Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

[geneclean55]

I don't know for sure, but I have heard nothing of a shutdown, and S spreadsheet shows production straight through this week, when I thought there would be a shutdown based on typical practice. Multiple entries for production starts and ends this week from different people. There is a big wildcard in that production could have been curtailed/reduced due to Model 3 buildouts. But VIN methods seem to come up with similar results which makes me feel a little better about the numbers (with the caveat that there are always a bunch of wildcards ....)

For what it is worth, production start, and production end columns on model s spreadsheet, don't show any week long gaps for this quarter.

Edit: There is a smaller gap in production records of ~4 days around Easter. Maybe just coincidence or some slowing of activity over that Holiday period.

 

[hobbes]

27,500/26,000

 

[EinSV]

For what it is worth, production start, and production end columns on model s spreadsheet, don't show any week long gaps for this quarter.

Yep. I assume most of this week's production will be delivered next quarter but something to factor in ....

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've been posting about this many times, Tesla needs to increase in transit pipeline drastically before ramping up M3 deliveries. They just can't afford back-loaded deliveries within the quarter, they have to even them out for each month of a quarter. Simple math shows that for an average global in transit time of 5 weeks, assuming production of 2,200 cars/week, they need 11K MS/MX in the pipeline. So I expect them to gradually increase the pipeline over couple of quarters to hit his number

 

[geneclean55]

@schonelucht, I have looked at Q2 deliveries a few different ways and have a hard time seeing how the odds don't favor a beat of 50K guidance in H1 (25K in Q2).

I know you track this pretty carefully -- what do you think?

You were pretty close with your Q1 estimate .. so fingers crossed!

 

[mrdoubleb]

I've been posting about this many times, Tesla needs increase in transit pipeline drastically before ramping up M3 deliveries. They just can't afford back-loaded deliveries within the quarter, they have to even them out for each month of a quarter. Simple math shows that for an average global in transit time of 5 weeks, assuming production of 2,200 cars/week, they need 11K MS/MX in the pipeline. So I expect them to gradually increase the pipeline over couple of quarters o hit his number

Agreed.
Also, this will help S&X as well. Instead of waiting until they have e.g. 5k S&X to fill a ship for Europe (or Asia), they could be sending one weekly with lots of 3s and some S&X mixed in. So even before the local Gigafactory comes online, this will shorten order-to-delivery time for S&X customers outside NA and even the load on the local delivery teams.

 

[EinSV]

I've been posting about this many times, Tesla needs increase in transit pipeline drastically before ramping up M3 deliveries. They just can't afford back-loaded deliveries within the quarter, they have to even them out for each month of a quarter. Simple math shows that for an average global in transit time of 5 weeks, assuming production of 2,200 cars/week, they need 11K MS/MX in the pipeline. So I expect them to gradually increase the pipeline over couple of quarters o hit his number

I also assumed a fairly significant ramp-up of in-transit vehicles but a higher number would obviously impact delivery estimates. I would be a little surprised if in-transit vehicles increased by much more than 2K in one quarter (to around 6500) but you never know for sure ....

 

[EinSV]

You were pretty close with your Q1 estimate .. so fingers crossed!

Thanks! I did miss Q4 by a couple thousand due to the hold-up of deliveries at the port in China. There are so many wildcards it is hard to have a high level of confidence in these numbers ....

 

[dennis]

With the flushing if the high mileage CPO's that had been used for service loaners and replacing them with P100D's (according to Elon), a larger portion of production is likely to go into service loaners than your numbers show. The CPO's will not show up as new sales, whereas used demo inventory would. This means that every CPO taken out of the service loaner pool this quarter requires a car to be produced that doesn't count as a delivery.

 

[T3SLA3]

When will Tesla release the figures?
(I think I read early next week, but I can't find it again)

 

[EinSV]

With the flushing if the high mileage CPO's that had been used for service loaners and replacing them with P100D's (according to Elon), a larger portion of production is likely to go into service loaners than your numbers show. The CPO's will not show up as new sales, whereas used demo inventory would. This means that every CPO taken out of the service loaner pool this quarter requires a car to be produced that doesn't count as a delivery.

That's a great point. I do know they have also been wanting to bulk up the loaner fleet, which I tried to factor into my WAG of increased inventory. Any idea how much loaner to CPO turnover there was?

