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Deliveries to overseas markets have been strong this quarter. I think that makes it tough for this quarter to look particularly bad.I think it's going to be low. The shut down in Feb seemed like it took too long. They might make up production, but I'm worried they won't make up deliveries. I suspect that TSLA guided for 47-50k in the first half because of this. Like usual, they'll get behind and then battle to hit the bottom end of the range.
So I think ~20.4k in Q1 and 28k in Q2.
Feels weird to be lower than bonaire.
Have you looked at European registrations for this quarter? There is a dedicated page for it on this very site.Well, I am a bit higher due to the "claim" that 6500 were in transit. Those didn't show up in January sales for Europe and USA so must have been China. China is the one area we just have to take wild guesses on.
Have you looked at European registrations for this quarter? There is a dedicated page for it on this very site.
Sounds very reasonable. It is safe to say, Q1 will be strong, but less than 50% of the H1 target. Also, there is a reason why they haven't provided a Q1 target, just a H1 target. My educated guess is 23,500-24,500. Anything more exact is just a WAG, so I go with 23,987 for that.Looking at the various pieces of data. They made 24,882 vehicles in 13 calendar weeks in Q4, 2016 and delivered 22,252.
On October 19, they posted that all vehicles made had Autopilot 2 hardware. The shutdown was therefore roughly 2 weeks, so that's probably slightly less than 11 production weeks including holidays. That's about 2,350 vehicles/week. Note that the Q4 shutdown changed the vehicles they were producing.
If the Q1 shutdown is also 2 weeks, then there are also 11 production weeks if they didn't take any extra time off at the beginning of the quarter. The ramp back up to speed is likely faster, since they didn't change the vehicles they are producing. They also knew about the shutdown beforehand and claimed they took steps to mitigate it. Also, they recently shifted from 2 shifts covering 20 hours to 3 shifts, but unclear how much more production time if any. The shutdown, however, during middle of a quarter instead of at the beginning of the quarter. That could complicate things. Really unclear if they could have compensated at the beginning of the quarter.
During the conference call, Wheeler said that they missed delivering 2,750 cars by a couple of days. Apparently there was a problem in China and Musk said, "we had 2000 cars on ships, waiting to dock in China at the end of last year, that could dock because of port closures due to smog,"
As a result, my guess is that they made 25,500, and delivered 24,500.
22,197 delivered; 20,343 produced Q1
Q2: 27,100 delivered; 27,222 produced.
The Q1 shutdown hurts. No doubt. Yes, they increased to 3 shifts in Q1 to try to make up for things and that will help in Q2 and keep Q1 from being sub 20K.
***My hope is be off (low) by 20% in my Q1 guess.****
Because they moved the delivery for custom order US Model X to May in early February and for Model S to May at the end of February. We know they can build and deliver to anywhere in the US in less than 4 weeks and to California in less than 2 weeks. Why would they push domestic orders into Q2 if they are demand constrained? What is your alternate explanation for custom orders being moved out of Q1 so early ?The one thing everyone misses (and presumably denies) is that order-rate is not as high as it has been. How is it that nobody factors the actual "possibility" of a flattening or drop in custom-order rate into any estimation? It seems that everyone believes there is still some level of "production constraint". Vin issuance rates don't correspond with some of the above estimates. We may end Q1 with only about 20,000 Vin #s issued during the q.