Q1 Model X Sales will be lousy!

[Uncle Paul]

Easy to drive SUV's are perhaps the hottest items in the market place. Think Tesla has hit it out of the park with this one. Will sell every one they can make.

Same thing with the first Roadster and beautiful 4 door sedan. These products have a desire factor that is off the charts.

Most people that buy Telsas absolutely love them. For most other vehicles, owners consider them to be merely acceptable, but those that own Teslas become evangelical about them.

 

[CarlK]

Tesla is more interested in doing things right than doing them quickly. I, personally, say take your time. 5 years from now we won't remember the relatively "low" Q4 2015 Model X sales figure.

Absolutely! In this case where you end up at is much more important than how fast you get there. Tesla is trying to go where no man has been before.

 

[ecarfan]

Tesla is trying to go where no man has been before.

...and boldly... [emoji6]

 

[flankspeed8]

Flank, when is the last time you built a manufacturing company from scratch, did almost all of the production and design in-house, then produced a game-changing product the likes of which has never before been seen?

Tesla is more interested in doing things right than doing them quickly. I, personally, say take your time. 5 years from now we won't remember the relatively "low" Q4 2015 Model X sales figure.

WoW! Sensitive much? Didn't realize that I had to build a factory before commenting on how I would expect the X rollout to go smoother then the S rollout over 100,000 cars and $30 billion in market cap later. Explain please how it is possible that the X which was launched on September 29th (So EM could get his options benchmark for product delivery) could 4 months later still be trickling at best off the assembly line? I think this is a fair question.

 

[forumman83]

I think I answered your question: "Tesla is more interested in doing it right than doing it quickly"

Model X is a never-before-built vehicle. Nothing of it's kind exists. I don't care how well you plan things, there are going to be hiccups when pdouction starts. Tesla is finding out what those hiccups are, correcting them on the fly, and making sure the vehicles are up to par.

I would expect nothing less from any company.

 

[CarlK]

WoW! Sensitive much? Didn't realize that I had to build a factory before commenting on how I would expect the X rollout to go smoother then the S rollout over 100,000 cars and $30 billion in market cap later. Explain please how it is possible that the X which was launched on September 29th (So EM could get his options benchmark for product delivery) could 4 months later still be trickling at best off the assembly line? I think this is a fair question.

I don't really care long as I will get the car that I could not get from anyone else. Why should you?

 

[flankspeed8]

I don't really care long as I will get the car that I could not get from anyone else. Why should you?

why not? I have been an investor in TSLA, on the sidelines right now and the X ramp up certainly has bearing on the SP. I had an X reserved and cancelled when I realized that it would not be suitable for my new house and job, waiting to see what the 3 will have in store before I decide what will replace my Volt. I forget that sometimes it is taboo to question anything that might portray Tesla in a negative light. Read the boards, there have been plenty of people who have been inconvenienced by these delays. Is it wrong to expect a little better execution from Tesla and not blindly accept or make excuses for their lack of communication and execution? I am not the creator of this thread only a commentor which I believe I have a right to do.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Forum is OK for information, but just griping about something that everybody already knows about is not all that productive.

If you are upset about the price of your stock, don't take it out on the company via forums. Not helpful in any way.

Tesla has stated that their intention is to ramp up production as quality allows. They are not tending to just crank out the volumes until the quality is there.

It might just be as simple as a few suppliers failing to produce to standards. Believe it is much harder to actually produce the cars than to click on a keyboard complaining.

No other car manufacturer on the planet has been able to produce a vehicle with the capabilities of an all electric Tesla model X. They are years behind.

 

[ecarfan]

It will be interesting to see how the major auto manufacturers perform when they -- someday -- launch their own serious Tesla competitors with massive battery packs and other new features that they have never dealt with before. I predict they will have issues with ramping up production, but unlike Tesla they will not have tens of thousands of pre-paid customer reservations and be under the kind of pressure Tesla is to build tens of thousands of vehicles as fast as possible but also to a very high quality standard.
A more accurate title to this thread would be "Q1 Model X Production Ramp May Be Less Than Expected". Actual sales are likely to be very good.

 

[ohmman]

But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing—they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought.

I agree that from a marketing standpoint that the FWDoors are a net positive and I share your views that they are ostentatious.

I just want to point out here that audacious and ostentatious are very different. And even so, I can agree with both of you - though my feelings on the door align more closely with the definition of ostentatious: characterized by vulgar or pretentious display; designed to impress or attract notice.

I finally got to see and operate them in person today. And incorporating them into a vehicle was extremely audacious (showing a willingness to take surprisingly bold risks), but they still felt pretty ostentatious.

 

[eloder]

There will be plenty (read: every other car out there) electric CUV/SUVs with regular doors coming from all the other manufacturers

I'd never personally get them, but I think they're awesome and I'm glad Tesla shoots for the moon in cars. Don't forget, cars have been stagnant with very little innovation for over a hundred years--imagine if cell phones looked the same as they did even 30 years ago.

 

[MrBoylan]

I just want to point out here that audacious and ostentatious are very different. And even so, I can agree with both of you - though my feelings on the door align more closely with the definition of ostentatious: characterized by vulgar or pretentious display; designed to impress or attract notice.

