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Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by EinSV, May 21, 2017.

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What is your Estimate for Q2 2017 Deliveries

Poll closed Jul 2, 2017.
  1. Over 29,000

    1.8%
  2. 27,001-29,000

    6.4%
  3. 25,001-27,000

    40.0%
  4. 23,001-25,000

    36.4%
  5. 21,001-23,000

    9.1%
  6. 19,001-21,000

    3.6%
  7. 17,001-19,000

    1.8%
  8. 17,000 or less

    0.9%
  1. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    I don't think CPOs will hurt much and possibly help. They are a sign of lease renewals or trade-ins. Tesla has the highest projected retention rate. Resale is more advertising. After finally getting an X in my neighborhood, suddenly there seems to be three by our home and seemingly a lot more on the road lately. I think more Tesla's mean more rolling advertising and more sales. It's all good under the hood:)
     
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  2. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Cars also arrived in SKorea around the middle of the month. Similar numbers to Dubai I would imagine.
     
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  3. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    S Korea and Dubai are new markets for this quarter right?

    My impression is first shipments of vehicles to new markets ought to sell out. Especially low numbers in the hundreds. This should compensate for Hong Kong and then we meet H1 guidance?

    Trying to be pragmatic/cautiously optimistic.
     
  4. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Correct.
    I speculate that 400-500 cars were delivered to SKorea, and Dubai combined. That wouldn't compensate for the very large numbers sold in Hong Kong last quarter but should take a little of the sting out.

    Thing is ... last quarter was not the only quarter Tesla managed to sell 25k cars. So I don't totally buy the bear argument that it will be impossible to make 25k deliveries this quarter due to lack of Hong Kong sales.
     
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  5. MXWing

    MXWing Well-Known Member

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    Right. Reason why I have any concerns at all on deliveries is the impact on weekly options.
    Shorts get rolled sonner or later but as a bull I have to assess the wisdom of adding more tsla leverage going into next week and week after.

    I bet against q1 with a covered call and got smoked. Ate ramen for awhile to buy back shares I already owned.

    Not smart to bet against Tesla so it's gonna be bull or no position. Would love to take a bull one if we can get more fidelity.
     
  6. Starno

    Starno Active Member

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  7. dw4ngg

    dw4ngg Member

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  8. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    A very definite push to get late in the month production models to US owners. Including East Coast customers, who only ordered end of May. Thoughts?

    Wild speculation... flurry of orders during the Trump pull out of Paris accord.
     
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  9. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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    They had big selling points ever time though. Model X ramp up, Model S facelift, 60kWh battery back, P100D, AP2, end of free SC, and 100D.

    In Q2 the Supercharger and 100D could still have and effect looking at deliveries in Norway, so it might work out if other countries show a similar effect.
     
  10. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #30 EinSV, Jun 28, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2017
    Updated Q2 estimates -- I think production should be especially strong so am sticking my neck out a bit more. Deliveries also still looking very good to me:

    26,500 deliveries
    28,100 production
     
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  11. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    @schonelucht, I have looked at Q2 deliveries a few different ways and have a hard time seeing how the odds don't favor a beat of 50K guidance in H1 (25K in Q2).

    I know you track this pretty carefully -- what do you think?
     
  12. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    How is online inventory looking? Have you checked?
     
  13. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    I only have access to ev-cpo and nothing seems amiss there, but I don't have access to "hidden" inventory.

    The ways the VINs and order cutoff dates have gone, even assuming 1000-2000 additional vehicles in transit compared to Q1 (which I think is likely) and 1000 extra vehicles into inventory/loaner pool I have it coming out a beat. I will try to post more details later but am also interested in what others are seeing.
     
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  14. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Simple VIN counting has me seeing 27-28k produced this quarter, and around 25k delivered. As you know, there is the counter argument of VIN skipping, and/or moving cars directly to unsold inventory.
     
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  15. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    On a recent factory tour shift goal on the Model X body assembly line was 105 cars/shift. There was no production on Saturday. So assuming 10 shifts per week of MX BIW line operation yields 1,050 MX/week (assume that on average they hit their goals). I do not believe that MS BIW line has ever exceeded average production of 1200 MS/week. So adding the two and multiplying by 12 working weeks in Q2 yields production of 2250 x 12 = 27,000. I believe that this is optimistic figure, so IMO total production will be 26 - 27K of MS/MX,with deliveries being 1-2K lower.

    So my expectation for deliveries is 24k - 26k of MS and MX.
     
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  16. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #36 EinSV, Jun 29, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
    OK -- here are some back of the envelope numbers using different methods. Lots of variables here so please take it with a large grain of salt!

    Production method: 2200/wk (conservative) x 13 weeks (no breaks this quarter, apparently) = 28600 produced. Assuming vehicles in transit increase by 1.5-2k and inventory increases by 500 = 26100-26600

    VIN method 1
    S: 2/28 to 5/31 VINs 1890xx to 2042xx

    US order cutoff June 6 (sooner for some).

    3 month VIN run rate of 15200 plus 1 extra week compared to Q1 cutoff (1200) = 16400

    Assume S in transit increase 500-1000

    Assume net 200 demo/showroom/inventory S increase

    15200-15700 S

    Model S VIN method 2

    188xxx and earlier 2500

    189xxx 500

    190-202 13000

    203xxx-205xxx 2000

    Assume 3500 total in transit 500 net increase in inventory

    14K

    X Vin Method 1

    VIN run rate 11260/Q

    Plus 1 month backlog =15K

    Assume 500 net to inventory 500-1000 net increase in transit

    13500-14000 X

    X VIN Method 2: Straight VIN count -- 41xxx-55xxx =14000-(1-1.5K increase in inventory and transit) = 12500-13000

    Total S plus X VIN methods 26.5K+
     
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  17. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Nice work.
    Why do you think in-transit will be more for this quarter than q1? There was a significant shutdown during peak US designated production period during q1 that some people thought would lead to greater spill over into this quarter. Note that InsideEV numbers are higher for first two months of this quarter than last quarter for US deliveries.
     
  18. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    @EinSV, how do you know that the was 13 weeks of production in Q2, rather than the usual 12?
     
  19. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #39 EinSV, Jun 29, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
    I don't know for sure, but I have heard nothing of a shutdown, and S spreadsheet shows production straight through this week, when I thought there would be a shutdown based on typical practice. Multiple entries for production starts and ends this week from different people. There is a big wildcard in that production could have been curtailed/reduced due to interruptions from Model 3 production buildout. But VIN methods seem to come up with similar results which makes me feel a little better about the numbers (with the caveat that there are always a bunch of wildcards ....)
     
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  20. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #40 EinSV, Jun 29, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
    Partly being conservative since in transit in Q1 was lower than previous two quarters, and also new locations opening (such as Korea/UAE). Also, based on belief that production seems to be running straight through the end of the quarter so less time for deliveries.
     
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