Q1 Model X Sales will be lousy!

[pvogel]

Meyers and Briggs have quite a bit of data on a very large population. You're not too far off with the 50% thing, but what few realize is how the MB Type Indicator fluctuates significantly over the course of a person's life. And each measure is in fact a spectrum from extreme to opposite extreme and many possibilities in between.

 

[nienco2]

FWD and the other 50%

It was meant to be more as an informal comment, there's probably not a lot of studies of this topic and if there is they're subjected to a lot of bias I would imagine.

Actually there are plenty of studies but my point would be from a strictly marketing perspective. Clearly a lot of people don't want strangers coming up to them in parking lots striking up conversations about their car doors. Or making assumptions about them owning a particularly expensive automobile. So if it were me why would I want to cut my overall market by some substantial percentage on a feature that may not be necessary? FWD as an option I get, but as the only option I don't. Just one mans opinion and just as invalid as any others :smile:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jennago...50-percent-introverts-susan-cain/#7a3d78b26ba

 

[CTemp222]

Actually there are plenty of studies but my point would be from a strictly marketing perspective. Clearly a lot of people don't want strangers coming up to them in parking lots striking up conversations about their car doors. Or making assumptions about them owning a particularly expensive automobile. So if it were me why would I want to cut my overall market by some substantial percentage on a feature that may not be necessary? FWD as an option I get, but as the only option I don't. Just one mans opinion and just as invalid as any others :smile:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jennago...50-percent-introverts-susan-cain/#7a3d78b26ba

I meant like peer reviewed papers

 

[Super_Popular]

In my opinion no need to criticize OP because he is going to sell his car. People criticize Tesla all the time. Just because OP has a motive that we know of doesn't disqualify him from discussions.

Exactly, it's car and if someone is willing to pay his asking price so be it.

 

[Marcos]

Actually there are plenty of studies but my point would be from a strictly marketing perspective. Clearly a lot of people don't want strangers coming up to them in parking lots striking up conversations about their car doors. Or making assumptions about them owning a particularly expensive automobile. So if it were me why would I want to cut my overall market by some substantial percentage on a feature that may not be necessary?

50% of the country is still 160 million people, and that's before we go international. And here I am, introvert, getting the X because it is so freakin' cool, and part of that coolness is those freakin' doors ha ha. So even the introvert market is attainable!

The market is limited by cost and production capacity, not Meyer-Briggs scores.

and just because it's not necessary doesn't mean it's not functional or desirable. Very few things in a modern car are necessary.

 

[pvogel]

Reminds me of the frog joke...


Software engineer is walking down the street and frog jumps in front of him and says: "wait! I'm actually a beautiful princess and if you kiss me I'll transform back and I'll do *anything* you want!"

Engineer says "Cool!" Grabs the frog and shoves it in his pocket and keeps walking...

Frog yells out from the pocket, "Wait! Clearly you misunderstood, take me out again"

Guy takes the frog out and the frog says, "All you have to do is kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful woman you've ever dreamt of and I'll do *anything* you want. Clothing optional"

Engineer says "Cool!" Puts the frog back in his pocket and keeps going...

Frog screams, jumps onto his shoulder and says "Good grief! I've never met anyone so naive! Kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful creature you've ever laid eyes on and we'll make passionate love together!"

Engineer says: "yeah, I got that the first time. Sex is great and everything, but a talking frog? That's **cool**!"

 

[CTemp222]

Reminds me of the frog joke...


Software engineer is walking down the street and frog jumps in front of him and says: "wait! I'm actually a beautiful princess and if you kiss me I'll transform back and I'll do *anything* you want!"

Engineer says "Cool!" Grabs the frog and shoves it in his pocket and keeps walking...

Frog yells out from the pocket, "Wait! Clearly you misunderstood, take me out again"

Guy takes the frog out and the frog says, "All you have to do is kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful woman you've ever dreamt of and I'll do *anything* you want. Clothing optional"

Engineer says "Cool!" Puts the frog back in his pocket and keeps going...

Frog screams, jumps onto his shoulder and says "Good grief! I've never met anyone so naive! Kiss me, I'll transform into the most beautiful creature you've ever laid eyes on and we'll make passionate love together!"

Engineer says: "yeah, I got that the first time. Sex is great and everything, but a talking frog? That's **cool**!"

Ha that's a good one! But i don't see how that relates to this thread...

 

[cantdecide]

I was expecting the punchline to be that he could sell the frog for a million dollars.

 

[Roamer]

After living with the Falcons for a month I have to say I absolutly love them. There is just something pleasant about having a roof over your head and no door to crawl around.

I had people coming by today to see the car (seems to be a regular Sunday event now days ) and needed to do a quick vacume out so it would look nice for their visit. Even a simple thing like vacuuming the floor is easier with the Falcons. I have a wall mount garage vac with a long hose. Normally I would pull the second car out of the two car garage and then back in and center the car being vacuumed in the two car garage area. Lots of room to open all four doors wide and walk around while doing a vacume job.

