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Q2 2017 Earnings Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by luvb2b, Jul 14, 2017.

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  1. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    at the request of @surfside, i am posting my modeling for q2 2017. this is a pretty crude model based on 12,025 s deliveries and 10,025 x deliveries. i am not expecting any meaningful positive surprises unless they sell a big chunk of zev credits (more than i modeled). looking forward to everyone's input, but as i don't see big upside edge not sure i will play eps meaningfully this time around. as last quarter i'll try to take sensible discussion and model appropriately - the model is not meant to imply that i know anything special.


    luv q2-17Mar-17Dec-16Sep-16
    ls veh % total0.260.260.250.32
    avg price109.10108.06103.28105.40
    revenue
    auto sales1,780,1852,000,0601,719,6091,778,901
    auto leasing227,534254,540254,674231,285
    1 time autopilot20,00035,00000
    zev credits49,010019,840138,541
    total auto2,076,7282,289,6001,994,1232,148,727
    energy storage45,0005,24447,28523,334
    solarcity200,000208,70084,1000
    grohmann17,00022,40000
    services/other182,318170,326159,123126,375
    total revenue2,521,0462,696,2702,284,6312,298,436
    cost of revenue
    auto1,395,0021,496,6491,372,6041,355,102
    auto leasing150,120166,026171,818161,959
    total auto1,545,1221,662,6751,544,4221,517,061
    energy storage47,2506,47360,77924,281
    solarcity140,000145,30067,0000
    grohmann16,15014,90000
    services & other187,787198,976177,152120,359
    total cost of rev1,936,3092,028,3241,849,3531,661,701
    gross profit584,737667,946435,278636,735
    auto gaap gm25.6%27.4%22.6%29.4%
    auto-zev gm23.8%26.3%21.8%24.5%
    storage gm-5.0%-23.4%-28.5%-4.1%
    scty gm30.0%30.4%20.3%0.0%
    grohmann gm5.0%33.5%0.0%0.0%
    services gm-3.0%-16.8%-11.3%4.8%
    opex
    tesla r&d250,000239,070234,960214,302
    tesla sg&a470,000446,637365,909336,811
    1time acq cost067,00015,8070
    solarcity r&d30,00044,80011,0000
    solarcity sg&a145,000127,98874,3000
    total opex895,000925,495701,976551,113
    op income-310,263-257,549-266,69885,622
    interest inc3,0003,0902,1792,858
    interest exp-50,000-46,146-43,104-46,713
    scty interest-65,000-53,200-22,0000
    other income exp0-18,09832,524-11,756
    1time scty gain0088,7000
    pretax income-422,263-371,903-208,39930,011
    income tax12,00025,27811,0708,133
    net income-434,263-397,181-219,46921,878
    non-cont int.-50,000-66,904-98,1320
    net inc to common-384,263-330,277-121,33721,878
    basic shares163,000162,129155,024148,991
    diluted shares163,000162,129155,024156,935
    diluted eps-2.36-2.04-0.780.14
     
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  2. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Thanks, Informative and solid work. My calculations are here 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    I have a little lower revenue and costs on automotive straight sales and little higher on leasing automotive. When you add it up, basically in the same margin of error of a few 10 millions. You have an improvement on services both for income and costs. Why do you think this? If at all, I guess it would go the other way since Tesla introduced more new cars in their loaner fleet and is reducing wait times for parts which must cost them too. At the same time I don't see a reason for increased service income. I also have positive margins on Tesla Energy : all deliveries for this quarter should've come out of the Gigafactory which ramped up for M3 batteries so I am assuming some volume synergies. I am also not sure if Solarcity managed to improve gross margins. What did change was at most SG&A reduction, due to laying off sales staff right? Grohmann I just assume it's basically nothing anymore. Contracts were cancelled quite aggressively. Maybe we see some large penalty payments even due to non-performance.

    All in all, my gross margin is quite close to yours. (557 vs 584) It think that range is going to be about right. But I don't understand why you have SolarCity SG&A rising so aggressively?
     
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  3. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    for services: i simply extrapolated the quarter over quarter growth from q4-16 to q1-17. i felt services / other would increase as (a) used car sales improve, (b) more teslas come off warranty, and (c) supercharging becomes a paid service. as for services costs, i used a -3% gross margin. last quarter it was -17% and the quarter prior -11%. that's simply me hoping they can start pushing services gross margin back towards the zero line.

    for tesla energy, i figured low volume with some fixed costs spread on that low volume would drive zero-ish margins.

    grohmann, not sure but either way bottom line contribution is small.

    on solarcity, not sure i did this 100% correct but when i backed out various 1-timers from solarcity related numbers i got about 44.8m for r&d in q1 17 and 128.0m for sg&a. i turned down the r&d a bit and turned up the sg&a, figuring they have their design and are working on selling it. the aggregate solarcity-related opex is about the same as what i extracted for q1 17.

     
  4. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    Seems plausible. I have to ask, can one of you back into a cashflow model? I think GAAP profit calculations are not very meaningful for the next couple of quarters, while cashflow is.
     
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  5. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Cashflow is going to be a nightmare. CapEx spending is supposed to be in the billions for the gigafactory + model 3 buildout. But somehow Tesla has been able to push it back to the next quarter for all previous quarters. I guess that hammer really needs to fall this quarter but you never know with Tesla. If it is really true that the line hasn't been built, we may see another significant push back on capital spending. Basically swings several hunderds of millions are plausible to the point any prediction I could give at least is meaningless.
     
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  6. Out4aDuck

    Out4aDuck Member

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    @luvb2b,

    Thank you for sharing your detailed estimates. I like to do the same sort of thing, but with somewhat less detail. Starting with last quarter's earnings statement, I estimate the changes line by line. While you and I have made slightly different assumptions along the way, our bottom lines were within 2% of each other.
     
