Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

What is your Estimate for Q2 2017 Deliveries


  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
22,000 deliveries
24,500 production

No VIN counts in this guess, purely a wild guess based off 3 points:
1. Q1's 25,000+ included overhang of 2,000 (stuck on boat in China) from Q4. [so really 23k+]
2. Elon Musk stating the Model 3 name was causing confusion about it being the next generation/better.
3. Reintroduction of free Supercharging as a demand lever. (I've seen a nice counterpoint to this as someone mentioned this could be to generate goodwill as Model S/X switch to 21-70's with either better range, faster charging, or both!)
 
Last edited:
Production 26,000
Deliveries. 22,500


Reason: production rolling along well but many cars going into the loaner program and inventory growing on the lots. That is ok by me as in the long run it is good to have some inventory available for those looking for immediate deliveries as that is what much of the buying public is accustomed.
 
Anecdotally, I've seen more new Modrl X's lately, including neighbors across the street. I think it likely that sales are softer coming up to model 3 production, but maybe they are just getting a little more production from the three shifts? I voted 23-25, but hopefully I've got the under. If they are selling 80% of production and shipping 20% for inventory sales and running at capacity, they should build 27,500 to 32,500 assuming they are at 2500 a week.
 
Anecdotally, I've seen more new Modrl X's lately, including neighbors across the street. I think it likely that sales are softer coming up to model 3 production, but maybe they are just getting a little more production from the three shifts? I voted 23-25, but hopefully I've got the under. If they are selling 80% of production and shipping 20% for inventory sales and running at capacity, they should build 27,500 to 32,500 assuming they are at 2500 a week.

Most definitely the dominant high end SUV in southern CA. More than I can count as well.
 
OK, I am upping my bet. Previously I voted 23-25k, but now I've changed it to the next bracket, 25-27k.

The first 2 months of Q2 have been stellar: in the US we are 1k above and in Europe we are in line with the Q1 quarter-to-date numbers. Asia (or ROW) is a dark horse, as usual, but barring some unseen disaster in production or deliveries over the next 2 weeks, Q1 numbers look like the floor for Q2.

So with that, my guess is: 25,999 deliveries and 26,999 production.

Get ready for the one-two punch in July, with announcing record deliveries and startup of Model 3 production.
 
Q2 Vins so far for MS/MX (as of 6/13)
12100 9030

Prod (MS/MX)
12100 11500 = 23600
Delivery
12400 10100 = 22500 (47,500 for H1)

I have to think possibly a few Model 3 "Production" cars are delivered to employees by June 30 to be included in the Q2 ER as news. Hong Kong should be stagnant for Q2 due to the push in Q1. China is an outlier.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: D-egg-O
Q2 Vins so far for MS/MX (as of 6/13)
12100 9030

Prod (MS/MX)
12100 11500 = 23600
Delivery
12400 10100 = 22500 (47,500 for H1)

I have to think possibly a few Model 3 "Production" cars are delivered to employees by June 30 to be included in the Q2 ER as news. Hong Kong should be stagnant for Q2 due to the push in Q1. China is an outlier.
Is 22500 your Q2 estimate, or Q2 to date.
 
Is 22500 your Q2 estimate, or Q2 to date.
For the quarter. Only "to date" that I have is Vin #s.
Q1 was a "fantastic" beat of estimates based on Hong Kong and China activity. But does it match Denmark in how it blossomed and died after the incentive loss or not, depends on whether the ordering trend goes to Model 3 now or stays with MX/MS later in the year.
 
For the quarter. Only "to date" that I have is Vin #s.
Q1 was a "fantastic" beat of estimates based on Hong Kong and China activity. But does it match Denmark in how it blossomed and died after the incentive loss or not, depends on whether the ordering trend goes to Model 3 now or stays with MX/MS later in the year.
A "fantastic" beat of whose estimates? Your estimate?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: dennis
To confirm, cpos would hurt and not help deliveries right? Wouldn't surprise me if a thousand were sold based on cars I looked at not for sale.

Hundreds of cars shipped to Dubai. I think those could have all been pre sold.

Do they register for Q2 deliveries?