Q1 Model X Sales will be lousy!

[Canuck]

One of the most common fallacies you'll see anywhere when discussing product is the one that goes like this, "it doesn't appeal to ME, so it won't do so well." No one cares what YOU think, or what *I* think. The market is made up of millions of individuals all making their choices based on their own specific circumstances.

Like I said, as an introvert, I'd prefer something less flashy. Not only do I not want to draw attention to myself, but I also don't want to draw attention to my financial status. That's why I've never driven a car that cost more than $25,000 and I'm approaching 50. But objectively speaking, there's just no doubt that the FWD are a major success. As noted upthread, just about every photo of the car features open FWDs. Every video about it lingers disproportionately over those doors. Existing owners love to talk about those doors, and people they run into want to talk about those doors.

But they're not just cool and functional and attention-grabbing—they are so audacious, that the fact the car is electric is almost an afterthought. It's like, "yeah yeah, electric, but did you see those doors?" And normalizing the idea of having an electric car has to be part of Tesla's mission and that of those of us who are fighting for a cleaner and healthier planet. If we change the conversation from "how do you get from A to B without running out of juice" (thanks Model S!) to "how amazing are those doors?," everyone wins. And it seems we are already headed down that path. So I'm willing to bet that a few years down the road, those doors will be a key defining characteristic of the Tesla brand, so much so, that given the option (which might be the case with the 3), people will aspire for the FWDs as an upgrade.

And you might not like that, and other people who love to tell us they hate those doors might not like that, but in the end, the market will either embrace them or (always a real possibility) they won't. And if your position is held by enough people, so much so that a real market need exists, then either Tesla or someone else will work to fill it.

Now to be clear, I'm not suggesting that your criticism is unwarranted, or that it's bad to say "Tesla, you fill me needs better if you do X". And this particular comment isn't off-putting (you admit that you might be an "outlier"), so I don't mean to be picking on you, because I'm not. But so many others will do the "I hate it so Tesla screwed up!", whether it's regarding these doors, or the big windshield, or the lack of folding middle-row seats (which is my biggest personal gripe), when in reality, none of us know whether Tesla screwed up until we see what X sales look like down the road, not just in fulfilling pre-orders (how many cancelled?), but in new sales as well.

Personally, I think the FWDs are marketing genius, worth more than 1,000 Super Bowl ads. The degree as to how much I or any other individual likes them (or not) is irrelevant in that calculation.

Excellent post. Really the FWD are the equivalent of the Model S door handles on steroids. I could do without the door handles on my Model S retracting (more of a hassle than anything) but they sure attract attention (another thing I like to avoid).

 

[jfranks]

I saw three new X's at the Austin, TX service center this morning. They're getting them out here.

 

[CTemp222]

I saw three new X's at the Austin, TX service center this morning. They're getting them out here.

Were they production or signature?

 

[pvogel]

I think the real thing to worry about is that the Inside EVs article also shows that Model S sales for January were only 850. I already knew that Model X sales were down, since we don't have our Sig X #484 yet, but that is quite a hit for Model S sales, even when you take into account the time they were closed down.

Ron
Sig X VIN #484

If you total the Model S and Model X you are at 1220 which makes Tesla still the #1 selling EV and 120 more cars delivered in Jan 2016 than in Jan 2015, not bad given they are bringing a whole new model up on the line which has to cause some level of disruption.

Interesting, the Model X is the #3 selling EV, behind the Volt and the S. And why the Volt counts as an EV is beyond me...

Peter+

 

[ankitmishra]

Woo hoo!! Straight in the top three.

 

[sub]

I think the real thing to worry about is that the Inside EVs article also shows that Model S sales for January were only 850. I already knew that Model X sales were down, since we don't have our Sig X #484 yet, but that is quite a hit for Model S sales, even when you take into account the time they were closed down.

Ron
Sig X VIN #484

Tesla has made the rest of the world wait in 4Q15 while trying to meet the yearly guidance. They focused on US deliveries and at the end California deliveries. They now need to catch up on the world backlog and make the U.S. Wait, they will get back to the U.S. Later in the qtr. deliveries (regional) does not equal production or sales.

 

[dwebb66]

Tesla has made the rest of the world wait in 4Q15 while trying to meet the yearly guidance. They focused on US deliveries and at the end California deliveries. They now need to catch up on the world backlog and make the U.S. Wait, they will get back to the U.S. Later in the qtr. deliveries (regional) does not equal production or sales.

I was not aware that the 'rest of the world' had been invited to configure, until they have configured their cars, Tesla can not queue then up and ship them.

 

[eloder]

I was not aware that the 'rest of the world' had been invited to configure, until they have configured their cars, Tesla can not queue then up and ship them.

They did indeed put the rest of the world into a queue for the Model S in Q4. Why else would the wait for a new S be a few weeks in the US, and three months overseas?

 

[Judge Advocate]

It is the opinion of this poster that the Model X is ugly and is basically an obese Model S. Ugh!
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
Not a head turner for sure, like my Model S is.

 

[ohmman]

It is the opinion of this poster that the Model X is ugly and is basically an obese Model S. Ugh!
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
Not a head turner for sure, like my Model S is.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. I'm fine with your first two sentences - the last is yet to be determined as it's not an opinion.

 

[PeterK]

I think its looks need to be compared to its vehicle type and competition. Of course the S is slimmer and sleeker, and for that matter the Roadster is sportier. But for an SUV/CUV, and compared to other SUV/CUVs, it is quite smooth and sleek, and even a little sporty. I love my S but will also love my X.

