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Q1 2017 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by geneclean55, Mar 18, 2017.

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What is your Q1 2017 delivery estimate?

Poll closed Apr 3, 2017.
  1. Up to 18,000

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  2. 18,001 to 20,000

    3 vote(s)
    3.3%
  3. 20,001 to 22,000

    16 vote(s)
    17.6%
  4. 22,001 to 24,000

    37 vote(s)
    40.7%
  5. 24,001 to 26,000

    30 vote(s)
    33.0%
  6. 26,001 to 28,000

    3 vote(s)
    3.3%
  7. 28,001 or more

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  1. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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  2. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Deliveries 11800S 9400X 21200T
    Production 12100S 9980X 22080T
     
  3. TMSE

    TMSE Member

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  4. dandurston

    dandurston Member

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    I think it's going to be low. The shut down in Feb seemed like it took too long. They might make up production, but I'm worried they won't make up deliveries. I suspect that TSLA guided for 47-50k in the first half because of this. Like usual, they'll get behind and then battle to hit the bottom end of the range.

    So I think ~20.4k in Q1 and 28k in Q2.

    Feels weird to be lower than bonaire.
     
    • Funny x 3
  5. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Deliveries to overseas markets have been strong this quarter. I think that makes it tough for this quarter to look particularly bad.
     
    • Informative x 1
  6. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    #6 bonaire, Mar 18, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
    Well, I am a bit higher than dand. due to the "claim" that 6500 were in transit. I have now taken to the view that what is "in transit" is essentially the available inventory available worldwide "that could be sold at any time" - essentially in transit to some new buyer soon, even buyers who have not shown up in stores yet. The 6500 didn't show up in January sales for Europe and USA so must have been China. China is the one area we just have to take wild guesses on. Even the reporting on ev-sales.blogspot.com doesn't show much sizable Tesla sales for Jan-Feb so far. Wonder what they really mean by "in-transit"?

    Inventory comes and goes and good sized blocks of US inventory are out there for Model X in the 40xxx and 41xxx vin # ranges. At least 12% or more of each 1000. Don't know about Europe and clearly China in terms of solid inventory turning.

    I'd like to know how Q2 could possibly beat Q3 of 2016 in total numbers (ie. dan's 28k) I have only seen ~19384 total Vin #s given out through now for Q1. That translates to this and next quarter's production levels. Watching for "something" to get them rising again. Something "new" - perhaps a limited-run of ModelS P75D to prepare and test drivetrains for Model 3 P versions.
     
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  7. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Have you looked at European registrations for this quarter? There is a dedicated page for it on this very site.
     
  8. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    #8 bonaire, Mar 18, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2017
    Sure, all the time. it looks to be roughly double that of 2016. This now includes Model X activity in Europe (1 MX was delivered in Q1 in Europe last year). Having the deliveries of MX going on in Europe. How many are receiving their cars now that were held back like 5-seater MX orders that didn't go to Europe at all in 2016? Once all models are flowing smoothly, then you can do compares. I wouldn't compare Q1 16v17 due to no Model X sold there last year. MS itself is doing worse in 17Q1v16Q1. There is an interesting notion to attend to. That is "if Tesla has low numbers in Q1 and for some reason, the IB allows the stock to drop, could it cannibalize Q2 sales as well?" The stock value has a lot going for it in both using returns to buy upgraded cars for some buyers, to giving the purchase a "stamp of approval" because $TSLA is a high-flyer. If it would tank for any reason (such as Q1 sales, whatever) then Model 3 becomes super-important to execute perfectly. Then if it doesn't... This type of thing could happen.
     
  9. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    For example, 1000 more cars have been delivered to Europe in Jan/Feb compared to Oct/Nov of last quarter due to shipping overhang.

    Deliveries continue to flood into Norway during March, with 500 (more likely 600) an easy target for March.

    UK only started receiving volume deliveries of MX in Jan. Hint: look for a blowout month in March.

    Netherlands rolled back subsidies for hybrids leading to a nice bump in pure electrics. Hint: Look for a blowout March.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 1
  10. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Agreed - we wait and see. Norway is 2/3 of the way to matching Q1 of 2016, but using two models versus one (MS in 16). But we are also 2/3 the way through the month. Could get interesting all around in Europe. But if it's not stellar, "cars in transit" may be mentioned yet again. Let's just vote and see. We probably should have a separate thread for discussion.

