Q1 2019 Production numbers - concern?

[tmoz]

It has me worried - lower than Q3 and Q4 2018.
Is demand down?
Tempe Delivery center says there are several storage locations around the area that new cars get shipped to.
They no longer have to stuff a boatload of cars in their limited space parking lot, although they are visibly fuller towards the end of the quarter.
So it does sound like cars are being built on a speculation basis.
Why else would production be down if demand weren't down too?
I'm hoping some other line is tooling up.

 

[exLeaf]

According to Blumberg Tesla produced around 225000 Model 3 so far. Still there should be about same number of people that paid deposit but did not get a car yet.

 

[J X 3]

Model 3 production is up over q4 but just a little, remains to be seen if that's because of the of shifts to and from EU and China as well as the Standard Range Plus ramp, or they are just ramping slowly at this point.
Model X should be a bit weak but relatively OK.
Model S should be very weak and it's mostly Tesla's doing. Main reason is Model 3 cannibalizing it. Then you got Tesla streamlining S&X to death, few options, much higher starting price. Their leases are not very reasonable, over 3 years the total payments amount to some 60% of the value of the car. Tax credit phase out also pulled orders into Q4. Many are delaying purchase and waiting for an update, at least faster charging. In the used car market there are a lot more Model S than before, even 5 years ago prod was quite substantial.

Model 3 should have some high end inventory in the US and China but that doesn't mean weak demand overall. With Model 3, production is too low to catch up with demand anytime soon. They are still catching up on SR+ N America orders, then they need to make SR and expand both globally. Global demand for Long Range and above is likely some 40k units per quarter already and it can increase with more cars on the road, leases, FSD - in FSD Tesla has a many thousands of dollars cost advantage over folks that will use LIDAR and Nvidia or Intel. SR and SR+ demand would be much higher than LR and above demand. And for now, production is way lower than organic demand while they still need to catch up with reservations.

Model S would be nice if they get range up to 400 miles, that would imply a 20% gain over the current 335 miles but remains to be seen if they can add more cells and gain some efficiency while improving cooling. Main priority would be to catch up with Model 3 in charging rates. And ofc everybody expects a new interior. Starting price back down to around 75k would be nice too. Wouldn't push sales to 15k units per quarter sustained as Model 3 still cannibalizes it but would help a lot.

From a financial point of view, S&X Q1 sales do hurt quite a bit.

 

[pz1975]

I am positive there are probably 40-50,000+ people waiting for a Model S upgrade who
would trade in their older Model S for a new one if the changes are significant enough. The small iterations Tesla does are great but someone like myself needs some sort of major change in the look of the car to justify buying a new one when my 2013 P85 still works just fine. Even just an interior refresh/redesign would be a lot plus of course being able to have autopilot and dual motor. I can’t justify buying the exact same looking car even if it does have advantages to my current one.

 

[tmoz]

I think a major jump in FSD or even autopilot capability would bring in a rush of new orders for the S, or all of their cars for that matter.
Model Y should be crazy popular too. I have a 2015 85D, or HW1. I'm not convinced that the FSD hardware has matured. 2.0. 2.5. 3.0?
I would trade up once I see that the current hardware in production coupled with the software is working mostly as advertised.

As to production, could it be that their current lines are near maximum capacity?

 

[Cory151]

I am positive there are probably 40-50,000+ people waiting for a Model S upgrade who
would trade in their older Model S for a new one if the changes are significant enough. The small iterations Tesla does are great but someone like myself needs some sort of major change in the look of the car to justify buying a new one when my 2013 P85 still works just fine. Even just an interior refresh/redesign would be a lot plus of course being able to have autopilot and dual motor. I can’t justify buying the exact same looking car even if it does have advantages to my current one.

The car your driving is already vastly different than what's available new. I went from a P85D to P100DL, completely different, front end, rear end, seats, center console, rims, suspension, acceleration etc.

 

[pz1975]

The car your driving is already vastly different than what's available new. I went from a P85D to P100DL, completely different, front end, rear end, seats, center console, rims, suspension, acceleration etc.

Yes I know (I have friends with various versions of the S from mine until now) but the car still looks basically the same. There is something about a significant internal refresh that makes the car feel new again. This is just my opinion of course but 2 of my friends feel the exact same way - just waiting for something significant to change before upgrading.

 

[tmoz]

Yes I know (I have friends with various versions of the S from mine until now) but the car still looks basically the same. There is something about a significant internal refresh that makes the car feel new again. This is just my opinion of course but 2 of my friends feel the exact same way - just waiting for something significant to change before upgrading.

I want more than looks to upgrade. Need features.