 

[ROBwithab]

"The market" is simply the sum of all the individual personal opinions. If many many people have expressed a similar opinion, we can extrapolate, with some degree of accuracy, as to what "the market" wants. We can also take educate guesses as to what buyers might prefer by learning from history.

However, my solution is much simpler. Simply option the doors, and let people decide for themselves. And do the same for the windscreen, seats and air filter.
Price the options realistically to cover the real costs, put the information on the website, and let customers configure the vehicle that best suits their needs and budget (you know, like they do on the Tesla website for that hugely popular sedan of theirs... ). It's a huge part of the Tesla customer experience, that ability to customise the vehicle.

If someone thinks the FW doors are really cool and is prepared to pay extra for the privilege of having them, excellent.
If someone prefers "regular" doors and can save a few hundred bucks (and probably a few months in the delivery queue), also excellent.

Why not let the customers decide for themselves?

 

[pvogel]

Because the doors drive a whole set of design choices that would have to be done completely differently for traditional doors. If you don't want Falcon wing doors, move on and buy a different car. Model S or whatever you want. No one is holding a gun to your head and telling you to buy a Model X.

 

[PeterK]

"The market" is simply the sum of all the individual personal opinions. If many many people have expressed a similar opinion, we can extrapolate, with some degree of accuracy, as to what "the market" wants. We can also take educate guesses as to what buyers might prefer by learning from history.

However, my solution is much simpler. Simply option the doors, and let people decide for themselves. And do the same for the windscreen, seats and air filter.
Price the options realistically to cover the real costs, put the information on the website, and let customers configure the vehicle that best suits their needs and budget (you know, like they do on the Tesla website for that hugely popular sedan of theirs... ). It's a huge part of the Tesla customer experience, that ability to customise the vehicle.

If someone thinks the FW doors are really cool and is prepared to pay extra for the privilege of having them, excellent.
If someone prefers "regular" doors and can save a few hundred bucks (and probably a few months in the delivery queue), also excellent.

Why not let the customers decide for themselves?

Because the doors and windscreen are a fundamental part of the design, and the seats fit with that. The air filter is already an option.

What you're describing is a completely different car which would take additional time, resources and complexity to produce, and if sold for a lower price would generate lower profits. All of which would not help drive forward and fund the Model 3.

 

[CarlK]

I think its looks need to be compared to its vehicle type and competition. Of course the S is slimmer and sleeker, and for that matter the Roadster is sportier. But for an SUV/CUV, and compared to other SUV/CUVs, it is quite smooth and sleek, and even a little sporty. I love my S but will also love my X.

You hit the nail right on the head. Just like no one would compare the S to a Ferrari why would one wants to compare an SUV to a sports sedan.

Why not let the customers decide for themselves?

You are absolutely right. That's why we have hundreds of different models on the market. And the aftermarket too if that's not enough.

 

[ecarfan]

However, my solution is much simpler. Simply option the doors, and let people decide for themselves. And do the same for the windscreen, seats and air filter.

Doing as you describe would be extremely expensive for Tesla and require two very different body and structural designs. There would be nothing "simple" about it and the X would be even more expensive than it is now.
The X apparently is not the car for you. That's fine. No one car is suitable for all buyers, obviously.

 

[aesculus]

I think its looks need to be compared to its vehicle type and competition. Of course the S is slimmer and sleeker, and for that matter the Roadster is sportier. But for an SUV/CUV, and compared to other SUV/CUVs, it is quite smooth and sleek, and even a little sporty. I love my S but will also love my X.

I would tend to agree. Having said that someone could come out of left field and blow the doors off with a new design that is both functional and elegant. It would not be me.

The Model S, except the fake grill, is a gorgeous car. The Model X is a pleasant looking car. Nothing wrong with that. I bought it more for its features and use than looks. I would have bought the Model S but it just would not fit my lifestyle.

 

[Marcos]

"The market" is simply the sum of all the individual personal opinions. If many many people have expressed a similar opinion, we can extrapolate, with some degree of accuracy, as to what "the market" wants. We can also take educate guesses as to what buyers might prefer by learning from history.

History is a poor guide when looking at anything Tesla is doing. History told us electric cars were slow, ugly, and unpopular. So much for history...

However, my solution is much simpler. Simply option the doors, and let people decide for themselves. And do the same for the windscreen, seats and air filter.

As others have pointed out, what you want is an entirely different car, with a completely different design, with all the attendant complexities and difficulties that entails. That wouldn't make Tesla more efficient, it would make it LESS efficient by an exponential factor. However, it appears you are in luck, because a lower-cost model is on the horizon with both with and without FWDs! Whether that is two variants of the 3, or a 3 and Y, fact is, Tesla is working on producing more choice in their lineup.

But for now, it has two cars, both of which are supply constrained, so for now, the market has spoken and Tesla is the winner. All that's left is for it to figure out how to most efficiently meet that demand, no small feat as we're seeing.

 

[larmor]

FWIW, can't find any more inventory MS with third row (thanks Hank at ev-cpo.com). So I'm shopping for a performance MS with third row & AP or... just order an MX without performance. Reported MX sales may be lousy in q1, but from a consumer standpoint, can't wait to see it in showroom. Seeing is believing when getting a family car....

 

[CTemp222]

FWIW, can't find any more inventory MS with third row (thanks Hank at ev-cpo.com). So I'm shopping for a performance MS with third row & AP or... just order an MX without performance. Reported MX sales may be lousy in q1, but from a consumer standpoint, can't wait to see it in showroom. Seeing is believing when getting a family car....

I would wait to see one in person before ordering just to be safe. But i'm sure the Model X will fit your needs, you'll just have to wait longer.