    With 6500 in transit, I'd have expected more than a 1000 EU bump like you are saying.
     
  11. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    EU isn't the only overseas market though.
    I have considered looking into JATO dynamics and seeing how much they charge for access to their car delivery/registration info as they ?seem? to have a good read on China.
     
  12. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    JATO data discussed here. Where did all the Tesla Cars in China Disappear? | Planet Infowars
    There was also a good sales number in end of 2015 in China too, and there was discussion on TMC regarding possible discounting that assisted in that sales number. Remember the primary number being watched is "car units delivered" - and possibly second, production levels. We all know that profits and revenues are not that important :)
     
    • Informative x 1
  13. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    Looking at the various pieces of data. They made 24,882 vehicles in 13 calendar weeks in Q4, 2016 and delivered 22,252.

    On October 19, they posted that all vehicles made had Autopilot 2 hardware. The shutdown was therefore roughly 2 weeks, so that's probably slightly less than 11 production weeks including holidays. That's about 2,350 vehicles/week. Note that the Q4 shutdown changed the vehicles they were producing.

    If the Q1 shutdown is also 2 weeks, then there are also 11 production weeks if they didn't take any extra time off at the beginning of the quarter. The ramp back up to speed is likely faster, since they didn't change the vehicles they are producing. They also knew about the shutdown beforehand and claimed they took steps to mitigate it. Also, they recently shifted from 2 shifts covering 20 hours to 3 shifts, but unclear how much more production time if any. The shutdown, however, during middle of a quarter instead of at the beginning of the quarter. That could complicate things. Really unclear if they could have compensated at the beginning of the quarter.

    During the conference call, Wheeler said that they missed delivering 2,750 cars by a couple of days. Apparently there was a problem in China and Musk said, "we had 2000 cars on ships, waiting to dock in China at the end of last year, that could dock because of port closures due to smog,"

    As a result, my guess is that they made 25,500, and delivered 24,500.
     
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  14. NannerAirCraft

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    My guess is they produced 25,000 and delivered 25,500. Guessing mix is 14,500 Model S and 11,000 Model X.
     
  15. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Sounds very reasonable. It is safe to say, Q1 will be strong, but less than 50% of the H1 target. Also, there is a reason why they haven't provided a Q1 target, just a H1 target. My educated guess is 23,500-24,500. Anything more exact is just a WAG, so I go with 23,987 for that.
     
  16. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    22,197 delivered; 20,343 produced Q1

    Q2: 27,100 delivered; 27,222 produced.

    The Q1 shutdown hurts. No doubt. Yes, they increased to 3 shifts in Q1 to try to make up for things and that will help in Q2 and keep Q1 from being sub 20K.

    ***My hope is be off (low) by 20% in my Q1 guess.****
     
  17. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    25,300 delivered; 26,100 produced
     
  18. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    The one thing everyone misses (and presumably denies) is that order-rate is not as high as it has been. How is it that nobody factors the actual "possibility" of a flattening or drop in custom-order rate into any estimation? It seems that everyone believes there is still some level of "production constraint". Vin issuance rates don't correspond with some of the above estimates. We may end Q1 with only about 20,000 Vin #s issued during the q.
     
  19. sdtslafan

    sdtslafan Member

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    I doubt the q1 numbers will be that good, maybe 21k delivered.

    If they were going to have blow out numbers, they would likely have waited a few extra weeks for the cap raise so it could occur at a higher price.

    also, slowdown in model S VIN issuance is quite striking.

    Doubt there will be positive news on this front.

    But the good news is cap raise is out of the way and tesla is funded for the short and intermediate term.

    Also poor delivery numbers may not matter so much if they recognize autopilot revenue from q4 and q1.
     
  20. dennis

    dennis P85D

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    Because they moved the delivery for custom order US Model X to May in early February and for Model S to May at the end of February. We know they can build and deliver to anywhere in the US in less than 4 weeks and to California in less than 2 weeks. Why would they push domestic orders into Q2 if they are demand constrained? What is your alternate explanation for custom orders being moved out of Q1 so early ?
     
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