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Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

What is your Estimate for Q2 2017 Deliveries


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It was planned for Q3 concurrent with M3 production from the beginning. They're gradually making the MS and MX more marketable bc they know M3 will sell itself and there's alrdy a huge back order for it.
I'm sure that is the goal. My point is they could also introduce this just a month earlier to increase demand if that was a concern.
 
S Korea and Dubai are new markets for this quarter right?

My impression is first shipments of vehicles to new markets ought to sell out. Especially low numbers in the hundreds. This should compensate for Hong Kong and then we meet H1 guidance?

Trying to be pragmatic/cautiously optimistic.
Also, New Zealand opened up towards end of Feb 2017. Delivered a couple dozen last year and will probably deliver 200 this year.
 
You really think they haven't tweaked S production the last year? Seems like X is still slowly creeping up to equal the S, but would like to see combined production hit 2500 this year. Not as important as Model 3, but margins on each S/X over 100,000 If so, do you think they need to redesign both cars to increase production much more? Or just line processes after 3 goes live?

From the most recent earnings call, courtesy of Seeking Alpha:

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.
Well, I think, we feel pretty good about achieving the sort of the 100K – roughly 100K total for the year for Model S and Model X, combined. That's where we kind of want to be. The manufacturing system and the supply chain is all sort of set up for that level. We continue to be surprised by how sort of frankly naïve people are – a lot of people are about production and supply chain. It's as though there is some like easy way to increase production. It's truly not. Any given production system, you design it for optimal output and then you aim to improve efficiency, reliability, quality, and so forth at that output. But the Model S and Model X system as we said last year, was designed for 100,000 units, and now initially to get to that rate, we have to use a lot of overtime, a lot of expediting, and that affected our gross margin on the car. And now we're sort of at steady state with kind of the top part of that S-curve that we're targeting. And so now focus for Model S and Model X is improving production efficiency, continuing to improve quality and...

and

Yeah, and internal costs and so forth to sort of and to get the automotive gross margin of Model S and Model X to the 30% level that we've been aspiring to for a while.

From visiting the factory, you can see what parts are busy and what parts are not. Increasing beyond 100,000 a year for S/X is possible, but not something they are focused on doing right now. Cost efficiency is what they are looking at for the S/X now. The margins on the X have been terrible, so getting them above 25% is huge, especially while maintaining production at 24-26k a quarter.

After the 3, they can loop back on the S and the X.
 

Hat tip to @T3slaTulips for nailing the deliveries with a 22K estimate:

22,000 deliveries
24,500 production

No VIN counts in this guess, purely a wild guess based off 3 points:
1. Q1's 25,000+ included overhang of 2,000 (stuck on boat in China) from Q4. [so really 23k+]
2. Elon Musk stating the Model 3 name was causing confusion about it being the next generation/better.
3. Reintroduction of free Supercharging as a demand lever. (I've seen a nice counterpoint to this as someone mentioned this could be to generate goodwill as Model S/X switch to 21-70's with either better range, faster charging, or both!)

@AlMc was the first to predict 26K production, which I believe was the closest to 25708 (A couple others predicted 26K as well).

After being too pessimistic in Q1, TMC (including me) were overly optimistic this quarter. I don't expect many of us were aware of the 100 kWh pack production issues (I wasn't).
 
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The 100kWh seems to be more talking point than real problem. If they build 3000 more than sold overall (including a lot of P100D) it is for inventory and loaner purposes, even some abl borrowing. If they make 100kWh inventory ahead of paying customers, there is something wrong with that. However, tracking vin numbers in June shows a good idea of what Q3 will be like. Heavy emphasis on spotlighting Model 3 while active selling cars in inventory to Model 3 reservation holders. My guess is on page one of this thread and I was low in the bell curve and still above sales numbers. The production building cars out of parts in stock is needed to keep the factory buzzing. Cars are worth more than parts and inventory build is expected to continue.

When can we start guessing for Q3?
 
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The 100kWh seems to be more talking point than real problem. If they build 3000 more than sold overall (including a lot of P100D) it is for inventory and loaner purposes, even some abl borrowing. If they make 100kWh inventory ahead of paying customers, there is something wrong with that. However, tracking vin numbers in June shows a good idea of what Q3 will be like. Heavy emphasis on spotlighting Model 3 while active selling cars in inventory to Model 3 reservation holders. My guess is on page one of this thread and I was low in the bell curve and still above sales numbers. The production building cars out of parts in stock is needed to keep the factory buzzing. Cars are worth more than parts and inventory build is expected to continue.

