Pushing out my delivery to get AP 2.0

[gsxdsm]

I don't know any more or less than anyone else here. If you want to believe what someone in "engineering" told you, go right ahead and believe it. But "right around the corner" in Tesla terms is WAY further out. That we can attest to (examples above).



Because it's a "good faith" thing. You're buying the car now, with full intention of invoking the "Happiness Guarantee" if TM comes out with something newer/better within 90 days. It's not because you are actually unhappy with the car you have. If some buyer of a Model S is genuinely not happy with the car they got, they can return it. That's the intention of the HG. It should not be dependent on what new features Tesla introduces after you bought the car. Day X you're happy with the car. If on Day Y Tesla introduces some feature you want, you're not happy with the car. Doesn't make logical sense. And you're planning on doing that even before you bought the car. That's what's scammy about it, and quite disingenuous and not in the "good faith" that Tesla is putting out there with the HG.

Two points:

1. Why the quotes around engineering? Are you doubting that I actually spoke to an engineer on the team?
2. Your point about the intention of HG is wrong. You said:

"If some buyer of a Model S is genuinely not happy with the car they got, they can return it. That's the intention of the HG."

If that was the case, why do they allow upgrades?

Here is the quote from the site:

" Upgrading early is no problem if you want to do that, but there is a pass-through fee to cover the new vs used value difference."

https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/significantly-improved-leasing-tesla-us-bank

How do you interpret that as being disingenuous? I'm honestly curious - I'm one of Tesla's biggest defenders (see the whole 691hp thead) and I would not want to cause undue harm, but in this case it seems like a clear case of Tesla making an offer to allow upgrades on leases (for a fee) and invoking that privilege if something newer/better comes out? Please tell me how that is scammy?

 

[Zybane]

If I was a betting man, I would say no Autopilot 2.0 hardware for any Tesla model before Q3 calendar 2016.

 

[Canuck]

If I was a betting man, I would say no Autopilot 2.0 hardware for any Tesla model before Q3 calendar 2016.

Sounds about right from someone with with a 90D on order!

 

[Zybane]

Sounds about right from someone with with a 90D on order!

More so based off of how long it took AP 1.0 to come and the autopilot hardware manufacturer saying a customer is getting the hardware "sometime" in 2016. Elon's tweet about needing to hire more Autopilot engineers too. It takes time to implement all of this.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Two points:

1. Why the quotes around engineering? Are you doubting that I actually spoke to an engineer on the team?
2. Your point about the intention of HG is wrong. You said:

1. Because what someone in engineering says is most of the time from their POV. In reality, engineering might think something is done and ready, but it's still 1+ years from release due to testing, Q&A, marketing, beta release/testing, more marketing, etc.

2. Because you're not really "upgrading" to a higher trim model (battery size, "D", etc) -- you're just "side-grading" to get the newest features, which might technically include an upgrade so you're staying within the letter of the guarantee, but I think not really within the spirit in which it's offered.

 

[brkaus]

If you just turn your car in for the happiness guarantee, they get the car back and keep all deposits/payments made. That's a pretty good cost right there.

If you keep it just over a month. Due at signing plus first payment is about 10% of the car cost. Then you have sales tax on top, depending on your jurisdiction.

It's hassle free, but not necessarily inexpensive.

 

[Canuck]

More so based off of how long it took AP 1.0 to come and the autopilot hardware manufacturer saying a customer is getting the hardware "sometime" in 2016. Elon's tweet about needing to hire more Autopilot engineers too. It takes time to implement all of this.

Not true. You're mixing apples and oranges (or hardware and software). AP 1.0 hardware came out without any announcement at all. So how could it have taken long? No one had any idea it was even coming out. I was here posting and researched all about the car before I bought mine and I can't recall any mention of it. It just showed up on vehicles and shortly after that it was announced. Then it took a year for the software.

I posted earlier in this thread that I agree software for AP 2.0 is a year away. That's a totally separate issue from AP 2.0 hardware. So, if you're going by history as an example, and Elon's tweet, then AP 2.0 hardware is already late. The Engineers are needed for the software -- not the hardware. The hardware is already on the Model X according to the published pictures.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Not true. You're mixing apples and oranges (or hardware and software). AP 1.0 hardware came out without any announcement at all. So how could it have taken long? No one had any idea it was even coming out. I was here posting and researched all about the car before I bought mine and I can't recall any mention of it. It just showed up on vehicles and shortly after that it was announced. Then it took a year for the software.

Several months before AP hardware and before AWD just showed up, there was that thread here on TMC where someone found the AP testing mule car with sensors, wires, and logitech cameras all around it, parked at a supercharger. I think several people in that thread surmised that this was AP hardware being tested (I think the other theory was AWD and/or Model X weight/drive testing). So there was some sense that AP was on it's way here.

 

[Canuck]

Several months before AP hardware and before AWD just showed up, there was that thread here on TMC where someone found the AP testing mule car with sensors, wires, and logitech cameras all around it, parked at a supercharger. I think several people in that thread surmised that this was AP hardware being tested (I think the other theory was AWD and/or Model X weight/drive testing). So there was some sense that AP was on it's way here.

That does ring a bell. Still doesn't change my overall point though.

 

[vitaliy]

I just realized that it may actually happen. Not necessarily AP 2.0, but major changes. Basically during last quarter of each year they are maximizing # of produced car, so there is no way they are going to implement major changes. Then in late December - early January design/engineering team will be ready with of next set of major changes they have worked on for last few month.