 

[dennis]

That's a great point. I do know they have also been wanting to bulk up the loaner fleet, which I tried to factor into my WAG of increased inventory. Any idea how much loaner to CPO turnover there was?

It could approximate the number of high mileage CPO's that were offered for sale this quarter. While they could have been trade-ins that were just sitting around until Tesla figured out the 2 year/100K max miles warranty program, I believe that previously Tesla just wholesaled high mileage trade-ins that didn't meet their criteria for CPO's and weren't needed as service loaners. I personally had a rather beat 2013 pre-AP1 Model S as a service loaner about a year ago. It fit the profile of the sub-$40K cars Tesla offered this quarter.

 

[EinSV]

It could approximate the number of high mileage CPO's that were offered for sale this quarter. While they could have been trade-ins that were just sitting around until Tesla figured out the 2 year/100K max miles warranty program, I believe that previously Tesla just wholesaled high mileage trade-ins that didn't meet their criteria for CPO's and weren't needed as service loaners. I personally had a rather beat 2013 pre-AP1 Model S as a service loaner about a year ago. It fit the profile of the sub-$40K cars Tesla offered this quarter.

Thanks. I don't know how to track that number down, but even assuming a net 1000 vehicles are added to inventory and 2000 to transit (up to 6650) I still come up with a beat. I would also note that Tesla cut off orders on about June 6 in the U.S., which is earlier than it needed to if it were worried about making the numbers. It is a little hard for me to believe they would have prioritized shifting a large volume of cars into the loaner fleet if they had a chance to deliver the cars to customers and beat the high end of guidance, which would be a pretty tempting target going into the Model 3 launch.

Obviously there are lots of wild cards so hard to be sure but I continue to think the odds are in favor of a beat.

 

[schonelucht]

@schonelucht, I have looked at Q2 deliveries a few different ways and have a hard time seeing how the odds don't favor a beat of 50K guidance in H1 (25K in Q2).

Unfortunately I don't think I have spent enough time this quarter around to give better insight. Halfway through I estimated that Tesla will reach the lower end of their guidance. But many indicators for June are more positive. So I hope (and believe) they will do more towards the upper end of their guidance (ie, near 25k).

 

[EinSV]

When will Tesla release the figures?
(I think I read early next week, but I can't find it again)

Usually within 3 days of end of quarter (so by July 3). The last 4 were delivered on either the 2nd or 3rd day of the month IIRC.

 

[dc_h]

On a recent factory tour shift goal on the Model X body assembly line was 105 cars/shift. There was no production on Saturday. So assuming 10 shifts per week of MX BIW line operation yields 1,050 MX/week (assume that on average they hit their goals). I do not believe that MS BIW line has ever exceeded average production of 1200 MS/week. So adding the two and multiplying by 12 working weeks in Q2 yields production of 2250 x 12 = 27,000. I believe that this is optimistic figure, so IMO total production will be 26 - 27K of MS/MX,with deliveries being 1-2K lower.

So my expectation for deliveries is 24k - 26k of MS and MX.

You really think they haven't tweaked S production the last year? Seems like X is still slowly creeping up to equal the S, but would like to see combined production hit 2500 this year. Not as important as Model 3, but margins on each S/X over 100,000 h
If so, do you think they need to redesign both cars to increase production much more? Or just line processes after 3 goes live?

 

[NannerAirCraft]

My prediction:
Production: 27,000
Deliveries: 25,750

I think when broken down between S&X it will be 13,750 S and 12,000 X.

 

[sunhelm]

So Tesla just rolled out new performance upgrades to S and X. Some more than a second quicker citing hardware and software improvements for new cars. On July 1st. Which means H1 must be in the bag if this demand lever could wait till Q3.

 

[dc_h]

I stopped by our local Tesla store and scheduled a test drive for Monday. I'm a model 3 customer, but stock owner for almost 5 years and haven't driven one yet.
Customers were all excited, like kids. Sales guy said they did twice Q1 business w 200 v 100 in Q1.

 

[dw4ngg]

So Tesla just rolled out new performance upgrades to S and X. Some more than a second quicker citing hardware and software improvements for new cars. On July 1st. Which means H1 must be in the bag if this demand lever could wait till Q3.

It was planned for Q3 concurrent with M3 production from the beginning. They're gradually making the MS and MX more marketable bc they know M3 will sell itself and there's alrdy a huge back order for it.