilot 2.0 hardware on the Model S.

That's just a guess, though. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time. But I think my reasoning makes some sense and it explains Elon's words without saying he "lied". I don't even think he was trying to be deceptive. He was letting everyone know that the Model X and S will have the same autopilot hardware and capabilities. It's as simple as that to me. He's not in the same mindset as a recent purchaser who just got a car with 1.0 and doesn't want to see advancements. He's always thinking in future tense.

 

[Johan]

Current software suggests that there is already hardware with the cars being sold now for some pretty neat AP features. What I'm saying is the current hardware supports a lot more than the current software. I think the following features will appear with the current hardware:
(please check in a year and see if I'm correct or not):

- Pedestrian detection
- Virtual lanes (I'm not sure what this feature is exactly but I've seen references to it)
- Detection of construction areas
- Red light and stop sign detection
- Road type/class and road surface analysis
- Junction mode (seen references to "Junction" allover the code) suggesting a tie-in with navigation/destination plotting, since the system would have to know a destination to be able to navigate a junction per the wishes of the driver)
- Further improvements to the "moderate speed ahead of curve" function people are reporting is there (likely more rudimentary now than it will be)

 

[Max*]

Current software suggests that there is already hardware with the cars being sold now for some pretty neat AP features. What I'm saying is the current hardware supports a lot more than the current software. I think the following features will appear with the current hardware:
(please check in a year and see if I'm correct or not):

- Pedestrian detection
- Virtual lanes (I'm not sure what this feature is exactly but I've seen references to it)
- Detection of construction areas
- Red light and stop sign detection
- Road type/class and road surface analysis
- Junction mode (seen references to "Junction" allover the code) suggesting a tie-in with navigation/destination plotting, since the system would have to know a destination to be able to navigate a junction per the wishes of the driver)
- Further improvements to the "moderate speed ahead of curve" function people are reporting is there (likely more rudimentary now than it will be)

There could be a lot more than that
-It can tell you if you're tailgating outside of AP mode (following too closely and will rear end if the car stops abruptly)
-Parallel parking in tighter spots (come on, 20'?)
-Stall parking (supposedly coming)
-Rear cross traffic alert (sure, it wont be radar, but you can do SOMETHING with the ultrasonics, something is usually better than nothing)
-etc.

Also:

- Junction mode (seen references to "Junction" allover the code) suggesting a tie-in with navigation/destination plotting, since the system would have to know a destination to be able to navigate a junction per the wishes of the driver)

The car can't change lanes? Unless you mean you're in the middle lane and the road divides and the car chooses the correct split?

 

[RockinWithKids]

I order in Oct but asked for a 2016 VIN. Estimated delivery was late Jan/Early Feb.

I have a strong suspicion that AP 2.0 and other hardware changes are right around the corner - I've just asked my DS to push my delivery out further.

Painful as I want the car RIGHT NOW, but I'd hate to take delivery and then see an announcement a week later.

Anyone else doing the same?

Also, since I'm leasing, I've considered just taking delivery and then executing the Happiness Guarantee within 90 days - however I'm not sure how much it would cost. Has anyone done it or inquired? My DS hasn't replied back yet.

My .02... If you think v2 hardware is around the corner, push your build out as far you can. Then if new hardware happens pull it forward.

 

[Johan]

The car can't change lanes? Unless you mean you're in the middle lane and the road divides and the car chooses the correct split?

I intepreted junction as when ou're coming up to a complex intersection to be navigated, how can the car choose "the correct split" if destination isn't set?

Now I don't know this, I just saw references to tsrJunctionStatus etc. while looking around.

Anyhow, having auto pilot actively use destination data as set by the user, if my interpretations is correct, is a pretty big step up from drivers assist toward more automated driving to a destination.

 

[Canuck]

Current software suggests that there is already hardware with the cars being sold now for some pretty neat AP features.

The current hardware will never allow for AP to be used through intersection. That cuts off the vast majority of roads. Nothing software wise will ever change that, in my opinion, for the reasons set out in this thread:

Autopilot 2.0 Not Imminent Based On Production Model X Design Studio [Speculation] - Page 4

Elon Musk knows this which I why I am predicting they want 2.0 out right away. Another camera is cheap. To fall behind other car manufacturers over a very cheap piece of hardware makes no sense.

 

[Johan]

The current hardware will never allow for AP to be used through intersection. That cuts off the vast majority of roads. Nothing software wise will ever change that, in my opinion, for the reasons set out in this thread:

Autopilot 2.0 Not Imminent Based On Production Model X Design Studio [Speculation] - Page 4

Elon Musk knows this which I why I am predicting they want 2.0 out right away. Another camera is cheap. To fall behind other car manufacturers over a very cheap piece of hardware makes no sense.

Thanks for pointing me there, makes sense. My guess was just from having a look at some variables.

 

[brianman]

-People may add the garage parking/meet you at the door stuff which is supposedly coming in 7.1, and I was a big proponent that it's going to happen, but for whatever reason they pulled all that info out of the website, and it's now gone, so maybe they were right.

Sigh. First wifi hotspot silently cut, now this.

(Thanks for calling it out, I hadn't noticed.)

 

[Johan]

Sigh. First wifi hotspot silently cut, now this.

