Q1 2019 earnings call stuff

[googlepeakoil]

Tesla announced the layoffs in the third week of January. Assuming they spent a whole two weeks deciding who to let go means they got rid of a bunch of S/X staff after seeing 1 week of poor sales. They either have a near supernatural level of prescience, or they knew S/X production was going to slow down because they were bringing the lines down for updates/redesigns.

Tesla slashed Model S and X staff in recent layoffs

Companies (including mine) announce layoffs, then decide who to let go sometimes.
Put it the other way. Tesla knew they needed to do a refresh on S and X and were looking for a good time to do it. They knew they were going to get pull forward to Q4 because of the $7500 tax break cliff. They know Q1 is slow in the industry (people don't buy when there's snow everywhere). They could I believe anticipate needing only 60-70% capacity and close one production line for a quarter and think "now would be a good time to take a production line down". I don't think for a second the reduced sales is "100% because of the production line closure". It'd be insane for Tesla to jeopardise sales on a 25-30% margin product by cancelling a production line if the sales were still there. Also haven't they previously done 2-3 shifts a day? So they could change shift patterns on 1 line if demand was higher. Also - who says it takes nearly a quarter to change a production line motor from AC to DC? How much hardware do you really need to change? So I don't believe (as the Q report said) that production was lower because of the production line change.

 

[googlepeakoil]

Companies (including mine) announce layoffs, then decide who to let go sometimes.
Put it the other way. Tesla knew they needed to do a refresh on S and X and were looking for a good time to do it. They knew they were going to get pull forward to Q4 because of the $7500 tax break cliff. They know Q1 is slow in the industry (people don't buy when there's snow everywhere). They could I believe anticipate needing only 60-70% capacity and close one production line for a quarter and think "now would be a good time to take a production line down". I don't think for a second the reduced sales is "100% because of the production line closure". It'd be insane for Tesla to jeopardise sales on a 25-30% margin product by cancelling a production line if the sales were still there. Also haven't they previously done 2-3 shifts a day? So they could change shift patterns on 1 line if demand was higher. Also - who says it takes nearly a quarter to change a production line motor from AC to DC? How much hardware do you really need to change? So I don't believe (as the Q report said) that production was lower because of the production line change.

Tesla I believe is only changing the front motor on the model S /X to a PMSRM - 'Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor'. Not sure if the form factor is the same. The mounting brackets might be the same size. So they probably didn't have much down time. I think then in highway cruising it just uses the PMRSM, not the rear motor.

 

[neroden]

Replacing the suspension and replacing the front motor is a very involved change on a Tesla. They also changed a bunch of the wiring (that's how they raised the top supercharging speed).

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Tesla I believe is only changing the front motor on the model S /X to a PMSRM - 'Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor'. Not sure if the form factor is the same. The mounting brackets might be the same size. So they probably didn't have much down time. I think then in highway cruising it just uses the PMRSM, not the rear motor.

They updated the suspension and frame (A-arms) too, so it wasn't a trivial update.

EXCLUSIVE: 2019 Tesla Model S Review: From SF to LA on One Charge? - MotorTrend

Unless they rehire all of the workers they laid off, my guess is they also likely automated some of the S/X lines.

Edit - neroden beat me to it.

In the Q1 earnings call, JB also referenced needing new tooling for the new suspension around 43:00, and said they were going to increase production in Q2 of this year beyond what they had during Q1 of last year to offset for lower numbers in Q1 of this year, and then ramp it down a bit after it catches up with demand.