Today I just backed the X in next to the Model S. Sitting in the drivers seat I opened every door all at once then walked straight back to the vacume and did the whole car in almost no time at all. No doors in the way at all. Nothing to maneuver around. No problem having a car parked close by. I hung up the vacume hose then closed all five doors from the drivers seat and pulled the car out ready for the visitors.

Until you have lived with the doors you can't even comprehend all the ways they make using the car easier.

 

[eloder]

I have yet to even see a MX on a showroom floor. To me, that's telling. I think it's a stretch to even consider the MX as being a production model at this point. Looks to me like some questionable design decisions that exponentially increased build complexity have bitten tesla in the rear big-time. cough falcon doors cough.

In ten years, every large automaker will have a CUV/SUV that has everything the MX has, with the exception of the windshield and the FWD. In 3-5 years, you'll see several competitor vehicles that have everything the MX has except the windshield/FWD.

This short-term (investor-only) pain is nothing compared to the long-term dividends obtained by making this tech. The fact that they can automate production and brought the most complex parts in-house means there's no long-term negative consequences.

 

[nienco2]

I meant like peer reviewed papers

Seriously??? Forget it. FWD most important automotive feature since the cigarette lighter.
Color me a doubter but hopefully wrong, we'll know in 12 months.
peace

 

[Roamer]

For the introverts. You will be surprised how seldom people say or do anything when the Falcons fly. People that do notice or stop to comment are typically Tesla nuts and pleasantly harmless.

Even my wife, who started out concerned about drawing attention, has discovered it is not that big of a deal out in the real world.

Most people seem to have no idea what a Tesla is and do not seem to see the car or the doors as a sign of an expensive car. Other than Tesla Fanatics most people just give the car a curious glance and move on. Younger people may shout, "cool doors" as they drive by. That has happened several times.

So don't worry much about unwanted attention. Other than Tesla aficionados most people seem to be clueless about what they are seeing.

 

[nienco2]

In ten years, every large automaker will have a CUV/SUV that has everything the MX has, with the exception of the windshield and the FWD. In 3-5 years, you'll see several competitor vehicles that have everything the MX has except the windshield/FWD.

This short-term (investor-only) pain is nothing compared to the long-term dividends obtained by making this tech. The fact that they can automate production and brought the most complex parts in-house means there's no long-term negative consequences.

Ok, I really don't care but a little reality check is in order on the innovative marvel that is a FWD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gull-wing_door
Let's just all hope the original premise of this post is wrong :smile:

 

[pvogel]

Ha that's a good one! But i don't see how that relates to this thread...

Even introverts like *cool* stuff

 

[CTemp222]

Seriously??? Forget it. FWD most important automotive feature since the cigarette lighter.
Color me a doubter but hopefully wrong, we'll know in 12 months.
peace

yes peer reviewed research papers are generally the most reliable source. However I think introvert or not the FWDs will be a hit.

- - - Updated - - -

Even introverts like *cool* stuff

Oh yes so true!

 

[FlasherZ]

We just concluded 4 days of showing Model S at the St. Louis Auto Show where we did demonstrations of the summon feature all day... behind the "coolness" factor of the car driving itself was the #2 marvel... the door handles. They get so many "cool!" comments and nothing negative.

 

[omarsultan]

the door handles

Hey, this still make me smile too...

 

[GoTslaGo]

For the introverts. You will be surprised how seldom people say or do anything when the Falcons fly. People that do notice or stop to comment are typically Tesla nuts and pleasantly harmless.

Even my wife, who started out concerned about drawing attention, has discovered it is not that big of a deal out in the real world.

Most people seem to have no idea what a Tesla is and do not seem to see the car or the doors as a sign of an expensive car. Other than Tesla Fanatics most people just give the car a curious glance and move on. Younger people may shout, "cool doors" as they drive by. That has happened several times.

So don't worry much about unwanted attention. Other than Tesla aficionados most people seem to be clueless about what they are seeing.

Good to know. Been watching the vids and reading about the X. Wife gave me the possible thumbs up to get an X. So once we get a chance to see one and drive it, I plan to plunk down some change if we like it.

As for original post, all good things take time. When my DS called me about my wife's MS delivery date options, I told them to take their time and do a good job. Even if Q1 sales are lousy, I predict they will begin to jump once they get some Xs in the showroom.

 

[flankspeed8]

A little perspective: It took about 6 months for Tesla to deliver 1500 Model S's.

That still does not make the slow X launch any less disappointing. Tesla is no longer a start-up. They have a market cap of around $30 billion and 4 years of experience to ensure that the X ramp is significantly better then the S. How can they launch a car on September 29th and four months later really no indication of a significant ramp up?

 

[forumman83]

Flank, when is the last time you built a manufacturing company from scratch, did almost all of the production and design in-house, then produced a game-changing product the likes of which has never before been seen?

Tesla is more interested in doing things right than doing them quickly. I, personally, say take your time. 5 years from now we won't remember the relatively "low" Q4 2015 Model X sales figure.