(Thanks for calling it out, I hadn't noticed.)

Sigh. In my book postponing automated self parking on private property was a bit more important than WiFi hotspot

 

[brianman]

Sigh. In my book postponing automated self parking on private property was a bit more important than WiFi hotspot

You may laugh, but wifi hotspot is one of the things that sold me on the car back when. At the time it was one of the "Tesla gets it" features. It's become a "Tesla doesn't give a ___" feature and a "Tesla is behind" feature. Both of which make me unhappy.

Parking on private property -- was something listed as a feature when I purchased the vehicle. IMO, removing it from the website perhaps affects future buyers but shouldn't affect those of us that purchased the vehicle with this feature clearly advertised as part of what we were buying.

- - - Updated - - -

Sigh. In my book postponing automated self parking on private property was a bit more important than WiFi hotspot

And to be clear: postponing is not my concern. Cancelling (which the website changes suggest) is a concern.

 

[Johan]

You may laugh, but wifi hotspot is one of the things that sold me on the car back when. At the time it was one of the "Tesla gets it" features. It's become a "Tesla doesn't give a ___" feature and a "Tesla is behind" feature. Both of which make me unhappy.

Parking on private property -- was something listed as a feature when I purchased the vehicle. IMO, removing it from the website perhaps affects future buyers but shouldn't affect those of us that purchased the vehicle with this feature clearly advertised as part of what we were buying.

Yeah, I guess. But one of the good things about no WiFi hotspot is they haven't started charging for data traffic. Which they maybe would have had to do otherwise, which had been annyoing, made them seem cheap ("non-premium") and frankly would have been a big hassle for them. This coupled with all phones now being good at thethering and every always bringing a phone makes the feature quickly moot.

 

[green1]

wifi hotspot is actually a feature I laugh at in other cars. They charge more for the feature monthly than it would cost for your own data plan, and can only be used in the car. Who in their right mind would pay for that?

 

[Johan]

wifi hotspot is actually a feature I laugh at in other cars. They charge more for the feature monthly than it would cost for your own data plan, and can only be used in the car. Who in their right mind would pay for that?

You're so "mild". You just said what I said, only with slightly more of an agressive tone.

 

[gsxdsm]

You can't time the stock market, and you certainly can't time feature releases from Tesla Motors. AP 2.0 (whatever it is) is WAY further out than 90 days.

Either buy now, or wait it out. But don't play scammy games with the "Happiness Guarantee" just because you want the newest features. And if you do, expect Tesla to not lose any money on the deal and fully extract it out of you for the privilege, and then some. They're not stupid people.

How do you know it is WAY further out? I spoke with someone within Tesla (engineering) that indicated "new hardware" was right around the corner (as is 7.1).

I'm not trying to play "scammy games". Isn't the entire point of the Happiness Guarantee to make sure that customers get exactly what they want? If I buy the car and a month later something even better comes out, I'd be pretty unhappy. Providing a way to upgrade seems like a good way to make me happy. Not sure how that is scammy at all, can you please explain?

 

[green1]

You're so "mild". You just said what I said, only with slightly more of an agressive tone.

Sorry, I have a tendency to speak my mind....

- - - Updated - - -

How do you know it is WAY further out? I spoke with someone within Tesla (engineering) that indicated "new hardware" was right around the corner (as is 7.1).

Keep in mind that AP was imminent for over a year before it materialized, the MX was just about to be released for longer than that, and there's a long string of these things with Tesla.

Even if new hardware IS about to happen, software to support it in a way that makes it do anything noticeably more advanced than the current stuff is probably at least a year further out.

Honestly, if you're on a 3 year lease anyway, it's likely that your lease will be up before there's more than a tiny difference between what an AP1 and AP2 car can do.

 

[HankLloydRight]

How do you know it is WAY further out? I spoke with someone within Tesla (engineering) that indicated "new hardware" was right around the corner (as is 7.1).

I don't know any more or less than anyone else here. If you want to believe what someone in "engineering" told you, go right ahead and believe it. But "right around the corner" in Tesla terms is WAY further out. That we can attest to (examples above).

I'm not trying to play "scammy games". Isn't the entire point of the Happiness Guarantee to make sure that customers get exactly what they want? If I buy the car and a month later something even better comes out, I'd be pretty unhappy. Providing a way to upgrade seems like a good way to make me happy. Not sure how that is scammy at all, can you please explain?

Because it's a "good faith" thing. You're buying the car now, with full intention of invoking the "Happiness Guarantee" if TM comes out with something newer/better within 90 days. It's not because you are actually unhappy with the car you have. If some buyer of a Model S is genuinely not happy with the car they got, they can return it. That's the intention of the HG. It should not be dependent on what new features Tesla introduces after you bought the car. Day X you're happy with the car. If on Day Y Tesla introduces some feature you want, you're not happy with the car. Doesn't make logical sense. And you're planning on doing that even before you bought the car. That's what's scammy about it, and quite disingenuous and not in the "good faith" that Tesla is putting out there with the HG.

 

[Canuck]

Even if new hardware IS about to happen, software to support it in a way that makes it do anything noticeably more advanced than the current stuff is probably at least a year further out.

Agreed.