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  7. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Sharing is caring! Looking forward to whatever detail you can give, even it is grossly inline with others.
     
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  8. brian45011

    brian45011 Member

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  9. brian45011

    brian45011 Member

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    Amazingly close (on the bottom line) if you adjust your ZEV credits from +$49 MM to +$100 MM.
     
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  10. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    #10 luvb2b, Aug 2, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
    thanks. doesn't always help to know the answer though.

    they soundly beat my revenues and gross profit numbers, but it was on the back of fewer leased vehicles and more zev credits as you mentioned.

    we may know for sure when the 10q comes out but my suspicion is that tesla energy storage is already positive gross margins.

     
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  11. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    You don't have to wait, it's in the letter:
    Code:
                                                        June 30,        March 31,
    Energy generation and storage revenue ($000)        $286,780         $213,944
    Energy generation and storage gross margin             28.9%            29.1%
    
     
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  12. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    My original calculations were at this link 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Looks like I was quite a bit off in revenue&cost. That seemed to be 10% higher than I anticipated across the board. Main reasons are a better product mix for automotive side and the full recognition the Hawai project for energy. SG&A, R&D and interest expense were reasonably close.

    That's storage + generation. I believe @luvb2b was looking for energy storage. I agree the latter is a the more relevant metric with the winding down of Solarcity door-to-door sales to residentials.
     
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  13. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Well, net cash bleed of $1B this quarter. That's pretty good in my book. But because the positive surprise is due to certain payment milestones not met by suppliers, it's only a temporary effect. This quarter we may see the same amount of cash bleed. But then last quarter of the year should be better. Maybe only a $500M drop and then a cash raise round early next year when Model 3 is really ramping and stock price at new all time highs?
     
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  14. brian45011

    brian45011 Member

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    Several observations:

    The CARB annual fiscal report should be published before the 3Q17 SH letter, so there should be some visibility as to the number of credits that were transferred and the number retained. Also, we should be able to deduce which ICE manufacturer is buying the credits. GHG and CAFE credits (ie the "mouse nuts") are buried in the Auto Sales GM%, and are no longer being disclosed in the 10Qs.

    There are at multiple FASB guidance directives that will have an impact over the next several quarters. One relates to Contracts with Customers (IMO, it will deal with remaining resale and residual value guarantees):

    "The guidance is effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2017; early adoption is permitted for periods beginning after December 15, 2016. The new standard is required to be applied retrospectively to each prior reporting period presented or retrospectively with the cumulative effect of initially applying it recognized at the date of initial application. We have not yet selected a transition method and are evaluating the impact of adopting this guidance."
    Tesla used to recognize, as part of the non-GAAP adjustment, all the GM on resale/residual value guaranteed transactions in the quarter the cars were delivered. I think SEC told them to stop. I THINK the FASB guidance is consistent with those old non-GAAP adjustments and should drop to the bottom line.

    The 10Q should provide more interesting details (like why the 11% Q over Q drop in SG&A? Just SCTY "right-sizing?")



     
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  15. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I would think so. I also would like to understand why service costs are running ahead so much. Is this also due to SCTY?
     
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  16. brian45011

    brian45011 Member

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    Just noticed that in 1Q17, there was a one-time accelerated compensation payment of $25.8 million to Mr. Grohmann:

    "At the time of acquisition, we entered into an incentive compensation arrangement for up to a maximum of $25.8 million of payments contingent upon continued service with us for 36 months after the acquisition date. Such payments would have been accounted for as compensation expense in the periods earned. However, during the three months ended March 31, 2017, we terminated the incentive compensation arrangement and accelerated the payments thereunder. As a result, we recorded the entire $25.8 million as compensation expense during this period, which was included in selling, general and administrative expense in our consolidated statements of operations."

    Also, "a $37.6 million increase in office, information technology and facilities-related expenses to support the growth of our business as well as sales and marketing activities to handle our expanding market presence"
     
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  17. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Brian,
    Many thanks for your continual auditing and reporting on these details. This kind of sharing is easily taken for granted. But wanted to emphasize the value it has on a consistent basis. It does have an impact on investor confidence in what Tesla is doing relative to what they say they are doing,
    and to the forum in general.
    Thank You- much appreciated
     
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  18. brian45011

    brian45011 Member

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    The 10Qs show Tesla paid $109.5 million in cash for Grohman, then paid an additional $25.8 million as accelerated compensation (a severance package?) to the former owner. Apparently, ~$40 million of the purchase cash has been classified as "goodwill." In retrospect, SCTY's acquisitions of Silevo (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/03/06/tesla-to-finally-close-the-door-on-silevo/); Paramount Solar--purchase price $116.5 million and "goodwill" of $50.5 million, and ZEP Solar--purchase price $157.8 million and "goodwill" of $97.8 million https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408356/000156459015000897/R10.htmdo
    not appear to be that astute either. At least the Rive cousins have departed for greener pastures.
     
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  19. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    They have casually mentioned that ZEP work lies deep in the origins of the Solar Roof, so perhaps that purchase was necessary in the long term strategic history; it may just never have happened without that history. In addition, ZEP framing is apparently still being used in the "panel" roof installs.

    I suspect the only part of Silevo being used is a small number of patents, so not wasted, but also probably not good value for money.

    Paramount Solar seems to have been a *completely* worthless acquisition, given that they were almost entirely a direct marketing sales channel and Tesla is now completely shutting down that sales channel.
     
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  20. luvb2b

    luvb2b Member

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    i should have been more clear. i meant tesla energy margins excluding solarcity (mostly the battery storage etc.)

     

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