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Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by hobbes, Jun 21, 2015.

?

How many deliveries do you expect for Q1 2015?

Poll closed Jun 30, 2015.
  1. Less than 9000

    1.5%
  2. 9000 to 9499

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 9500 to 9999

    1.5%
  4. 10,000 to 10,499

    6.1%
  5. 10,500 to 10,999

    13.6%
  6. 11,000 to 11,499

    28.8%
  7. 11,500 to 11,999

    25.8%
  8. 12,000 to 12,499

    18.2%
  9. 12,500 to 12,999

    3.0%
  10. 13,000 or more

    1.5%
  1. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    #1 hobbes, Jun 21, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2015
    I know we have this for the whole year, but I thought it would be fun doing this just for the quarter, too.
    Please post your prediction for Q2 deliveries as a number and also enter the poll, so we can see results graphically also.

    Deadline: June 30, because on July 1-3 (on the 3rd Tesla announces the sales number) there will be a lot of new numbers out making the guessing much easier.

    Shareholder Letter Q1 said 10,045 deliveries in Q1, outlook of 10,000 to 11,000 in Q2.


    My estimate: 12,000 deliveries
     
  2. Ugliest1

    Ugliest1 S85: "Sparky"

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    Looking at the actual poll question, I expect 10,045 deliveries for Q1 :cool:

    And I'll go with 12,345 for Q2.
     
  3. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Arghh... :crying:. A moderator please help me before everyone has seen it!! Can´t find a way to correct that myself.
     
  4. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Even mods can't fix a poll question/answers. Only option is to start a new thread, and then I can close this one.
     
  5. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    O.k., thanks. But I guess it is too late now and most people don´t seem to care, so I will leave it like that.

    Would be cool though if everybody did post their actual number in addition to participating in the poll so we can find a winner in the end!!
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    11,745 for Q2

    I will second 10,045 number for Q1.
     
  7. Crowded Mind

    Crowded Mind Member

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    I see what you did there and hope you're right. I'll go with 11,550.
     
  8. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    11,450 for Q2
     
  9. 32no

    32no Member

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    Why are we so optimistic here? The median is currently between 11,500 and 11,999. The guidance was between 10,000 and 11,000 deliveries and 12,500 production. Anyway, before I add my opinion, I would like to show you guys Logical Thought's opinion (AKA Mark Spiegel, the owner of Stanphyl, a hedge fund that is short Tesla):



    However, he updated it when I called him out in the comments section of a recent Randy Carlson article. This is what he updated to:



    My own prediction: 11,400 cars delivered, 13,400 produced.
     
  10. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    I guess because we agree Tesla lowballed guidance.
     
  11. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    we're in dangerous territory by propagating this notion so much...next thing is the media picks this up and starts reporting "experts" polls projecting 13k deliveries in Q2.... next thing we know is that 13k is expected by the media and the Street and traders so then even if Tesla were to publish 12000 deliveries the stock tanks 5-10% instead of popping up 5-10%
     
  12. drinkerofkoolaid

    drinkerofkoolaid Active Member

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    I'm still wondering how Tesla will account for revenue from Powerwall sales. Do utilities and companies that are placing massive orders pay in advance with these types of projects? Very curious how many "reservations" Tesla has received and if investors will care, since Tesla isn't requiring a deposit for "reservations" from individual people. Has anyone who made a reservation for a Powerwall or Powerpack been asked to pay a deposit?
     
  13. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    The projects pay the installers. The installers pay Tesla when after an order is shipped. Net 30 or whatever is the contract.

    anyway, I would estimate 11,133 for Q2 but I think they may not make it entirely clear the exact CPO sales number.
     
  14. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    The fact that used to happen on such a regular basis then proven wrong creates a resistance to it happening again.

    Reports on credible financial news sites on "whisper" Tesla numbers used to get out of control.

    Less so lately.
     
  15. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Europe had 800 registrations more in Apr+May (approx 1800) than Jan+Feb (approx 1000). No CPO program here. No known problems with factory or logistics fits this picture. No reason for me to believe that relative demand should be significantly weaker in other parts of the world or that Tesla would change the proportions by which they distribute by region. So assuming Europe has about 1000 more for whole of Q2 over Q1 and the same for rest of the world gives 12,000.

    Disclaimer: I am long and not trading any shares, options etc. based on this, neither should you. I could be completely wrong and US sales could be down as much as Europe is up or June could be down in Europe as much as Apr+May were up.
     
  16. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Totally agree. I would rather reduce expectations and have a big beat than the other way around. I am not confident that the release of the numbers will be a big positive catalyst....I am more hopeful that some good information will come out of the TMConnect about a week later.
     
  17. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    exercising restraint on predicting a number, even though I am optimistic.
     
  18. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    Except then you look at the 70D being released in Q2 and already stated as 1/3 of their demand with most of those going to NA and I have to think that we are likely to see a handy beat this Q

    11550
     
  19. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    11,392

    How come I am giving an exact number?

    Because at this point to me it is just as likely as 11,390 or 11,400. Just a -somewhat intelligent- guess.
     
  20. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Waalllll, you guys know about me and significant digits

    or are you not paying attention?:biggrin:

    So, in line with my 6 x 10^4 for CY 2015, I'll go with 1.2 X 10^4 for 2Q.

    ​I can hardly lose......
     

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