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Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by EinSV, May 21, 2017.

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What is your Estimate for Q2 2017 Deliveries

Poll closed Jul 2, 2017.
  1. Over 29,000

    1.8%
  2. 27,001-29,000

    6.4%
  3. 25,001-27,000

    40.0%
  4. 23,001-25,000

    36.4%
  5. 21,001-23,000

    9.1%
  6. 19,001-21,000

    3.6%
  7. 17,001-19,000

    1.8%
  8. 17,000 or less

    0.9%
  1. sunhelm

    sunhelm Member

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    I'm sure that is the goal. My point is they could also introduce this just a month earlier to increase demand if that was a concern.
     
  2. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Seems like a new demand lever every quarter. Having their own stores and best online presence and I think helps prioritize innovation. Skeptics keep thinking they will run out of gas after each new program.
     
    • Like x 2
  3. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Also, New Zealand opened up towards end of Feb 2017. Delivered a couple dozen last year and will probably deliver 200 this year.
     
    • Informative x 2
  4. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Voltage makes me tingle.

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    Agree. If hitting Q2 numbers was a concern they would have put this out earlier.
     
    • Like x 2
  5. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    From the most recent earnings call, courtesy of Seeking Alpha:

    and

    From visiting the factory, you can see what parts are busy and what parts are not. Increasing beyond 100,000 a year for S/X is possible, but not something they are focused on doing right now. Cost efficiency is what they are looking at for the S/X now. The margins on the X have been terrible, so getting them above 25% is huge, especially while maintaining production at 24-26k a quarter.

    After the 3, they can loop back on the S and the X.
     
    • Helpful x 3
    • Like x 3
    • Informative x 1
  6. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    I was not very clear, the about 200 was the last week of the quarter.
     
  7. Navin

    Navin Member

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    My vote. 26500
     
  8. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    Is it time to start taking predictions as to when they will actually publish the Q2 production and delivery numbers?
     
    • Funny x 2
  9. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    After market close today.
     
    • Like x 2
  10. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29, M3P 80k

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  11. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #71 EinSV, Jul 3, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
    Hat tip to @T3slaTulips for nailing the deliveries with a 22K estimate:

    @AlMc was the first to predict 26K production, which I believe was the closest to 25708 (A couple others predicted 26K as well).

    After being too pessimistic in Q1, TMC (including me) were overly optimistic this quarter. I don't expect many of us were aware of the 100 kWh pack production issues (I wasn't).
     
    • Like x 1
  12. T3slaTulips

    T3slaTulips Member

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    *Bow*

    I hadn't any idea that 100kWh pack production was an issue. :confused:
    I like the implication that they sold a lot of 100kWh units. :D
     
    • Like x 3
  13. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    The 100kWh seems to be more talking point than real problem. If they build 3000 more than sold overall (including a lot of P100D) it is for inventory and loaner purposes, even some abl borrowing. If they make 100kWh inventory ahead of paying customers, there is something wrong with that. However, tracking vin numbers in June shows a good idea of what Q3 will be like. Heavy emphasis on spotlighting Model 3 while active selling cars in inventory to Model 3 reservation holders. My guess is on page one of this thread and I was low in the bell curve and still above sales numbers. The production building cars out of parts in stock is needed to keep the factory buzzing. Cars are worth more than parts and inventory build is expected to continue.

    When can we start guessing for Q3?
     
    • Like x 2
  14. TMSE

    TMSE Member

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    What is your guess for Q3?
     
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  15. mmd

    mmd Active Member

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    ~90% members participating in the poll overestimated this time. Time to re-calibrate your models?

    So were those anecdotes of service centers overloaded with cars to deliver this time compared to previous quarters all fake news?
     
  16. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    I think stock price action will partly dictate buying in Q3. Vin issuances also should help define what to expect. The new quicker upgrades to cars should do something, but not a whole lot of upgrading will happen just to get a slight boost in acceleration. It is getting silly with new faster 0-60 times. Anyone can dump battery power through a fatter contactor through the speed control at tire shredding amp draw. The real answer is lower prices, more sales and service centers, better quality, more and more supercharger and destination chargers and more. I want to see Tesla lead in the real desires of some, which is V2H and V2G. I would want to see the car be the power wall. That is what the EV industry needs. My current models do not predict a Q3 sales number any better than Q2 including Model 3 in the mix. But waiting to see how this week plays out. If the stock stays up, more buyers may commit. If not, saving face may occur where people wait out good Model 3 release. This means yet again, a stuffed Q3 third month to make the number with a need for heavy USA buyers, perhaps made up of three year lease returns from 2014 going for the new quicker models being laid out now with the current inventory and new orders.
     
    • Helpful x 2
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  17. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    I think you can forget V2H and V2G from Tesla. Tesla has joined-up thinking on BEVs, solar, batteries and autonomy. If you think batteries are gong to become cheap, V2G and V2H end up being a lot of complication for little value. If I want leadership from Tesla it would be in producing a decent turnkey system for charging at multi-dwelling units. If a 4-cabinet Supercharger site can be installed for $150k, I wonder how much a 10-headed 1-cabinet Supercharger-based parking-lot charging system would cost...
     
  18. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I don't think we give enough credit to the differences between production and delivery. It's a thankless job and often an imperfect science, but @bonaire is really the only one here making an effort to work on understanding it.
     
    • Like x 4
  19. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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    If the 100 kWh pack production wasn’t solved until June, that’s too late for any overseas markets. It is possible they had enough to fulfill orders on hand for U.S. and Canada in June, hence no mad rush beyond normal end of quarter mad rush. Production ended up robust, slightly higher than Q1. They may have chosen at that point to make 100 kWh vehicles for demo for the U.S., and sell off more of the inventory 75’s domestically. After all, with a coming change in hardware, they need to clear out the old stock of 75’s. They chose to restock with 100’s because the new 75’s weren’t getting built until June 19th and apparently nearly all of that production went to named customers, probably to help the transition so that there were fewer people cancelling and re-ordering.
     
  20. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    It was solved before. Take a look a the daily deliveries updates for Norway. June had 1 in 3 cars as a 100kWh model. Last days of May as well. May still have been too late for overseas markets with a longer shipping delay like China or Australia.
     
    • Informative x 2

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