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Q1 Model X Sales will be lousy!

Discussion in 'Model X' started by Nototrader, Jan 30, 2016.

  1. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    I'm not really going out on a limb here. It is almost February and as far as I know, there have been pretty much zero or close to zero production X cars delivered so far. Looking at the vins from the event, there are hundreds of cars sitting at the factory being checked for issues so Tesla doesn't have a PR nightmare once deliveries start. Remember, a large portion of the Sig cars are hand assembled so it was a little different. So taking into account the amount of time it takes the vehicles to pass final inspection and then get shipped all over the country, there is no way Tesla will come close to delivering 2k model X's by the end of March. I think short term the stock tanks even more. I wouldn't be surprised if they warned about this after the next earnings report.
     
  2. pvogel

    pvogel Member

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    60 days is a very long time. If they could deliver 200 Sig's in the last week of December then they could deliver close to 1600 in the next 8 weeks, possibly more. Assuming the QC issues are largely resolved. If we figure VINS 444 through 448 (9?) that were on display last night were completed for the purpose before the invite was sent out, I would venture to say they're getting to amp things up significantly.
     
  3. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

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    Nope. Sales no. will be fine in my opinion. By fine I mean at least 1500.
     
  4. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    Considering Tesla had 500 built by the end of the year and only 200 delivered, 1500 in Q1 would be terrible IMO. Now, I'm one of the ones waiting for my car to get shipped and from what I'm seeing, there is definitely a delay for some reason. They just don't hold hundreds of finished cars for no reason.
     
  5. EarlyAdopter

    EarlyAdopter Active Member

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    Still planning on flipping it?

    Model X P90DL for sale
     
  6. pvogel

    pvogel Member

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    I think they are trying to avoid creating grumbles from Sig holders for delivering production before all ordered Sig's are delivered like happened with the S. After all, they are 1 month away from offering Model 3 Sig reservations...
     
  7. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    If I get 40 above msrp, I will gladly flip it and order another one for myself the next day. I realized last week that my wife will end up stealing the X from me. That being said, she does not need a p90d with lud. I'm close to buying a cpo MS and was kind of hoping to enjoy that for a while before my second X comes in. However, I don't know what the market is for new X's for people who don't want to wait. Having 4 cars and a new MS toy on the way, I'm happy to give mine away for a nice profit or keep it for myself. I feel very lucky to be able to do either. These are not real life problems.
     
  8. aesculus

    aesculus Still Trying to Figure this All Out

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    The thread title seems to be wrong. It's about sales but the post and follow on discussions are about delivery.

    The elephant in the room is about Model X sales. Do they really want to sell the Model X? At this point I think not. It appears to be next year's car at best. Maybe the plan is just to produce what has been reserved and see how the market responds.

    I am not a believer that a backlog can be created instantly, but can be proved wrong.
     
  9. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    Hint might be in OPs handle.... "trader". According to GAAP, Tesla cannot book revenue (i.e. 'sale') until they deliver. So, from short sighted, quarterly P&L investor perspective, sales = deliveries. However, regarding health of the company and pipeline for X, sales not = deliveries, and would agree it is mis-titled. There was a pretty huge X backlog. That will put cars on the street and eventually in the showroom. Then - probably Summer, we will start to see indication of whether X is a sales winner or not. I predict it will be. There are just so many people in the luxury SUV market, and the X is likely to clobber other brands the same way the S has clobbered all other luxury sedans - though it took 2+ years on the market to get there.
     
  10. eye.surgeon

    eye.surgeon Member

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    I have yet to even see a MX on a showroom floor. To me, that's telling. I think it's a stretch to even consider the MX as being a production model at this point. Looks to me like some questionable design decisions that exponentially increased build complexity have bitten tesla in the rear big-time. cough falcon doors cough.
     
  11. Martin VanB

    Martin VanB Member

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    I recently received an invite to view a Model X at a Tesla store in Toronto Canada. The date I received was March 16, 2016. I would imagine if they are getting ready to show the Model X at a Tesla store they are pretty close to a ramped up delivery schedule. Yet I can not be sure of what delivery plans are. In Canada I can be sure my Model X will be delivered after the USA cars but I am okay with that.
     
  12. CarlK

    CarlK Member

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    The best and probably correct theory is one last supplier is holding up production but the assembly line is pretty much all ready. Tesla should ba able to turn on real mass production anytime soon as the supplier gets its act together which should not be too hard a thing to do. There is no sign that there is anything that needs to be redesigned or re-engineered to cause more delays.
     
  13. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    yes. You are correct. While I no longer trade myself, I was referring to the public stock definition of a sale. And I'm simply saying that I think the first quarter will be a huge letdown as I don't think Tesla will deliver enough units for the market to be impressed. Long term it may not make a difference. I was just making an observation/educated guess.
     
  14. SMSMD

    SMSMD Member

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    I too received an invite to meet the X. Hoping that the problems will be sorted by the time I get my X, Very anxious about the pricing in CAD. Will be looking out tomorrow after 1PM Tesla's time if any Canadian production model X invites come out. Good luck.
     
  15. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    It would be a good idea to merge this thread with the original sale thread to make the user's financial interest in encouraging a view of scarcity clear.
     
  16. Marcos

    Marcos Member

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    Those doors will sell more new Xs than anything else once the cars are out on the road. If it means delaying for a bit to create the kind of buzz and sensation to sell more later, I'd take the delay any day of the week.

    My problem with those doors are that they will attract too much attention at the school drop-off line and at parking lots. So as an introvert, I cringe at that. But it is EXACTLY that attention that will propel not just X sales, but the Tesla brand, into the future.
     
  17. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    That's funny. Trust me, one thread wasn't meant to provoke the other thread. And if my car does sell, I guarantee it won't be a user on this site.
     
  18. CarlK

    CarlK Member

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    You're right. That's why X in pretty much every press photo we see has its falcon wing doors in the up position. The FWD will definitely help Cayenne, X5/6, Q7 and Range Rover owners to further develop their inferiority complex.
     
  19. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    I don't think it's funny. I don't trust car dealers.
     
  20. Nototrader

    Nototrader Member

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    First time ever selling a car privately. Usually trade in or lease expiration. I think it's funny that Bonnie sells her highly publicized sig 2 and is applauded. Someone else tries to sell their car and is vilified. Interesting.
     

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