I finally got to see and operate them in person today. And incorporating them into a vehicle was extremely audacious (showing a willingness to take surprisingly bold risks), but they still felt pretty ostentatious.

Thanks for your vocabularic enlightenment.

 

[PeterK]

Just this afternoon I was helping our youngest (kindergarten) out of her car seat in the S in our garage, and thinking how much easier this will be in a couple months when I have my X. And I just vacuumed the S yesterday, so @Roamer's account of quickly and easily vacuuming the X hit home.

As @Tomas and @Marcos and others have stated, I expect those doors will sell a lot of cars once the backlog is run through - S's and 3's as well as X's due to the halo effect. As a shareholder I will be happy. And while I'm not happy with the delays, thanks to the continued success of the S (and I expect the media frenzy over autopilot) they haven't affected Tesla's revenues. And the Gigafactory is the critical path for Model 3 so the X delays likely have minimal impact on the timing of the Model 3 production ramp up.

 

[nienco2]

A more accurate title to this thread would be "Q1 Model X Production Ramp May Be Less Than Expected". Actual sales are likely to be very good.

Personally it is not the pace of the ramp but rather that it looks nothing like what Elon has described to this point and I know he had indications months ago that that things were not as he was painting them. I just feel deceived and so have decided to cancel my res and go to the end of the line and reevaluate. The X is no longer a must have and additionally my confidence as an investor in the company and its leader sadly is greatly diminished :frown:

 

[Merrill]

Personally it is not the pace of the ramp but rather that it looks nothing like what Elon has described to this point and I know he had indications months ago that that things were not as he was painting them. I just feel deceived and so have decided to cancel my res and go to the end of the line and reevaluate. The X is no longer a must have and additionally my confidence as an investor in the company and its leader sadly is greatly diminished :frown:

Sorry to here you are cancelling, hopefully down the road you might reorder. I will give you my feelings about Tesla and Elon, I think the first thing we have to do is get some perspective. I love what Elon is trying to do and it is a very difficult task, and I have said this before starting up an independent car company that has survived has not been done since Henry Ford. So part of my reason for owning a Tesla is for the future and part because it is an amazing vehicle. As far as promises made by Elon I think it is what he hoped for but there are so many factors that can happen along the way that you can never plan for. This is a very complicated process and I just hope Tesla can survive. There have been many mistakes along the way and the only way for Tesla to continue will be for them to clean up their mistakes. I believe that will happen and sincerely hope for the Model 3 to become a reality. Call me what you want but looking forward to the all electric future.

 

[vandacca]

Sorry to here you are cancelling, hopefully down the road you might reorder. I will give you my feelings about Tesla and Elon, I think the first thing we have to do is get some perspective. I love what Elon is trying to do and it is a very difficult task, and I have said this before starting up an independent car company that has survived has not been done since Henry Ford. So part of my reason for owning a Tesla is for the future and part because it is an amazing vehicle. As far as promises made by Elon I think it is what he hoped for but there are so many factors that can happen along the way that you can never plan for. This is a very complicated process and I just hope Tesla can survive. There have been many mistakes along the way and the only way for Tesla to continue will be for them to clean up their mistakes. I believe that will happen and sincerely hope for the Model 3 to become a reality. Call me what you want but looking forward to the all electric future.

Actually, I think Chrysler was the last manufacturer to succeed/survive, but I do agree with you that it's a difficult task and I'm not 100% convinced yet that Tesla will survive, but I am fairly confident now that they will.

Elon simply needs to do 2 things: (a) stop making public promises and (b) work with someone to better plan/manage product schedules. I'd love for Tim Cook or someone of his skill/expertise to go work for Tesla. I'm sure it's hard to find someone like that or else Elon would have done it already.

 

[KJD]

Inside EVs is showing model X sales at 370 for Jan 2016.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

So yes a pretty lousy start for 2016.

 

[DJ Frustration]

Just providing a data point folks. We are Sig X 897 and have yet to get a notification that the vehicle has finished being built. They may be producing X vehicles at the 238/week rate that they ended 2015 on, but they sure as heck aren't delivering near that rate.

 

[Merrill]

Actually, I think Chrysler was the last manufacturer to succeed/survive, but I do agree with you that it's a difficult task and I'm not 100% convinced yet that Tesla will survive, but I am fairly confident now that they will.

Elon simply needs to do 2 things: (a) stop making public promises and (b) work with someone to better plan/manage product schedules. I'd love for Tim Cook or someone of his skill/expertise to go work for Tesla. I'm sure it's hard to find someone like that or else Elon would have done it already.

Chrysler was originally Maxwell Motor Company started in 1904 and the first Model T was built in 1908. But I agree with you and let's hope it happens.

 

[CTemp222]

Just providing a data point folks. We are Sig X 897 and have yet to get a notification that the vehicle has finished being built. They may be producing X vehicles at the 238/week rate that they ended 2015 on, but they sure as heck aren't delivering near that rate.

They are most likely holding a lot of cars back to wait for parts to arrive.