Simple VIN counting has me seeing 27-28k produced this quarter, and around 25k delivered. As you know, there is the counter argument of VIN skipping, and/or moving cars directly to unsold inventory.
OK -- here are some back of the envelope numbers using different methods. Lots of variables here so please take it with a large grain of salt!
Production method: 2200/wk (conservative) x 13 weeks (no breaks this quarter, apparently) = 28600 produced. Assuming vehicles in transit increase by 1.5-2k and inventory increases by 500 = 26100-26600
VIN method 1
S: 2/28 to 5/31 VINs 1890xx to 2042xx
US order cutoff June 6 (sooner for some).
3 month VIN run rate of 15200 plus 1 extra week compared to Q1 cutoff (1200) = 16400
Assume S in transit increase 500-1000
Assume net 200 demo/showroom/inventory S increase
15200-15700 S
Model S VIN method 2
188xxx and earlier 2500
189xxx 500
190-202 13000
203xxx-205xxx 2000
Assume 3500 total in transit 500 net increase in inventory
14K
X Vin Method 1
VIN run rate 11260/Q
Plus 1 month backlog =15K
Assume 500 net to inventory 500-1000 net increase in transit
13500-14000 X
X VIN Method 2: Straight VIN count -- 41xxx-55xxx =14000-(1-1.5K increase in inventory and transit) = 12500-13000
Total S plus X VIN methods 26.5K+