When can we start guessing for Q3?
What is your guess for Q3?
 
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~90% members participating in the poll overestimated this time. Time to re-calibrate your models?

So were those anecdotes of service centers overloaded with cars to deliver this time compared to previous quarters all fake news?
 
What is your guess for Q3?

I think stock price action will partly dictate buying in Q3. Vin issuances also should help define what to expect. The new quicker upgrades to cars should do something, but not a whole lot of upgrading will happen just to get a slight boost in acceleration. It is getting silly with new faster 0-60 times. Anyone can dump battery power through a fatter contactor through the speed control at tire shredding amp draw. The real answer is lower prices, more sales and service centers, better quality, more and more supercharger and destination chargers and more. I want to see Tesla lead in the real desires of some, which is V2H and V2G. I would want to see the car be the power wall. That is what the EV industry needs. My current models do not predict a Q3 sales number any better than Q2 including Model 3 in the mix. But waiting to see how this week plays out. If the stock stays up, more buyers may commit. If not, saving face may occur where people wait out good Model 3 release. This means yet again, a stuffed Q3 third month to make the number with a need for heavy USA buyers, perhaps made up of three year lease returns from 2014 going for the new quicker models being laid out now with the current inventory and new orders.
 
I think stock price action will partly dictate buying in Q3. Vin issuances also should help define what to expect. The new quicker upgrades to cars should do something, but not a whole lot of upgrading will happen just to get a slight boost in acceleration. It is getting silly with new faster 0-60 times. Anyone can dump battery power through a fatter contactor through the speed control at tire shredding amp draw. The real answer is lower prices, more sales and service centers, better quality, more and more supercharger and destination chargers and more. I want to see Tesla lead in the real desires of some, which is V2H and V2G. I would want to see the car be the power wall. That is what the EV industry needs. My current models do not predict a Q3 sales number any better than Q2 including Model 3 in the mix. But waiting to see how this week plays out. If the stock stays up, more buyers may commit. If not, saving face may occur where people wait out good Model 3 release. This means yet again, a stuffed Q3 third month to make the number with a need for heavy USA buyers, perhaps made up of three year lease returns from 2014 going for the new quicker models being laid out now with the current inventory and new orders.

I think you can forget V2H and V2G from Tesla. Tesla has joined-up thinking on BEVs, solar, batteries and autonomy. If you think batteries are gong to become cheap, V2G and V2H end up being a lot of complication for little value. If I want leadership from Tesla it would be in producing a decent turnkey system for charging at multi-dwelling units. If a 4-cabinet Supercharger site can be installed for $150k, I wonder how much a 10-headed 1-cabinet Supercharger-based parking-lot charging system would cost...
 
~90% members participating in the poll overestimated this time. Time to re-calibrate your models?

I don't think we give enough credit to the differences between production and delivery. It's a thankless job and often an imperfect science, but @bonaire is really the only one here making an effort to work on understanding it.
 
The 100kWh seems to be more talking point than real problem. If they build 3000 more than sold overall (including a lot of P100D) it is for inventory and loaner purposes, even some abl borrowing. If they make 100kWh inventory ahead of paying customers, there is something wrong with that. However, tracking vin numbers in June shows a good idea of what Q3 will be like. Heavy emphasis on spotlighting Model 3 while active selling cars in inventory to Model 3 reservation holders. My guess is on page one of this thread and I was low in the bell curve and still above sales numbers. The production building cars out of parts in stock is needed to keep the factory buzzing. Cars are worth more than parts and inventory build is expected to continue.

If the 100 kWh pack production wasn’t solved until June, that’s too late for any overseas markets. It is possible they had enough to fulfill orders on hand for U.S. and Canada in June, hence no mad rush beyond normal end of quarter mad rush. Production ended up robust, slightly higher than Q1. They may have chosen at that point to make 100 kWh vehicles for demo for the U.S., and sell off more of the inventory 75’s domestically. After all, with a coming change in hardware, they need to clear out the old stock of 75’s. They chose to restock with 100’s because the new 75’s weren’t getting built until June 19th and apparently nearly all of that production went to named customers, probably to help the transition so that there were fewer people cancelling and re-ordering.
 
If the 100 kWh pack production wasn’t solved until June, that’s too late for any overseas markets.

It was solved before. Take a look a the daily deliveries updates for Norway. June had 1 in 3 cars as a 100kWh model. Last days of May as well. May still have been too late for overseas markets with a longer shipping delay like China or Australia.
 
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