 

[Canuck]

I just realized that it may actually happen. Not necessarily AP 2.0, but major changes. Basically during last quarter of each year they are maximizing # of produced car, so there is no way they are going to implement major changes. Then in late December - early January design/engineering team will be ready with of next set of major changes they have worked on for last few month.

The only fact we know, however, is that we won't know until it actually rolls off the line. Everything else is just speculation. But it is fun to speculate.

 

[gsxdsm]

I just realized that it may actually happen. Not necessarily AP 2.0, but major changes. Basically during last quarter of each year they are maximizing # of produced car, so there is no way they are going to implement major changes. Then in late December - early January design/engineering team will be ready with of next set of major changes they have worked on for last few month.

Yep.

Internally at Tesla the currently shipping cars are known as running the "legacy" hw platform and are in "sustaining" mode.

 

[choatie88]

I got the full terms & conditions for the happiness guarantee - there are no provisions for the upgrade (I didn't ask for them, but they're not in the standard agreement). Says you cannot order or take delivery of any Tesla for 6 months after returning the vehicle under the happiness guarantee.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I got the full terms & conditions for the happiness guarantee - there are no provisions for the upgrade (I didn't ask for them, but they're not in the standard agreement). Says you cannot order or take delivery of any Tesla for 6 months after returning the vehicle under the happiness guarantee.

Ah ha! Just like the Pre-paid Annual Service Plan contract doesn't mention or define "hardware upgrades" even though it was clearly sold that way for a few years.

I guess this is Tesla's way of doing business.

 

[choatie88]

I got the full terms & conditions for the happiness guarantee - there are no provisions for the upgrade (I didn't ask for them, but they're not in the standard agreement). Says you cannot order or take delivery of any Tesla for 6 months after returning the vehicle under the happiness guarantee.

Also the leasing company keeps the down payment on the lease up to $5k. Not sure about taxes, but they're probably gone too, as the idea is that Tesla pay the lessor (US bank) for the car + any lease termination fees.

It's not scummy at all, just a tactic, and one that Tesla have clearly planned for. The discounts on inventory cars with a few thousand miles are pretty paltry.

 

[Zybane]

Not true. You're mixing apples and oranges (or hardware and software). AP 1.0 hardware came out without any announcement at all. So how could it have taken long? No one had any idea it was even coming out. I was here posting and researched all about the car before I bought mine and I can't recall any mention of it. It just showed up on vehicles and shortly after that it was announced. Then it took a year for the software.

And how is that different than autopilot 2.0? It isn't.

 

[Max*]

And how is that different than autopilot 2.0? It isn't.

There isn't a single production vehicle with AP 2.0 hardware, so it's way to early to jump to that conclusion. Though I would agree, hardware will well predate software, and if they truley have a big push for hardware, than the AP2.0 hardware may be the same as the Semi-Autonomous 1.0 hardware.

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

If you just turn your car in for the happiness guarantee, they get the car back and keep all deposits/payments made. That's a pretty good cost right there.

If you keep it just over a month. Due at signing plus first payment is about 10% of the car cost. Then you have sales tax on top, depending on your jurisdiction.

It's hassle free, but not necessarily inexpensive.

Exactly this. My lease had a $5000 capital cost reduction added onto the first payment, plus a $695 "acquisition fee". The happiness guarantee doesn't return these funds, so Tesla is more than happy to take back the car within 90 days of lease start.

On my lease (in Illinois), the first payment also included sales tax for the full term of the lease. If the OP would be in the same situation, they probably wouldn't get any of the sales tax back from their state.

In my mind, not being able to buy another Tesla for 6 months is not a first order concern.

If I were OP and intent on owning the best autopilot car available, I'd take delivery of AP1.0 ASAP with a lease. If/when AP 2.0 comes out, I'd place another order. When the AP2.0 car is due to arrive, I'd find someone to assume the remainder of the AP1.0 lease. If the happiness guarantee is still in place (i.e. within 90 days of lease start), you'll likely find someone willing to give you an extra downpayment in addition to assuming the remaining lease payments (versus just handing the keys back to Tesla).

 

[gsxdsm]

I decided to not risk the happiness guarantee costs and just be patient. I pushed delivery out to May. Will pull it in if something gets announced. My guess of new hardware announcement is late December or early Jan at earliest and March at the latest. It is so hard to wait longer but I'd rather not regret not waiting a few weeks for 3 years.

 

[benf]

I decided to not risk the happiness guarantee costs and just be patient. I pushed delivery out to May. Will pull it in if something gets announced. My guess of new hardware announcement is late December or early Jan at earliest and March at the latest. It is so hard to wait longer but I'd rather not regret not waiting a few weeks for 3 years.

By this logic you really should not buy a Tesla. Or a smartphone. Or really anything technology related. I hope waiting works out for you, but realistically the only way to be happy with a car like the Tesla is to be happy with the features it has NOW and not look back. This "announcement" could come in 3 months, 6 months, a year, who knows. And most likely, the announcement will be that "X hardware" has been secretly installed in all cars rolling off the line for the last "Y months" in anticipation of "Z software update" that won't be ready for another year. At which point you'd be 2 years in to your lease and could just wait a year to swap out for the latest and greatest anyway.

If you're really patient enough to do it, go for the wait. But it just seems like whenever this magic announcement happens, there will be new rumors about new features and new announcements that you'll regret if you don't wait even longer. That is just a painful way to live.