Q1 2016 Delivery Prediction Competition

[maoing]

Here is the breakdown of Q4 number:
total: 17400
NA: 8400 (insideEVs)
EU: 5300
ROW: 3700

In order to meet Q1 guidance 16000:
NA: 9000 (insideEVs)
EU: 3100 (estimates)
ROW: 3900

It only requires 200 increase from ROW, I believe China should at least contribute 1K more. So beat by 500 is my guess, the total delivery might be between 16500 to 17000. We'll see tomorrow. Even in worst case, a slightly miss, but with 2700 model X delivery and reaffirmation of 1K production rate in Q2 would be more important to WS.

 

[schonelucht]

If you look at March delivery numbers for those European countries that have already reported, they are between 3-5 times higher than the average delivery for the same countries during Jan-Feb. So even taking the low end as a guide would bring us to 3300 once the deliveries from the remaining countries are in.

Don't forget that the numbers in there for the UK are estimates which are (we learned recently) about 50/month too high. Multiply that downward revision with your 3-5 multiplier and you end up awfully close to my estimate. Not saying 3300 is out of the question but we are basically down to only 2 countries who could conceivably deliver such a surprise : Switzerland and the Netherlands.

 

[tinm]

The longer they delay releasing the Q1 deliveries number, the lower I assume the number is.
I'm assuming it's lower than 16000. Fasten seatbelts.

 

[schonelucht]

There is some discussion on the short term thread on this as well. Some see it as a definite positive, some see it as a definite negative. I'd only start being concerned if it takes longer than the promised 3 business days.

 

[austinEV]

The "3 day" rule is not a law. And 2 of them fell on a weekend. And they were super busy with the 3 and presumably deliveries. Just because they are taking their time doesn't mean its good or bad, I fully expect they just need some time to tally them up. I bet it isn't trivial, they have to figure out how many deliveries that were the last few days really delivered vs were planned.

 

[flankspeed8]

I will go on record that I think it will be a slight miss based on slower than expected X ramp-up. Next q should definitely be a beat IMO. Betting the delivery number will be revealed after market close today.

 

[aznt1217]

I will go on record that I think it will be a slight miss based on slower than expected X ramp-up. Next q should definitely be a beat IMO. Betting the delivery number will be revealed after market close today.

This

 

[MikeC]

I fully expect they just need some time to tally them up.

You think they're counting them by hand or what? They usually release them in 1-2 days, even on weekends. If they don't have instantaneous computerized records, I'm a little worried about my investment in this hi-tech company. They're managing to count Model 3 reservations in real-time, I don't see why sales would be much different.

 

[flankspeed8]

You think they're counting them by hand or what? They usually release them in 1-2 days, even on weekends. If they don't have instantaneous computerized records, I'm a little worried about my investment in this hi-tech company. They're managing to count Model 3 reservations in real-time, I don't see why sales would be much different.

I think you mean deliveries? Isn't that the metric they report? I would imagine it could be a little complicated tallying the numbers built, those in transit and those actually delivered when you are dealing with so many different jurisdictions.

I read somewhere that GE used to employ over 40,000 accountants world wide because they have to file taxes and regulatory compliance in every place in the world they have a presence. It is almost to massive to fathom.

 

[MikeC]

I think you mean deliveries? Isn't that the metric they report? I would imagine it could be a little complicated tallying the numbers built, those in transit and those actually delivered when you are dealing with so many different jurisdictions.

I read somewhere that GE used to employ over 40,000 accountants world wide because they have to file taxes and regulatory compliance in every place in the world they have a presence. It is almost to massive to fathom.

"Sales" and "deliveries" are synonymous with respect to what we're talking about here. They don't need to calculate taxes or figure out compliance issues, they just need to look at how many cars they gave to customers this quarter. It really can't be that hard, it's not like they haven't looked at their numbers since December 31 and all of a sudden they have to go through 3 months worth of numbers - it's a cumulative thing and I wouldn't be surprised if they knew day by day how many are delivered.

 

[schonelucht]

they just need to look at how many cars they gave to customers this quarter. It really can't be that hard

I agree, they have the number already. It's more likely that the release needs to be signed of by multiple (high level) executives because it is very material information. I can easily see how those executives had their hands full managing the unexpected model 3 surge and they just haven't gotten to it.

 

[flankspeed8]

And a bigger miss than I thought. 1200 units light. CNBC says Tesla blamed the shortfall on their hubris.....Interesting

 

[dalalsid]

where is the full press release? According to Phil LeBeau on twitter it is due to "parts shortages" - Phil LeBeau on Twitter

 

[flankspeed8]

where is the full press release? According to Phil LeBeau on twitter it is due to "parts shortages" - Phil LeBeau on Twitter

no idea...nothing on their investor site, and no hard news release in Yahoo...

 

[flankspeed8]

TESLA DELIVERS 14,820 VEHICLES IN Q1 2016; ON TRACK FOR FULL-YEAR DELIVERY GUIDANCE

MONDAY, APRIL 4, 2016

Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house. The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.

Because production is now on plan and Q1 orders exceeded Q1 deliveries by a wide margin, with Q1 Model S orders being 45% higher than Q1 last year, Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance. These additional details are being provided because of the unusual circumstances of this quarter and will not typically be provided in quarterly delivery releases going forward. As always, more detailed information will be contained in Tesla’s quarterly shareholder letter.

There may be small changes to the Q1 delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

 

[Fallenone]

OK, we failed on this one too, not so utterly though.

 

[Haddock]

So if the issue was parts for the Model X, why were Model S sales down relative to Q4?

I think they wasted a lot of time fixing quality issues on the Model X and that hurt their overall execution. But they don't want to say that.

Disclosure: Long TSLA.

 

[ggr]

So if the issue was parts for the Model X, why were Model S sales down relative to Q4?

I think they wasted a lot of time fixing quality issues on the Model X and that hurt their overall execution. But they don't want to say that.

Disclosure: Long TSLA.

The build process for a particular car takes at least a couple of days (probably longer for Model X at the time). There were probably many Xs already on the production line before they realized that they wouldn't be able to finish and ship all of them. Remember that almost all manufacturing these days is done "JIT", Just In Time, so there were probably a bunch of not-quite-done Xs out in the back of the factory, while the Ss that could have been finished and delivered were bumped off the line.